The NFL playoffs Divisional Round concludes with a Sunday-night matchup between the Rams, who have been at or near the top of NFL power rankings all season, and the Bears, who went from worst to first in the NFC North and are now just one win away from the NFC Conference Championship Game.
This could be a frigid affair, with wind-chill temperatures expected to drop below zero on Sunday night in Chicago.
I'll give you my favorite NFL Divisional Round player props for this game in just a moment. But before we get started, a quick recap of my picks from Wild Card Weekend:
Wins: Caleb Williams over 202.5 passing yards, Jordan Love over 221.5 passing yards, Luther Burden over 38.5 receiving yards, Parker Washington over 51.5 receiving yards, Jalen Hurts under 32.5 rushing yards, George Kittle under 59.5 receiving yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 34.5 rushing yards, Pat Freiermuth under 30.5 receiving yards
Losses: Bryce Young under 194.5 passing yards, Davante Adams under 53.5 receiving yards, James Cook over 80.5 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey over 57.5 rushing yards, Quentin Johnston over 36.5 receiving yards, Woody Marks under 56.5 rushing yards
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The NFL playoffs Divisional Round concludes with a Sunday-night matchup between the Rams, who have been at or near the top of NFL power rankings all season, and the Bears, who went from worst to first in the NFC North and are now just one win away from the NFC Conference Championship Game.
This could be a frigid affair, with wind-chill temperatures expected to drop below zero on Sunday night in Chicago.
I'll give you my favorite NFL Divisional Round player props for this game in just a moment. But before we get started, a quick recap of my picks from Wild Card Weekend:
Wins: Caleb Williams over 202.5 passing yards, Jordan Love over 221.5 passing yards, Luther Burden over 38.5 receiving yards, Parker Washington over 51.5 receiving yards, Jalen Hurts under 32.5 rushing yards, George Kittle under 59.5 receiving yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 34.5 rushing yards, Pat Freiermuth under 30.5 receiving yards
Losses: Bryce Young under 194.5 passing yards, Davante Adams under 53.5 receiving yards, James Cook over 80.5 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey over 57.5 rushing yards, Quentin Johnston over 36.5 receiving yards, Woody Marks under 56.5 rushing yards
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Rams vs. Bears Divisional Round Props
Last week: 8-6 | Season record: 81-56 | All odds are from Hard Rock Bet
With frosty temperatures expected in Chicago, both teams might lean on the running game more heavily than usual.
Kyren Williams has logged either 12 or 13 rushing attempts in each of his last three games, sharing work with impressive second-year backfield-mate Blake Corum. But the weather and the matchup could boost Williams' workload.
Chicago's run defense is a sieve. The Bears ranked 28th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) against the run and gave up the 10th-most rushing yards to running backs during the regular season. Chicago lost a key run defender during Wild Card Weekend when linebacker T.J. Edwards fractured his fibula.
Williams has beaten this number in seven straight games and in 15 out of 18 games this season. He averaged 15.2 carries and 73.6 rushing yards per game during the regular season.
In four career playoff games with the Rams, Williams has averaged 15.3 carries and 75 rushing yards. He's topped this number in all four playoff games.
There's an excellent chance that Williams blows past this number on Sunday night.
We bet the over on Luther Burden's receiving yardage last week, and after collecting our winnings on that wager, we're going right back to the well.
Burden's season has been a slow burn, but now the fire is lit. Burden's snap shares were below 30% in each of his first seven games, and he didn't play more than 51% of Chicago's offensive snaps in any game until Week 14. But Burden has played at least 58% of the offensive snaps in four of his last five games, and his snap shares have settled in at around 60% over the last three weeks.
Over his last five games, Burden has averaged 6.6 targets, 4.8 catches and 73.2 receiving yards. He's averaging 11.1 yards per target over that stretch.
Burden is a terrific young talent. He averaged 2.69 yards per route run during the regular season. Odell Beckham Jr. is the only rookie receiver to have averaged more yards per route run since the introduction of that statistic. And as I noted last week when touting the over on Burden's yardage prop, he ranked No. 1 among wide receivers in average yards of separation during the regular season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats (4.6 yards), and was third in yards after the catch per reception (7.4 yards).
Chicago's perimeter receivers aren't entirely healthy. DJ Moore has a knee injury, and Rome Odunze is dealing with a foot injury. Both were limited in practice this week.
Expect Burden to be involved against the Rams on Sunday night, and expect him to beat this number.
