Won't it be strange to watch a Texans playoff game that doesn't kick off on Saturday afternoon?
The Texans have traditionally been relegated to the Saturday-afternoon slot in the playoffs, but this time they'll face the Patriots on Sunday afternoon. Houston might have the best defense in the league, and it will be interesting to see if Drake Maye can conquer it to extend what has been a storybook season for the second-year quarterback.
I'll give you my favorite NFL Divisional Round player props for this game in just a moment. But before we get started, a quick recap of my picks from Wild Card Weekend:
Wins: Caleb Williams over 202.5 passing yards, Jordan Love over 221.5 passing yards, Luther Burden over 38.5 receiving yards, Parker Washington over 51.5 receiving yards, Jalen Hurts under 32.5 rushing yards, George Kittle under 59.5 receiving yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 34.5 rushing yards, Pat Freiermuth under 30.5 receiving yards
Losses: Bryce Young under 194.5 passing yards, Davante Adams under 53.5 receiving yards, James Cook over 80.5 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey over 57.5 rushing yards, Quentin Johnston over 36.5 receiving yards, Woody Marks under 56.5 rushing yards
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Won't it be strange to watch a Texans playoff game that doesn't kick off on Saturday afternoon?
The Texans have traditionally been relegated to the Saturday-afternoon slot in the playoffs, but this time they'll face the Patriots on Sunday afternoon. Houston might have the best defense in the league, and it will be interesting to see if Drake Maye can conquer it to extend what has been a storybook season for the second-year quarterback.
I'll give you my favorite NFL Divisional Round player props for this game in just a moment. But before we get started, a quick recap of my picks from Wild Card Weekend:
Wins: Caleb Williams over 202.5 passing yards, Jordan Love over 221.5 passing yards, Luther Burden over 38.5 receiving yards, Parker Washington over 51.5 receiving yards, Jalen Hurts under 32.5 rushing yards, George Kittle under 59.5 receiving yards, Rhamondre Stevenson over 34.5 rushing yards, Pat Freiermuth under 30.5 receiving yards
Losses: Bryce Young under 194.5 passing yards, Davante Adams under 53.5 receiving yards, James Cook over 80.5 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey over 57.5 rushing yards, Quentin Johnston over 36.5 receiving yards, Woody Marks under 56.5 rushing yards
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Texans vs. Patriots Divisional Round Props
Last week: 8-6 | Season record: 81-56 | All odds are from Hard Rock Bet
Woody Marks had his best performance of the season last week against the Steelers, carrying the ball 19 times for 112 yards and a touchdown. That fine showing has created a bubble with the second-year running back's rushing prop for Sunday's game, and I suspect that bubble will burst against one of the league's best run defenses.
Marks averaged 3.6 yards per carry during the regular season. He ranked 34th among qualifying running backs in rushing yards per carry over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. This is an inefficient runner going against a lights-out run defense.
Through the first 10 games of the season, the Patriots were giving up only 79.2 rushing yards per game and had held seven of their 10 opponents to fewer than 74 rushing yards. Run-stuffing defensive tackle Milton Williams sustained a high-ankle sprain early in New England's Week 11 game, and the Patriots lost another excellent run defender in linebacker Robert Spillane to an ankle injury in Week 13.
But Williams and Spillane are back. They were on the field together for the first time since mid-November last week against the Chargers, and they helped hold Chargers running backs Kimani Vidal and Omarion Hampton to 12 carries for 30 yards.
This wager feels like it's going against the grain, but I think the under on Marks' rushing yardage is the right play. (Marks' rushing yardage prop could inch up a yard or two over the weekend, so you might want to wait until Sunday morning to place this bet.)
Rhamondre Stevenson has become increasingly involved as a pass-catcher during the Patriots' stretch run.
After averaging 19.3 receiving yards over his first nine games of the season, he's averaged 41 receiving yards over his last six contests. He's averaging 13.7 yards per catch and 12.3 yards per target over that stretch - wildly impressive numbers for a running back.
The Houston defense is terrific, but it isn't especially good at stopping running backs in the passing game, allowing the 14th-most receiving yards to backs during the regular season.
Stevenson has beaten this number in six straight games. I think he'll beat it again on Sunday.
The BettingPros Player Prop Cheat Sheet really likes this play, giving it a four-star rating and a 62% cover probability.
The Patriots rotate their wide receivers. After playing sparingly for most of his rookie season, Kyle Williams has seen a snap increase in recent weeks. He played fewer than 30% of New England's offensive snaps in 11 of his first 14 games. But since Week 16, Williams has had snap shares of 38%, 85%, 46% and 33%.
Williams has played at least 21 offensive snaps in each of his last four contests, and he's had at least one reception and seven receiving yards in three of them.
It's probably only going to take one reception for Williams to beat this number, and I'm betting that he gets it.
