It's rare to have a road team favored against a No. 1 seed in the NFL playoffs, but the Patriots go into Denver as 4.5-point favorites against the Broncos. Obviously, the season-ending ankle injury that Broncos quarterback Bo Nix sustained late in last week's game against the Bills has a lot to do with Denver's underdog status.
I'll give you my favorite NFL Conference Championship player props for this game in just a moment. But first, a quick recap of the picks from the Divisional Round:
Wins: Josh Allen over 37.5 rushing yards, Jake Tonges over 36.5 receiving yards, Woody Marks under 55.5 rushing yards, Kyren Williams over 56.5 rushing yards
Losses: RJ Harvey over 57.5 rushing yards, Zach Charbonnet over 45.5 rushing yards, Kyle Williams over 4.5 receiving yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 19.5 receiving yards, Luther Burden over 37.5 receiving yards
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It's rare to have a road team favored against a No. 1 seed in the NFL playoffs, but the Patriots go into Denver as 4.5-point favorites against the Broncos. Obviously, the season-ending ankle injury that Broncos quarterback Bo Nix sustained late in last week's game against the Bills has a lot to do with Denver's underdog status.
I'll give you my favorite NFL Conference Championship player props for this game in just a moment. But first, a quick recap of the picks from the Divisional Round:
Wins: Josh Allen over 37.5 rushing yards, Jake Tonges over 36.5 receiving yards, Woody Marks under 55.5 rushing yards, Kyren Williams over 56.5 rushing yards
Losses: RJ Harvey over 57.5 rushing yards, Zach Charbonnet over 45.5 rushing yards, Kyle Williams over 4.5 receiving yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 19.5 receiving yards, Luther Burden over 37.5 receiving yards
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Patriots vs. Broncos Conference Championship Props
Last week: 4-5 | Season record: 85-61 | All odds are from Hard Rock Bet
I'm going to wait until Sunday to make this bet in hopes of getting it at a slightly lower number, but I'll be betting the over on Jarrett Stidham's passing yardage at any number below 200.
Stidham entered the league in 2019 but has made only four career starts. None in the playoffs. He hasn't thrown a pass since 2023.
And yet, the small sample size we have on Stidham is pretty encouraging. In his four starts, he averaged 270 passing yards per game and 7.9 yards per attempt. His lowest yardage total in those four starts was 219.
Stidham will be facing a pass-funnel Patriots defense. New England's opponents threw on 58.8% of their offensive snaps during the regular season - the 10th-highest rate in the league. The Patriots' pass defense ranks 25th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).
The Broncos had just 70 rushing yards against a bad Bills run defense last week and have averaged 98.6 rushing yards over their last 10 games. Denver won't be able to lean on its unreliable running game against a tough New England run defense; the Broncos will have to throw.
It's probably unrealistic to expect a rusty Stidham to light up the New England defense, but I do expect him to throw for more than 200 yards.
Rhamondre Stevenson has topped this number in three consecutive games and in five of his last six. He's averaged 67 rushing yards and 7.3 yards per carry over his last six games.
The Patriots' backfield is a two-man operation, with Stevenson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson both contributing. But New England has been leaning on the more experienced Stevenson in the postseason. Stevenson's snap shares in the Patriots' two playoff games: 62.5% and 61.5%. Stevenson had 16 carries against the Texans last week, his second-highest carry total of the season.
Denver's run defense is undeniably good. The Broncos rank third in DVOA versus the run and allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to running backs during the regular season. But Denver's run defense isn't impregnable. The Bills' James Cook had 117 rushing yards against the Broncos last week.
Stevenson has momentum as the Patriots get deep into the playoffs. I like his chances to beat this fairly low number even against a tough Denver defense.
Generally, I don't like making uncorrelated player prop bets. It seems incongruent to tout the over on Jarrett Stidham's passing yardage and the under on Courtland Sutton's receiving yardage.
But, well… I'm just not crazy about Sutton's matchup this week.
The Patriots allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers during the regular season. And Sutton is likely to run a lot of his routes against New England's best cornerback and one of the top cover men in the league in Christian Gonzalez.
For some inexplicable reason, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud threw into Gonzalez's coverage 16 times last week, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Stroud completed seven of those throws for 58 yards - an average of just 3.6 yards per target. In two playoff games, Gonzalez has allowed a 36.8% completion rate and 2.9 yards per target on throws into his coverage.
Plus, Sutton has been in a mini-slump. Over his last three games, he's averaged 32.7 receiving yards per game and 4.7 yards per target.
While I do think Stidham is a good bet to throw for 200+ yards, I suspect that Sutton will have a relatively quiet day.
