Week 12 of the NFL season is upon us, and the action gets started on Thursday night with an AFC North showdown between the Steelers (8-2) and the Browns (2-8). I'm heading the PrizePicks route to get some skin in the game, and I've narrowed in on three player props that I like. This trio provides a 4.25x multiplier if we nail all three picks.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, OH.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Week 12 of the NFL season is upon us, and the action gets started on Thursday night with an AFC North showdown between the Steelers (8-2) and the Browns (2-8). I'm heading the PrizePicks route to get some skin in the game, and I've narrowed in on three player props that I like. This trio provides a 4.25x multiplier if we nail all three picks.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, OH.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Best NFL PrizePicks Player Predictions
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The Steelers offense has been firing on all cylinders since Russell Wilson took the reins four weeks ago. Wilson's mid-to-deep passing threat has forced defenses to keep defensive players back, which has in turn opened up the rushing attack. Najee Harris has been the biggest benefactor of the quarterbacking change, as he's accumulated 332 rushing yards (83.0 RY/G) through the last four contests. He's cleared this threshold of 68.5 yards in two of those four games, and I'm going to take him to do so again.
Cleveland's rushing defense has been horrible this year. This group is typically regarded as a top-tier unit, but it simply hasn't translated to the statsheet this season. The Browns are 27th in yards allowed per rushing attempt (4.8) and 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (131.7). The Steelers run the ball on 52.45% of their plays (2nd), and I expect another healthy dose of Harris on Thursday night.
Speaking of quarterback changes, Jameis Winston has helped kick this Cleveland offense into gear since taking over three games ago. He's thrown the ball 133 times over the last three games (44.3 PA/G), eclipsing this number of 34.5 pass attempts in each of the three contests (46, 46, 41).
I understand why this number is low, being that it's a divisional game against a stout pass rush. However, Pittsburgh's Alex Highsmith, the defensive end opposite of T.J. Watt, is out with an ankle injury. With Highsmith not coming off the edge, it may allow for the Browns to throw the ball more in this matchup. Not to mention, I don't think anyone wants to willingly run right into the teeth of this fourth-ranked Pittsburgh rushing defense (90.8 RYA/G). At the end of the day, Jamies is a gunslinger, and with the Browns likely to find themselves behind in this game, I expect him to be dropping back 35+ times.
Pittsburgh's defense really is a bend-don't-break type of unit. They're the eighth-best defense in terms of yards allowed (3,052) while ranking second in points allowed (162). In terms of red zone defense, the Steelers are once again the eighth-best team in the league, keeping their opposition out of the end zone on 51.7% of their red zone trips. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 23rd in red zone offense (52.9%), while also ranking dead last in third-down conversion rate (28.2%).
I preface with all of this information because I ultimately believe that Dustin Hopkins is going to get a few field goal opportunities this game. The kicker has been serviceable this year, going 10-for-12 (83.3%) from 20-49 yards. Hopkins has played the Steelers five times in his career, and he's cleared this total at a 100% rate (7, 6, 11, 11, 10).
