NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Primer (Patriots vs.Ravens)

Sunday Night Football brings one of the most fascinating games of the week. A heavyweight matchup, playoff implications everywhere, and a massive spotlight on two teams coming off very different emotional results.

This is a classic SNF spot where public perception doesn't always align with reality - and where props often present the cleanest edge. Primetime games tend to slow down, tighten up, and funnel usage toward the same players we've been targeting all season.

MY Patriots versus Ryan Wormeli’s Ravens. May the best team win!

Sunday Night Football NFL Betting Primer

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens - Sunday Night Football

Erickson's Pick: Patriots +3 (Game Total Over 48.5)

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

The Patriots have been the first to 20 points in each of their last 11 games.
The Patriots have won each of their last six road games (Covered four straight as road underdogs).
The Patriots have covered the spread in six of their last seven road games.
The Pats are also 2-0 ATS after a loss this season.
Nine of the Patriots' last 10 December games have gone OVER the total points line.
The Pats are 3-2 SU as underdogs this season (0-2 as home underdogs).
The Ravens have lost the first half in five of their last six games.
In each of the Ravens' last five games as home favorites, their opponents have scored first.
Baltimore is 14-17 ATS as home favorites and 11-8-1 ATS as home favorites in their last 20 (8-7-1 ATS as home favorites since 2024). Only once have they failed to cover a spread of fewer than 6.0 points.
Baltimore is 15-9-1 toward the over as a home favorite since 2023.
The road team has covered the spread in each of the Ravens’ last four games.
Five of the last six games between the Patriots and Ravens have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

I'm taking New England with the +3 and sprinkling some units on the moneyline. The Patriots didn't just win 10 straight by accident - they're a young team learning how to win with a lead, and getting punched in the mouth by Buffalo is a good lesson before the playoffs. Now they immediately get Baltimore, and there's no time to mope. So far this season, Mike Vrabel's squad has responded well after losses.

The Ravens defense is beatable, and I expect the Patriots offense (with Drake Maye) to come out aggressive. I also like the Over here because New England's red zone defense has been a real issue - teams that get inside the 20 are scoring touchdowns at an extremely high rate.

Per Next Gen Stats: The Patriots have the worst red zone defense in the NFL in 2025, allowing a touchdown on 75.0 percent of their opponents’ red zone drives.

The Patriots’ 19.7 points per game allowed are the fewest by any team to allow a touchdown on at least 70.0 percent of opponent red zone drives in a season since 2000.

The Patriots’ defense has allowed a 50.5% success rate inside the red zone this season, the 2nd-highest in the NFL. Opposing passers have averaged 8.4 air yards per attempt inside the red zone against New England, the most in the league, while completing 63.8% of their throws, the 7th-highest rate.

Not to mention, both defenses are dealing with injuries to key pieces.

No Pats LB Robert Spillane this week, and DT Christian Barmore is questionable with a knee injury.

That and the addition of another week without DT Milton Williams....well, it's not surprising to see how much the Pats' run defense has fallen off.

After not allowing a 50+ yard running back for the first nine weeks, they’ve allowed a 50+ yard rusher in every game since.

The Ravens were dominant on the ground last week, with Derrick Henry hitting 100 yards from 11 carries (9.1 YPC), and Keaton Mitchell’s eight carries notched 66 yards (8.2 YPC).

The King has 94-plus rushing yards in back-to-back games (no TDs). Before that, he had three straight top-10 finishes in fantasy with TDs to boot.

Ravens stud safety, Kyle Hamilton, was a late addition to the injury report on Friday.

Mark Andrews played just 41% of the snaps in Week 15 - lower than both Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar. Even so, the Ravens TE caught two passes for 18 yards on three targets.

Likely was such a disappointment given how involved he has been in the last two games leading up to the Bengals' matchup (especially in the red zone area). He still has nine catches to Andrews' seven in the last three games. Likely has been a top 12 fantasy TE in two of the last three weeks, despite two TDs that didn't convert. Baltimore has been trying to get him the rock in the red zone.

The Ravens only attempted 12 passes versus the Bengals, so the passing volume was nonexistent in a game where they only ran 40 offensive plays. The Patriots are terrible in the red zone, so I think we could see these Ravens TEs bounce back (31st in passing TD allowed and 32nd in red-zone TD rate).

Baltimore's offensive woes can be tied directly to its 31^st-ranked red-zone offense. New England’s defense is the perfect RZ cure.

We should see Lamar Jackson throw for multiple touchdowns in this game. He went over 1.5 passing TDs last week for the first time since Week 9 (on just 12 pass attempts).

Per Next Gen Stats, Lamar Jackson has faced man coverage on 36.7% of his dropbacks this season, the highest rate of his career and the highest in the NFL.

Against man coverage, he has averaged 7.5 yards per attempt (8th-most) with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. Versus zone, Jackson has averaged 8.4 yards per attempt (6th-most) with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. He has scrambled on just 12.9% of dropbacks against man coverage, compared to a 20.1% scramble rate versus zone. The Patriots’ defense has allowed 19 touchdown passes to opposing passers when playing man coverage this season, the 2nd-most in the league.

Likely has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Ravens’ last five December home games.

Drake Maye has recorded 222+ passing yards in each of the Patriots’ last seven road games. Also had 240-plus passing yards in six of his last seven games.

If you want to use some teaser lines, move the Pats to +7.5 and take the total over 43.5 (-110 odds).

Props: