The Buffalo Bills are favored by more than a touchdown in Sunday's AFC Wild Card game against the Denver Broncos. The Bills went undefeated at home this season. They'll take on a team that lost two of its last three games, with the only win during that span coming against backups. What should we expect from these two teams on Sunday?
Here is the best Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills same-game parlay (SGP) for Wild Card Weekend.
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Broncos vs. Bills Best Same Game Parlay
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Leg 1: Over 46.5 Points (-115)
The Bills finished the regular season with the second-highest-scoring offense in football, averaging 30.9 points per game, despite benching most of their key starters in Week 18. Meanwhile, the Broncos finished the year with the 10th-highest-scoring offense, averaging 25 points per game.
While both of these defenses have had their moments this season, I still see this being a high-scoring game. The Broncos have the third-ranked scoring defense in football, allowing just 18.3 points per game. And while they shut out the Kansas City Chiefs' backups in Week 18, they allowed at least 30 points in the two weeks before that game against playoff-caliber teams.
Meanwhile, the Bills' defense has struggled down the stretch. They gave up more than 40 points in back-to-back weeks in December, and they allowed the New England Patriots and their 30th-ranked offense to score 21 on them three weeks ago. Both of these teams have decent defenses from a statistical standpoint, but the offenses will shine on Sunday.
Leg 2: Courtland Sutton Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155)
Courtland Sutton ended the year with eight touchdown receptions, after catching one in each of his last two games to end the season. Five of his touchdowns were caught in the last six games of the year, so he enters the postseason on fire.
Though he's playing a playoff defense this week, he should still find success through the air. The Bills allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game this season, but more importantly, they gave up 1.6 touchdown passes per contest, which was tied for eighth-most in the league.
With the Bills likely to be leading most of this game, look for Bo Nix to target Sutton often. And since the Bills' pass defense is their weakness, I'll take Sutton to find the end zone at least once, as he's done in most of his games over the last few weeks.
Leg 3: James Cook Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
For the final leg of the parlay, I'm taking James Cook to do something he hasn't done in two weeks: Catch a pass. Cook ended the season with 32 catches for 258 yards, but he wasn't even targeted in either of the Bills' final two games of the year. That said, this matchup presents opportunities for Cook through the air, as the Broncos have one of the best rush defenses in football.
The Broncos gave up just 96.4 rushing yards per game during the regular season. That ranked third in the league. These numbers weren't inflated because they were beating teams - the Broncos' run defense was really that good. They ended the year as one of two teams to allow fewer than 4.0 yards per carry.
But while Cook is likely to struggle on the ground, he is still one of the most important members of this offense. I expect the Bills to try to get him involved in any way they can. While he hasn't caught any passes over the last two weeks, he did have at least 26 yards in his two games before his current streak, and he's gone for more than 11 yards in nine games this season.
Parlay Odds: +550
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.