Week 5 of the NFL season is here, and to close things out, we’ll see the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are coming off a massive Week 4 win over the Baltimore Ravens, and are now 2-2 on the season. As for the Jaguars, they are 3-1 after beating the San Francisco 49ers on the road.
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Week 5’s Best NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Player Props: Jaguars vs. Chiefs
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jaguars +3.5 (-112)
The Jaguars haven’t had too many difficult games this season. Nonetheless, they’re 3-1. While the Chiefs looked good in Week 4, part of it, let’s be honest, was due to Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson getting hurt. That’s not to take away from the Chiefs’ win, but context matters.
This season, the Jaguars play Cover 3 more than any other coverage scheme, and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has struggled against Cover 3 this season, completing just 57.1% of his passes. As for the Chiefs, they play a bunch of different coverages, but Cover 2 is more common than the others. Trevor Lawrence has only faced Cover 2 on 14 attempts this season. Additionally, the Chiefs are allowing nearly five yards per carry. The Jaguars are fourth in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 144.
I’ll take the home underdog.
Brenton Strange Over 3.5 Receptions (-130)
So far this season, the Chiefs are allowing 4.5 targets and 3.75 receptions per game to opposing tight ends. As for Brenton Strange, he’s caught four or more passes in three out of four games, including each of his last two. In his last two games, he’s caught six passes in each.
The Jaguars have no other tight ends who are often targeted. Strange has a 16.7% team target share, which is second on the team. The next most-targeted tight end on the Jaguars is Hunter Long, with a 5.1% team target share. Strange has been heavily involved in the offense, with Travis Hunter playing more defense and Brian Thomas Jr. having some issues getting going.
Isiah Pacheco Under 28.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Through four games, Isiah Pacheco has seen just 42.7% of the Chiefs’ running back carries, trailing Kareem Hunt (48%). Pacheco has finished with 28 yards or fewer in two games. He had 35 yards in the most recent game against the extremely injured Ravens.
The Jaguars have been quite stiff against the run, allowing just 18.25 carries for 63.75 yards per game to opposing running backs. Pacheco doesn’t have the same juice we’re used to seeing from him in the past. He’s been inefficient, averaging just four yards per carry, is on the wrong side of a timeshare, and there’s also a rookie running back with a receiving background in Brashard Smith who’s lurking around.
The Chiefs must get the running game figured out, and through four weeks, neither Pacheco nor Hunt has been productive. Something needs to change. Pacheco will continue to underperform and finish with 28 yards or fewer.
