After upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia during Wild Card Weekend, the 49ers will visit the Seahawks in Seattle on Saturday night.
I'll give you my favorite NFL Divisional Round player props for this game between NFC West rivals in just a moment. But before we get started, a quick recap of my picks from Wild Card Weekend:
Wins: Caleb Williams over 202.5 passing yards, Jordan Love over 221.5 passing yards, Luther Burden over 38.5 receiving yards, Parker Washington over 51.5 receiving yards, Jalen Hurts under 32.5 rushing yards, George Kittle under 59.5 receiving yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 34.5 rushing yards, Pat Freiermuth under 30.5 receiving yards
Losses: Bryce Young under 194.5 passing yards, Davante Adams under 53.5 receiving yards, James Cook over 80.5 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey over 57.5 rushing yards, Quentin Johnston over 36.5 receiving yards, Woody Marks under 56.5 rushing yards
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After upsetting the Eagles in Philadelphia during Wild Card Weekend, the 49ers will visit the Seahawks in Seattle on Saturday night.
I'll give you my favorite NFL Divisional Round player props for this game between NFC West rivals in just a moment. But before we get started, a quick recap of my picks from Wild Card Weekend:
Wins: Caleb Williams over 202.5 passing yards, Jordan Love over 221.5 passing yards, Luther Burden over 38.5 receiving yards, Parker Washington over 51.5 receiving yards, Jalen Hurts under 32.5 rushing yards, George Kittle under 59.5 receiving yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 34.5 rushing yards, Pat Freiermuth under 30.5 receiving yards
Losses: Bryce Young under 194.5 passing yards, Davante Adams under 53.5 receiving yards, James Cook over 80.5 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey over 57.5 rushing yards, Quentin Johnston over 36.5 receiving yards, Woody Marks under 56.5 rushing yards
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49ers vs. Seahawks Divisional Round Props
Last week: 8-6 | Season record: 81-56 | All odds are from Hard Rock Bet
The Seahawks have ratcheted up Zach Charbonnet's workload down the stretch. From Week 9 to Week 14, Charbonnet played no more than 42.9% of Seattle's offensive snaps in any game. Since Week 15, Charbonnet has played at least 53% of the offensive snaps in every game.
Charbonnet has had his two highest carry totals of the season in his last two games - 18 carries for 110 yards and two touchdowns against the Panthers in Week 17 and 17 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown versus these 49ers in Week 18. (In an earlier Week 1 matchup against the 49ers, Charbonnet had 12 carries for 47 yards and a touchdown.)
Charbonnet has also ramped up his efficiency over the latter part of the season. In his first seven games, he averaged 2.9 yards per carry. Over his last nine games, he's averaged 4.8 yards per carry.
San Francisco's mediocre run defense ranks 25th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). The 49ers allowed the 13th-most rushing yards to running backs during the regular season and allowed 4.5 yards per carry to running backs.
With the Seahawks favored by 7.5 points in this game, Charbonnet should have a run-friendly game script.
I love the over on his rushing yardage prop.
With George Kittle out for the rest of the playoffs with a torn Achilles, Jake Tonges could be an important cog in the 49ers' passing game the rest of the way.
When Kittle sustained a hamstring injury in the regular season and missed the next five games, Tonges averaged 6.2 targets, 4.4 catches and 41.8 receiving yards. Tonges topped 40 receiving yards in three of those five contests.
After Kittle left Week 1’s contest against the Seahawks in the second quarter, Tonges had three catches for 15 yards and a touchdown.
In addition to being without Kittle, the 49ers could also be missing wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, who missed last week's game with a knee injury. Pearsall has been practicing on a limited basis this week, but even if he plays, he's unlikely to be at 100%.
Seattle has struggled against tight ends this season. While the Seahawks allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers during the regular season, they allowed the sixth-most receiving yards and fifth-most receptions to tight ends. The Seahawks yielded 63.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends.
The over on Tonges' receiving yardage looks like a solid percentage play.
