NFL Parlays & Picks: Best Bets for Week 17 (2025)

The 2025 NFL playoff picture is taking shape rapidly with only two weeks remaining in the regular season. NFL Week 17 features some big games, while three matchups will be played in a triple-header on Thursday on Christmas Day.

Houston vs. Los Angeles Chargers carries big AFC playoff implications as the standalone game on Saturday. Then, on Sunday, Seattle travels to Carolina.

The Jacksonville Jaguars face the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC South divisional tilt, and the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. On Sunday Night Football, a huge NFC tilt between the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers profiles as a highly entertaining contest.

My NFL Parlays & Picks: Best Bets for Week 16 (2025) settled 1-1. Overall, my picks went 3-1 SU, with the only loss being Detroit -7.0 during a last-second defeat at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. We cashed a +265 underdog parlay of Bears +2.5/Panthers +2.5, while the Jaguars’ dominant 34-20 road win over Denver cashed Jacksonville’s +132 moneyline odds.

I’m back with a pair of early NFL Week 17 parlays to tail. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL betting analysis and free picks.

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NFL Early Week Parlays: Week 17

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Parlay 1 (+259)

Leg 1: Houston Texans Moneyline (-104)

The Chargers and Texans will face-off at SoFi Stadium on Saturday. Both teams are 5-7 in the AFC playoff seeding, putting them into Wild Card contention. Still, with two weeks left in the regular season and each division race tightening, a win would go a long way in this matchup.

The Texans’ No. 1 ranked scoring defense has helped spur them on a seven-game winning streak. QB C.J. Stroud is playing with confidence as well, which will test the Chargers’ defensive prowess.

Los Angeles has quietly rattled off a four-game win streak since its Week 12 bye. The Chargers’ defense has not allowed more than 19 points during this stretch, while hanging 31 or more points on the Raiders and Cowboys.

Houston’s defense is the best unit on the field in this game. The Texans are 8-7 ATS, while 9-5-1 toward the point total under, which is why the total is set to a low 39.5 in this AFC tilt.

Ultimately, we’ve seen Houston win a myriad of ways. Los Angeles has big wins over the Eagles and Chiefs, although both teams had endured their fair share of struggles down the stretch in 2025. Let’s bet on the Texans as a marginal road underdog at -104 moneyline odds.

Leg 2: Carolina Panthers +7.5 (-120)

The Carolina Panthers have climbed atop the NFC South following a comeback win over Tampa Bay in Week 16. Bryce Young and the Panthers’ offense have begun to find their identity, with rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan giving a big boost to the offense, in addition to the return of WR Jalen Coker.

Carolina’s pass defense is the unsung hero of their upward trajectory. Opponents have a tough time moving the football through the air against Carolina, which is why we’re going to take +7.5 against the visiting Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks rallied to beat the Rams for a huge divisional win that will likely lead to them clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC. QB Sam Darnold has been inconsistent and turnover-prone lately, while Seattle’s run game has been largely ineffective.

Carolina’s weakness is its run defense. While Seattle’s defense is a top-tier unit, Panthers RB Rico Dowdle will be effective enough to set up Young in play-action with his wideouts, leading to a few explosive plays to yield points for Carolina.

The Panthers already beat the Rams in Charlotte a few weeks ago. After an emotional win over Los Angeles in Week 16, let’s bet on Carolina to keep this game within a touchdown, especially as they try to close out the season by winning the NFC South division over Tampa Bay.

Parlay 2 (+242)

Leg 1: Buffalo Bills Moneyline (-134)

Buffalo squeaked out a nail-biter on the road against Cleveland in Week 16. The Bills didn’t cover, but their win put them at 11-4, one win behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East division race.

Star quarterback Josh Allen returns home to Highmark Stadium for a big matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles just clinched the NFC East division in Week 16, so they don’t have the same motivation to win compared to the Bills, who are currently sixth in the AFC playoff seeding.

Buffalo’s pass defense is going to force Jalen Hurts to be more of a game manager. Yes, the Bills’ run defense has struggled mightily in spots, but their own offense, led by RB James Cook, is a great antidote to a porous run defense.

The Bills can control time of possession and lean on Allen’s big arm to make plays downfield. Their ability to move the football won’t be challenged against an Eagles defense that has allowed three of its previous five opponents to log between 125 and 281 rushing yards.

Let’s bet on Buffalo as a small home favorite in a game that means much more to the Bills in comparison to the Eagles.

Leg 2: Chicago Bears +2.5 (-104)

The Chicago Bears’ Cinderella run culminated in an improbable comeback win at home against Green Bay in Week 16.

The Bears’ onside recovery led to QB Caleb Williams throwing a game-tying touchdown in the final seconds. Then, the former No. 1. overall pick delivered a deep walk-off touchdown pass to D.J. Moore to take down their rivals, clinching a playoff seed in the process.

Momentum is fully with the Bears in this Week 17 spot against the 49ers. San Francisco is still playing for a playoff berth, despite having a double-digit win total.

Their defense is the biggest liability, allowing the Browns and Titans to each log over 135 rushing yards in back-to-back games. While we don’t know the outcome of their Monday Night Football game against the Colts at the time of this writing, San Francisco’s offense may be challenged against a Bears defense that is one of the best in the league at forcing turnovers.

The ground game for Chicago allows its offense to thrive. Williams is a fantastic passer, especially on play-action within head coach Ben Johnson’s scheme, with other skilled players stepping up to overcome multiple injuries to the Bears’ wide receiving corps.

A prime-time road game against the 49ers isn’t a cakewalk. Yet, how can we bet against the Bears, who are 10-5 ATS? Momentum is fully on Chicago’s side, so in a matchup against a sub-par run defense, let’s grab the Bears +2.5 to boost this second parlay to +242 odds.

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.