This week’s Sunday Night Football matchup is between a pair of NFC playoff hopefuls, with the 49ers hosting the Falcons. Both teams have do-it-all stud running backs, and they comprise all four legs of our parlay.
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NFL Same Game Parlay for Sunday Night Football: Falcons vs. 49ers
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers
- Leg 1: Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-175)
- Leg 2: Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-160)
- Leg 3: Christian McCaffrey Over 111.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
- Leg 4: Bijan Robinson Over 121.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)
Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson are nightmares for defenses. They can run through defenses. However, McCaffrey and Robinson can also torch them in the passing game. Thus, they’ve both piled up yardage this year. They’re also a threat to reach paydirt on the ground or through the air. Let’s look at each running back individually.
McCaffrey has 780 scrimmage yards (130 per game) and four touchdowns this season. McCaffrey has cleared 111.5 scrimmage yards in four out of six contests, narrowly falling short of that mark in Week 2 and Week 6, with 107 and 111 total yards, respectively. He’s also scored a touchdown in four out of six games, including three straight entering Sunday night.
McCaffrey’s all-around ability makes him game-script proof. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, McCaffrey has a team-high 22% target share, 0.26 targets per route run, 37 targets, 31 receptions, 279 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns, both on end-zone targets, in Mac Jones’ four starts this season.
McCaffrey has averaged 124.25 scrimmage yards per game, with a median of 125 in Jones’ four starts. He’s also scored a touchdown in three of those four starts. The 49ers should feel compelled to lean on McCaffrey against the blitz-heavy Falcons tonight.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Falcons have an NFL-high 39.9% blitz rate this season. Meanwhile, among 32 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks blitzed this season, Jones is only the 24th-ranked passer at Pro Football Focus (PFF). One way to slow Atlanta’s blitz or punish them for blitzing is to utilize McCaffrey in the passing game on screens and blitz-beating quick hitters.
If the favored 49ers lead, McCaffrey can find success on the ground. In Atlanta’s last three games, they’ve yielded 130.3 rushing yards per game at 5.14 yards per carry. Thus, FantasyPros projects McCaffrey for 71.4 rushing yards, 0.5 rushing touchdowns, 46.6 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving touchdowns.
Robinson is having an even more impressive season than McCaffrey. He’s piled up an NFL-high 822 scrimmage yards (164.4 per game) this season, despite the Falcons having a bye in Week 5. He’s amassed 124, 168, 111, 181 and 238 scrimmage yards in five games, good for a median of 168. Robinson has also scored a touchdown in three out of five games, including his previous two contests.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, San Francisco has allowed just the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game (25.7) to running backs this season. Yet, bettors should probably recalibrate expectations for the 49ers holding running backs in check in the passing game since Fred Warner suffered a season-ending ankle injury last week.
Warner’s absence could also impact their ability to stop running backs on the ground, too. Robinson is a challenging assignment in San Francisco’s first complete game of adjusting to Warner’s season-ending injury, and the Falcons would be wise to test them. Both stud running backs should put on a back-and-forth show, piling up scrimmage yardage and reaching the end zone.
Parlay Odds: +450
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.