NFL Parlays & Picks: Best Bets for Week 12 (2025)

The 2025 NFL season has been filled with parity and no clear-cut Super Bowl favorite through 11 weeks of action. Oddsmakers currently have the Eagles, Rams, Bills, and Chiefs as the four Super Bowl LX winner favorites inside of 10-1.

In Week 11, we finally returned to the win column, going 1-of-2 with my NFL Parlays & Picks: Best Bets for Week 11 (2025). I opted to roll with two moneyline parlays, targeting three favorites and an underdog. As it turns out, the underdog cashed the first +187 NFL Parlay, as the Chicago Bears knocked off the Minnesota Vikings 19-17 via walk-off field goal. Houston’s walk-off field goal against the Titans cashed their heavy moneyline at -420 odds.

For awhile, it looked like the Rams and Chiefs moneyline parlay (+163) was also a winner. Then, Denver’s quarterback, Bo Nix, threw several clutch passes to allow the Broncos to kick a walk-off field goal over Kansas City, extending their win streak to eight games and taking command of the AFC West.

Let’s construct a couple more early winning NFL parlays leading up to Week 12. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL betting analysis and free picks.

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NFL Early Week Parlays: Week 12

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Parlay 1 (+249)

Leg 1: Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers – Under 41.5 (-115)

An NFC North showdown at Lambeau Field between the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers could turn into a dogfight. The Vikings have lost four of their last five games, and now, a struggling Vikings quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, will have to play one of the league’s best scoring defenses.

Micah Parsons and company should limit Minnesota’s explosive plays. The deciding factor in this game is Minnesota’s defense, under DC Brian Flores, making it difficult for Green Bay’s offense to score touchdowns.

The Packers’ offense has been stale lately, finishing with less than 300 yards of total offense in three of its last five games. Green Bay saw QB Jordan Love briefly exit against the Giants in Week 11 before returning to ice the game with a go-ahead touchdown with under five minutes left.

The Vikings have gone under 41.5 in two of McCarthy’s four starts in 2025. In cold, windy conditions, while facing a top-tier defense and a mediocre Packers offense, under 41.5 points is the first play in this two-leg NFL Week 12 parlay.

Leg 2: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Arizona Cardinals – Under 47.5 (-115)

Let’s stay on the point total under as we head out to the Desert for an interconference game between Jacksonville and Arizona. The total is fairly high at 47.5, likely due to the Jaguars’ 35-point explosion in a 35-6 rout of the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11.

Jacoby Brissett has been productive in the Cardinals’ offense, even though it hasn’t led to many wins. Brissett has helped Arizona score at least 22 points in all five starts this season, but now, he’ll face a Jacksonville defense that just held Justin Herbert and the Chargers to 135 total yards of offense.

Jacksonville prefers to establish the run under first-year head coach Liam Coen. Arizona’s defense has had over 40 points scored on it by the Seahawks and 49ers in back-to-back divisional games. Now, they’ll get a chance to force turnovers against Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

Under 47.5 has hit in three of Jacksonville’s last five games. This total is only 1-4 on the under with Brissett as a starter for Arizona. However, I predict a tight game, likely finishing 27-20 or 24-21.

Parlay 2 (+292)

Davis Mills has led the Houston Texans to back-to-back wins during his two starts in relief of quarterback C.J. Stroud. With Stroud remaining in the league’s concussion protocol, oddsmakers have the Texans valued as a +4.5 point home underdog against the Buffalo Bills in Week 12.

Josh Allen and the Bills wound up pulling away from Tampa Bay late in Week 11, logging over 300 passing yards to improve to 7-3. Unfortunately for Allen and the Bills’ offense, Houston’s No. 1 scoring defense awaits on the road.

We’ve seen Houston’s top-tier defense hold four straight teams under 275 total yards of offense. If the Bills cannot establish the run, they tend to fall apart. We saw this happen on the road against the Falcons in Week 6 and against the Dolphins in Week 10. Both of those losses were on the road.

Mills may not be an elite quarterback talent like Allen, however, Houston’s defense is three times better than Buffalo’s. The Bills’ run defense is horrendous, allowing 399 rushing yards to the Dolphins and Buccaneers in back-to-back games.

Houston has covered +4.5 in four of its last five games. Buffalo is typically a heavy favorite amongst public bettors, so let’s grab the points with the Texans as a home underdog in a game that they could wind up winning outright.

Leg 2: New Orleans Saints Moneyline (-102)

Tyler Shough and the New Orleans Saints offense come out of a Week 11 bye with momentum from a 17-7 road win over Carolina in Week 10. The Falcons, meanwhile, are on a downward spiral, dropping five straight games to fall to 3-7.

Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been the issue, scoring 23 or more points in three straight games. It’s been the defense, which has regressed significantly, allowing 323 rushing yards to the Colts and over 400 passing yards to Bryce Young and the Panthers in Week 11.

Falcons head coach Raheem Morris is definitely on the hot seat heading into a divisional road game against the Saints. New Orleans is still adjusting to its new QB1 within head coach Kellen Moore’s offense, but their defense is quietly piecing it together.

New Orleans has held the Bears, Buccaneers, and Panthers to less than 170 passing yards. The run defense has had a couple of bad games, but they did contain Rico Dowdle in Carolina’s explosive backfield during their last time on the field.

The Saints are a new team with Shough. They’ve also finished within a one-score deficit at home against the 49ers and Patriots, which was with QB Spencer Rattler. We need to take advantage of the value on New Orleans’ moneyline as a slight home underdog to boost this second NFL Week 12 parlay to +292 odds.