We get one of the better defensive units in the league with the Houston Texans, but Aaron Rodgers has the capability of finding a way to win. The final game of the Wild Card Round should be just as interesting as each of the matchups this weekend. Let's break down this game with our top NFL Monday Night Football same-game parlay (SGP).
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NFL Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Texans vs. Steelers
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Leg 1: Over 38.5 Points (-105)
- Leg 2: Aaron Rodgers 20+ Completions (-187)
- Leg 3: C.J Stroud 229+ Passing Yards (-112)
The Texans are favored despite being the lower seed and playing on the road, which is no coincidence. They are coming in with a league-leading nine consecutive wins, which also ties a franchise record.
This is that time of year when they say "defense wins championships," and Houston is coming in with one of the top defensive units. They finished the regular season allowing the second-fewest points per game (17.4), with help from all aspects of the defense. The defensive front featuring two Pro Bowlers (Azeez Al-Shaair and Will Anderson Jr.) finished seventh in sacks (47) and fourth in rushing yards allowed per game (93.7). Derek Stingley Jr. is their only defensive back to earn a Pro Bowl, but they are sixth in passing yards allowed per game (185.4) and third in opponents’ passer rating (76.2).
Despite this being a top-tier defense, the team struggled early, with a 3-5 record, due to a lack of offensive support. C.J. Stroud was 20th in EPA per play (0.079) during Weeks 1-7. For the rest of the season, he was sixth (0.238). This win might rely on Stroud’s arm, as the Houston run game has been a weak point this season, averaging 3.9 yards per carry (28th). The Steelers’ run defense has been stingy in recent games, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry over their last three contests.
Does Aaron Rodgers have more run in him? It will be a challenging task in this unfavorable matchup, which is why, despite the higher seeding and playing at home, they are the underdog. The 42-year-old doesn't possess the same magic from his days in Green Bay, but he can lead a team. He's still one of the more precise quarterbacks in the NFL and finished with a 65.7% completion rate. He also gets his best weapon back with DK Metcalf returning from his suspension. What will be a challenge for Houston is the potential size disadvantage they'll have in coverage. The Steelers have a talented group of tight ends, Pat Friermuth, Jonnu Smith, and Darnell Washington, who all have pass-catching abilities. This presents a challenge: do they drop linebackers back into coverage, taking pressure off of Rodgers, or do they have small defensive backs shadowing them? This could be a bend-don't-break situation for the Texans, and Rodgers could have the opportunity to move the ball.
History leans heavily with the Steelers. The Texans have lost all six road playoff games, and the Steelers have won 23 consecutive Monday night home games. Despite the Texans having the matchup advantage, the Steelers at home will be a challenge. This is the only matchup with a total under 40 points, but we could see more points than expected with these two quarterbacks, given their potentially heavier pass schemes.
Parlay Odds: +467
