NFL Parlays & Picks: Best Bets for Week 11 (2025)

NFL Week 11 is on the horizon, so we’re going to hunt for the best value early in the week. Some of the marquee matchups on tap include the Buccaneers vs. Bills, Seahawks vs. Rams, Chiefs vs. Broncos, and Lions vs. Eagles.

It’s been a brutal stretch for my NFL parlays lately. Hopefully, you’ve faded and turned a profit. I’ve adjusted my strategy a bit to ensure we get back into the win column with a pair of plus-odds parlays.

Let’s dive into four divisional matchups and have some fun in Week 11. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL betting analysis and free picks.

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NFL Early Week Parlays: Week 11

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Parlay 1 (+187)

Leg 1: Chicago Bears Moneyline (+134)

We’ve got an NFC North grudge match between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings in Week 11. J.J. McCarthy led the Vikings to an impressive comeback win on the road at Soldier Field in Week 1, spoiling the Bears’ home opener.

Now, it’s Chicago with all of the momentum. Head coach Ben Johnson and quarterback Caleb Williams have been a dynamic duo for the Bears, going 5-1 SU since starting this season 0-2.

McCarthy is 0-2 at home as a starter and has made costly turnovers for Minnesota. The Vikings’ defense is rounding into form with Andrew Van Ginkel back on the edge, yet Chicago is more than willing to lean on its rushing attack to chew up clock and pick up first downs.

Oddsmakers are way too high on the Vikings. It’s hard to beat a division opponent twice, and Chicago has all of the momentum heading into U.S. Bank Stadium.

Let’s bet on the Bears to win outright as a moneyline underdog for the first leg of this early NFL Week 11 parlay.

Leg 2: Houston Texans Moneyline (-420)

Houston heads to Nashville to take on the one-win Tennessee Titans in an AFC South tilt. The Titans’ offense is dreadful, ranked 32nd in points per game (14.4) in 2025.

It won’t be any easier for No. 1 overall pick, quarterback Cam Ward, to elevate his play against the Texans’ defense. Houston is the best scoring defense in the NFL, holding opponents to 15.1 points per game.

Even without C.J. Stroud under center, Davis Mills led the Texans to a huge divisional win at home against Jacksonville on Sunday. Mills’ gutsy performance late in the game should instill confidence against a Titans’ defense ranked 30th in the league, surrendering over 28 points per game.

Instead of laying -7.5 on the road in a divisional game, let’s lay the juice on Houston’s -420 moneyline odds to help our chances of hitting this initial NFL Week 11 moneyline parlay.

Parlay 2 (+163)

The NFC West, undoubtedly the best division in the NFL this season, has a huge showdown in Week 11 between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. This marks the first time these two opponents meet in 2025.

Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold are both playing MVP-caliber football as the franchise quarterbacks of their respective teams. Stafford just torched the 49ers’ defense for over 280 yards and four touchdowns, while Darnold continued to connect with star wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba in a rout of Arizona.

The Rams are at home in SoFi Stadium for this matchup. I trust head coach Sean McVay more than Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald, although Seattle is undefeated on the road this season.

Los Angeles has Super Bowl champion pedigree with Stafford and McVay. Factor in wideout Puka Nacua and the second-ranked scoring defense. The Rams are trending toward another NFC title, with both losses either in overtime or on a blocked field goal attempt returned for a touchdown.

Don’t overthink it. Bet on Los Angeles to win outright at home against the Seahawks in this highly anticipated game within the NFC West.

Leg 2: Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (-190)

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid had a Week 11 bye to prepare for a road trip to face the Denver Broncos. It marks the first time these AFC West rivals play in 2025, with oddsmakers laying -3.5 on the Chiefs and a 44.5 point total.

Since the return of wideout Rashee Rice, Kansas City looks like a much better offense. They did lose to Buffalo on the road during their last game played in Week 9, snapping a three-game winning streak.

Denver’s offense has regressed mightily. Even though the Broncos are riding a seven-game winning streak into this game, quarterback Bo Nix has been throwing interceptions.

Denver’s offense has gone under 300 yards in back-to-back games against the Texans and Raiders. This includes a -3 turnover margin during this recent two-game stretch.

Yes, the Broncos are afforded home-field advantage. However, the Chiefs have dominated Denver during the Mahomes era, going  13-1 SU.

Kansas City will end Denver’s seven-game winning streak on the road at Mile High in Week 11. Let’s cash this second moneyline parlay at +163 odds by backing Mahomes and Reid to shake up the AFC West standings.