Sunday Night Football doesn’t quite have the feel schedule makers likely expected when scheduling the Baltimore Ravens at the Atlanta Falcons with Lamar Jackson ruled out. Jackson’s absence is a crucial factor for the first leg of the following three-leg NFL Sunday Night Football same-game parlay (SGP).
Atlanta’s two stars make up the other two legs of the three-leg SGP and will almost certainly play a big role in the outcome if the 3.5-point-favored Falcons handle their business. Furthermore, all three legs can get home if the underdog Ravens spring the small upset.
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NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Ravens vs. Falcons
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
- Leg 1: Derrick Henry 20+ Rush Attempts (-106)
- Leg 2: Bijan Robinson 70+ Rushing Yards (-269)
- Leg 3: Drake London 7+ Receptions (+121)
The Ravens have leaned on the running game this season. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Baltimore ranks 22nd in pass rate over expected (-1.3% PROE). Declan Doyle understands he has a stud workhorse, and Derrick Henry has averaged 22.3 rush attempts per game, with at least 20 attempts in three games.
Without Jackson, Doyle will likely need to lean on King Henry even more. While Doyle wasn’t the team’s offensive coordinator before 2026, Henry averaged 18.5 attempts per game in 36 contests with Jackson and 24 per game in four outings without him. He reached at least 20 carries in three of those four contests.
A positive game script would help Henry’s cause, but as long as the Ravens keep it close, as the spread suggests they will, he should have at least 20 carries. Henry is projected for 20.1 carries on Sunday Night Football, according to FantasyPros’ consensus projections.
As good as Henry is, he’s not even the best running back in this contest. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, among 46 running backs with at least 25 carries this season, Bijan Robinson is fourth in rush attempts per game (21.3), second in rushing yards per game (123.5), third in yards per carry (5.81), 11th in explosive run rate (14.1%), tied for second in success rate (60%), fifth in stuff rate (34.1%) and second in rush yards over expectation (135.9).
Robinson’s alt line of 70+ rushing yards is justifiably chalky. Still, he’s hit that mark in all four games this season. Conversely, the Ravens have allowed Jonathan Taylor (98 rushing yards) and Javonte Williams (99 rushing yards) to reach the 70-yard rushing threshold this season. FantasyPros’ consensus projections have Robinson pegged for 93.0 rushing yards, comfortably over 70.
Drake London has smashed since Michael Penix Jr. returned for the Falcons. In two games with Penix starting this year, London has ripped off the following numbers:
- 91.3% route participation rate
- 35.6% target share
- 0.38 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 42.1% first-read rate
- 55.2% air yard share
- 7.0 receptions per game
- 145.0 receiving yards per game
London’s dominance with Penix isn’t limited to two games this year, either.
In 14 games London has played that Penix has started, he’s had a 32.8% target share, 0.35 TPRR, a 40.5% first-read share, 10.4 targets per game, 6.9 receptions per game and 103.7 receiving yards per game.
London hauled in at least seven receptions in six of those games. The big-bodied No. 1 wideout should be busy against the Ravens, and Baltimore’s coverage tendencies could be a plus for him. The Ravens have a 79.9% zone coverage rate (74.6% league average) and a 66.2% two-high coverage rate (50.8% league average) this season.
Since last season, London has 0.32 TPRR and 3.46 YPRR on 321 routes against zone and 0.29 TPRR and 2.43 YPRR on 194 routes against two-high coverage.
Finally, the Ravens have allowed the third-most receptions per game to wideouts (14.8). Chris Olave (eight receptions), CeeDee Lamb (seven receptions), George Pickens (seven receptions) and Carnell Tate (nine receptions) all had at least seven receptions against Baltimore this season.
Parlay Odds: +550
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.