NFL Parlays & Picks: Best Bets for Week 14 (2025)

Underdogs feasted during Week 13 in the NFL. Big upsets included the Carolina Panthers taking down the Los Angeles Rams as a +10.5 point home underdog, as well as all three underdogs winning on Thanksgiving Day, with the Packers, Cowboys, and Bengals all securing momentum-shifting victories.

The Chicago Bears now sit atop the NFC following a 24-15 win on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles on Black Friday. The Houston Texans knocked off the Indianapolis Colts with C.J. Stroud back under center. The Denver Broncos also extended their win streak to nine games with a one-point overtime win against the Washington Commanders.

My NFL Parlays & Picks: Week 13 (2025) settled 1-1. We turned a profit with the second NFL parlay on Sunday’s slate, cashing +249 odds with the Texans +4.5 and under 42.5 between the Vikings and Seahawks. It was a great way to bounce back from my Thanksgiving Day moneyline favorite parlay with the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles at +111 odds.

I’m back with two early week parlays to tail on a loaded NFL Week 14 slate. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL betting analysis and free picks.

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NFL Early Week Parlays: Week 14

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Parlay 1 (+266)

Leg 1: New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Under 42.5 (-104)

An NFC South matchup features the New Orleans Saints on the road against Tampa Bay in Week 14. The Buccaneers shut down the Saints during their previous matchup this season, beating New Orleans on the road 23-3. leading to Spencer Rattler being benched for Saints rookie quarterback, Tyler Shough.

Shough has looked decent as QB1, throwing for over 230 yards in each of his past three starts for the Saints. New Orleans may be 2-10 but its defense has managed to hold Carolina, Atlanta, and Miami to 24 or fewer points in three straight games.

Tampa Bay has not been as explosive on offense since its Week 9 bye. Aside from a 32-point burst during a 44-32 loss to Buffalo, the Buccaneers have logged 23 or fewer points in five of its last six matchups.

Baker Mayfield’s dealing with a shoulder injury and Shough is still gaining experience in an offense without a ton of depth. Division games tend to be low-scoring due to familiarity, so let’s bet under 42.5 points between the Saints and Buccaneers for the first leg in this early NFL Week 14 parlay.

Leg 2: Washington Commanders vs. Minnesota Vikings – Under 42.5 (-115)

Washington and Minnesota both have had disappointing seasons following 2024. The Commanders and Vikings will go head-to-head at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis in Week 14.

The quarterback situation on both teams is questionable at best. Commanders’ second-year quarterback, Jayden Daniels, has been dealing with various injuries in 2025, forcing Marcus Mariota into Washington’s QB1 role. J.J. McCarthy has been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL this year, plus he’s also been limited with multiple injuries, missing Week 13 due to a concussion.

Washington’s defense has begun to find its stride late in the season. The Commanders have held the Dolphins and Broncos to 43 points across their last two games played. Minnesota’s stale offense is trending downward, offering a great matchup for Washington to gain momentum on defense.

The Vikings’ defense, led by DC Brian Flores, remains the team’s bright spot at 4-8. Minnesota has held the Packers and Seahawks under 300 total yards in back-to-back losses, with the offense scoring six total points during this recent stretch.

Let’s wrap up this first NFL parlay with another point total under. We’re going to bet under 42.5 at -115 odds to boost this early week parlay to +266 odds.

Parlay 2 (+312)

Jacksonville hosts Indianapolis as a marginal home underdog during a massive AFC South matchup in Week 14. The Jaguars and Colts are both 8-4, so a win by either side here will go a long way toward winning the division and clinching a playoff berth.

The Colts are 1-3 SU in their last four games played. This includes losses to the Steelers, Chiefs, and Texans, while their lone win came against Atlanta in overtime. Daniel Jones is dealing with a lower-body injury impacting his mobility, while opposing defenses have begun to effectively contain RB Jonathan Taylor.

The Jaguars have one of the NFL’s best run defenses. They have held six of their past seven opponents under 90 total rushing yards,  which bodes well for their matchup against the Colts’ run-centric offense.

Trevor Lawrence hasn’t had a fantastic season as a passer. However, his head coach, Liam Coen, utilizes his mobility and leans into their dynamic rushing attack to churn out production. The Jaguars have won four of their last five games and could be 5-0 during this stretch if they hadn’t blown a late lead against the Texans on the road.

The Jaguars have only played one home game since October 19th, routing the Chargers 35-6. The Colts historically don’t play well in Jacksonville, and it’s a bad matchup for their offensive scheme. Meanwhile, Indianapolis has surrendered over 100 rushing yards in four of its last five games.

Let’s bet on the home underdogs who have been quietly trending up and bet on the Jaguars moneyline at +116 odds.

Leg 2: Chicago Bears +6.5 (-110)

The Chicago Bears are the second most profitable ATS team in 2025. Under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, the Bears have gone from a laughing stock to the top seed in the NFC.

Overcoming a 0-2 start, Chicago has logged five straight wins, going 9-1 since a Week 2 blowout loss to the Detroit Lions. Caleb Williams has benefitted from the Bears’ run-centric scheme, unlocking rookie running back Kyle Monangai alongside veteran D’Andre Swift for a potent one-two punch in the backfield.

The Bears’ defense lives off turnovers. Chicago has forced multiple turnovers in eight of 12 games this season. Now, they head to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers, who are lurking behind them at 8-3-1.

This is the first of two head-to-head matchups over the next three weeks between the Bears and Packers. Green Bay is 5-7 ATS, compared to Chicago at 8-4. Jordan Love has not been consistently productive within Matt LaFleur’s offense, although they did piece together a strong outing during a win against Detroit on Thanksgiving.

Green Bay’s stout defense, led by edge rusher Micah Parsons, has bailed out the offense on multiple occasions. Even with Packers running back Josh Jacobs back in the lineup, the Bears are riding a ton of momentum off a dominant road win over the Eagles on Black Friday.

This is an NFC North rivalry game that has been dominated by the Packers in recent years. That changes on Sunday. Instead of being aggressive with the Bears’ moneyline, let’s grab +6.5 on the point spread instead.