NFL Parlays & Picks: Best Bets for Week 16 (2025)

NFL Week 16 signals that we’re nearing the end of the 2025 regular season. Stakes are high, with over half of the league still competing for a playoff seed, meaning we’re going to be treated to some excellent football games.

My NFL Parlays & Picks: Week 15 settled 0-2 and 1-3 SU. The lone winner was on the Los Angeles Rams -5.5 during a 41-34 win over the Detroit Lions. Losers included the New York Jets +11.5 and a pair of point total unders, both at 42.5, in the Green Bay vs. Denver and Buffalo vs. New England matchups.

It’s been a tough stretch lately. I’m switching up my approach a bit for Week 16, so tail or fade my latest NFL parlays for the upcoming Week 16 slate . Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL betting analysis and free picks.

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NFL Early Week Parlays: Week 16

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Parlay 1 (+265)

Leg 1: Chicago Bears +2.5 (-115)

Chicago hosts Green Bay for a huge NFC North title showdown at Soldier Field in Week 16. This is the second matchup between these divisional opponents since Week 14, with the Bears falling short on the final play of the game via a Caleb Williams interception in the red zone.

The Packers just lost star edge rusher, Micah Parsons, to an ACL tear during a loss to Denver in Week 15. Now, Green Bay’s ability to generate pressure is going to be less consistent, placing more of an emphasis on the offense and QB Jordan Love to stay ahead of schedule.

We’ve seen Green Bay’s offense sputter plenty of times this season. The Bears are also one of the most profitable ATS teams in the NFL this year at 9-5. Conversely, Green Bay is 6-8 ATS.

Chicago hasn’t lost at home since Week 1. Let’s grab the Bears +2.5 in a matchup that could determine the 2025 NFC North winner.

Leg 2: Carolina Panthers +2.5 (-105)

The Panthers’ inability to beat the New Orleans Saints on the road sets up another divisional title game in Week 16. Carolina will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with both teams sitting with seven wins.

Panthers’ former No. 1 overall pick, QB Bryce Young, has continued to showcase his development under head coach Dave Canales. His inconsistency is frustrating, although Carolina has a prime matchup against a Tampa Bay defense allowing over 350 total yards of offense to the Cardinals and short-handed Falcons in two of its last three games played.

Carolina won’t shy away from an opponent. They’ve beaten the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Rams at home, leaning on a heavy dose of runs between Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard. Rookie wideout and top-ten draft pick, Tetairoa McMillan, is a game-breaker who is set to record some explosive plays against a weak Buccaneers secondary.

The Panthers are 8-6 ATS in 2025. The Buccaneers are 5-9 ATS, cooling off after a hot start, with QB Baker Mayfield’s play regressing. When Tampa Bay is a favorite, it tends to pay backing the opponent.

Let’s grab Carolina as another home underdog at +2.5 and boost our first NFL early week parlay to +265 odds.

Parlay 2 (+355)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have steadily erased any doubts about their legitimacy. First-year head coach Liam Coen has helped transform the Jaguars’ offense into a top-ten scoring unit, while the defense has held four of its last five opponents under 300 total yards of offense.

Trevor Lawrence is playing with more confidence and benefitting from the Jaguars’ effective rushing attack. A road trip to Denver to face a red-hot Broncos team has created value for Jacksonville as a +132 moneyline underdog.

Denver has won 10 consecutive games. The Broncos just logged an eight-point win at home against Green Bay. The Jaguars have only lost once since a Week 8 bye, blowing a massive 29-10 lead in the fourth quarter to Houston in Week 10.

The Broncos have had a lot of luck on their side, along with a top-five scoring defense and a dynamic offense led by QB Bo Nix. Head coach Sean Payton will encounter a tough matchup against Jacksonville’s run defense, which will allow the Jaguars to create turnovers and upset Denver on the road, just like they did earlier this season against San Francisco.

Let’s saddle up and bet on the Jaguars’ moneyline at plus odds against the Denver Broncos on the road in Week 16.

Leg 2: Detroit Lions -7.0 (-104)

The Lions are typically a covering machine after coming off a loss under head coach Dan Campbell. Detroit blew a seven-point lead at halftime to the Los Angeles Rams on the road in Week 15, so expect both offense and defense to turn up their play back home against a leaky Pittsburgh defense.

The Steelers have been unable to stop the run lately. Now, star edge rusher T.J. Watt is injured with a collapsed lung. Pittsburgh won’t have much of a chance to contain Lions RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs, while Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are a tough wide receiver tandem to contain, especially off play-action.

Pittsburgh is 6-7 ATS, and Detroit is 7-7 ATS. This makes neither side profitable, but the Lions did handle Dallas 44-30 at home in Week 14. Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense is run-centric under OC Arthur Smith, but they won’t be able to stick to their preferred scheme playing keep-up against the high-octane Lions offense.

Let’s lay -7.0 with Detroit as a touchdown favorite back home at Ford Field against Pittsburgh in a must-win game to keep the Lions in the NFC playoff picture.