The NFL Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday afternoon with an intriguing matchup between the Bills, who have made the Divisional Round in each of the last six seasons, and the Broncos, the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
I'll give you my favorite NFL Divisional Round player props for this game in just a moment. But before we get started, a quick recap of my picks from Wild Card Weekend:
Wins: Caleb Williams over 202.5 passing yards, Jordan Love over 221.5 passing yards, Luther Burden over 38.5 receiving yards, Parker Washington over 51.5 receiving yards, Jalen Hurts under 32.5 rushing yards, George Kittle under 59.5 receiving yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 34.5 rushing yards, Pat Freiermuth under 30.5 receiving yards
Losses: Bryce Young under 194.5 passing yards, Davante Adams under 53.5 receiving yards, James Cook over 80.5 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey over 57.5 rushing yards, Quentin Johnston over 36.5 receiving yards, Woody Marks under 56.5 rushing yards
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
The NFL Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday afternoon with an intriguing matchup between the Bills, who have made the Divisional Round in each of the last six seasons, and the Broncos, the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
I'll give you my favorite NFL Divisional Round player props for this game in just a moment. But before we get started, a quick recap of my picks from Wild Card Weekend:
Wins: Caleb Williams over 202.5 passing yards, Jordan Love over 221.5 passing yards, Luther Burden over 38.5 receiving yards, Parker Washington over 51.5 receiving yards, Jalen Hurts under 32.5 rushing yards, George Kittle under 59.5 receiving yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 34.5 rushing yards, Pat Freiermuth under 30.5 receiving yards
Losses: Bryce Young under 194.5 passing yards, Davante Adams under 53.5 receiving yards, James Cook over 80.5 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey over 57.5 rushing yards, Quentin Johnston over 36.5 receiving yards, Woody Marks under 56.5 rushing yards
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Bills vs. Broncos Divisional Round Props
Last week: 8-6 | Season record: 81-56 | All odds are from Hard Rock Bet
After using RJ Harvey sparingly over the first two months of the regular season, the Broncos have turned their rookie running back loose down the stretch.
Harvey has played between 56% and 68% of the Broncos' offensive snaps in each of their last five games. He's averaging 14.4 carries and 52.2 rushing yards a game over that stretch. Harvey had at least 14 carries in all but one of those games.
Harvey hasn't been particularly efficient over his last five contests, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry over that span. But Harvey has a welcome-mat matchup this week against the Bills, whose run defense is among the worst in the league.
Buffalo ranked 31st in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) versus the run during the regular season, outranking only the Giants. The Bills gave up the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs, yielding five yards per carry to running backs. The Bills have a run-funnel defense, with opponents running against Buffalo on 47.1% of their offensive snaps - the fifth-highest rate in the league.
I expect Broncos head coach Sean Payton to try to strike a healthy offensive balance between run and pass in this game, rather than put the game in the hands of quarterback Bo Nix. Because if it comes down to a quarterback duel between Josh Allen and Bo Nix, the Broncos probably aren't winning this game.
Take the over on Harvey's rushing yardage.
If the Bills are going to knock off the top-seeded Broncos in Denver, it's going to take a herculean effort from All-World quarterback Josh Allen.
The Broncos have a smothering pass defense, and the Bills are weak at wide receiver. It's hard to see Allen lighting up the Denver defense for 300+ passing yards. It's also hard to envision Bills ball-carrier James Cook having a big game against a Broncos defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to running backs.
With those offensive headwinds blowing against the Bills, expect Allen to run aggressively.
Traditionally, Allen has been much more inclined to take off and run during the playoffs than he is during the regular season. Allen averaged 6.6 rushing attempts and 34.1 rushing yards a game during the regular season. Over his eight-year career, he's averaged 6.8 rushing attempts and 36.9 rushing yards per game. But in 14 career playoff games, Allen has averaged 8.8 rushing attempts and 50.1 rushing yards per game.
This is a high bar to clear, but I think Allen is going to run aggressively in Denver this Saturday and top this number.
