I couldn’t have gotten off to a better start with this year’s Sunday Night Football same game parlay (SGP) article than hitting a six-leg SGP with +1300 odds. I’ll attempt to stay hot with the following Sunday Night Football SGP for the Vikings versus the Falcons, a battle of second-year signal-callers.
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NFL Same Game Parlay for Sunday Night Football: Vikings vs. Falcons
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
- Leg 1: Michael Penix Jr. 210+ Passing Yards (-190)
- Leg 2: Michael Penix Jr. Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Leg 3: Bijan Robinson 25+ Receiving Yards (-136)
- Leg 4: Drake London 70+ Receiving Yards (-137)
- Leg 5: Justin Jefferson 50+ Receiving Yards (-339)
Brian Flores calls an aggressive defense, but it’s also a pass-funnel defense. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Minnesota’s defense is tied for the fifth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (59%) faced since Week 1 in 2024. Conversely, the Falcons have had a 56% situation-neutral pass rate in Michael Penix’s four career starts.
Penix has averaged 258.8 passing yards per game, with a median of 260.5 in his starts. He passed for only 202 yards on 27 passes in his first career start, a blowout 34-7 victory against the Giants in Week 16 of the 2024 season. In three subsequent starts (all one-score losses), Penix has passed for 223, 312 and 298, putting him over 209.5 passing yards in three of his four career starts.
The lefty signal-caller had career-highs for rush attempts (six) and rushing yards (21) in Week 1. Penix isn’t a bad athlete, despite his lack of rushing production. Caleb Williams gashed the Vikings for 58 yards on the ground last week. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, all of Williams’ rush attempts and yards were on scrambles. The Falcons are unlikely to draw up designed runs for Penix. Still, a pass-happy game plan would open the door for Penix to scramble for more than 7.5 rushing yards. FantasyPros projects Penix to have 224.6 passing yards and 11.3 rushing yards against the Vikings.
Bijan Robinson was a monster through the air last week. He had seven targets, six receptions and 100 receiving yards against the Buccaneers. Robinson has averaged 29.1 receiving yards per game in 35 career contests.
Robinson’s matchup is adequate through the air. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, players lined up in the backfield had a 14.4% target share against the Vikings last season and a 21.2% target share in Week 1 this season. Chicago’s running backs had six targets, four receptions and 23 receiving yards against the Vikings in Week 1, and Robinson is a better receiving weapon than Chicago’s running backs.
Drake London doesn’t have an injury designation this week. Darnell Mooney will also make his season debut. Still, Mooney didn’t prevent Penix from peppering London with targets in the lefty’s starts.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among players who ran at least 50 routes from Week 16 through Week 18 last year, London was first in air yards (503), fourth in air yards share (50.6%), first in targets (39), third in target share (39.0%), second in targets per route run (0.41), tied for fourth in receptions (22) and first in receiving yards per game (117.3). Mooney played in two of those contests. Atlanta’s No. 1 wide receiver had an uninspiring 55 receiving yards in Week 1. Nonetheless, London had 102 air yards, a 37.1% air yards share, 15 targets, a 35.7% target share and 0.42 targets per route run. According to Pro Football Reference, the Vikings allowed the second-most receiving yards per game (183.2) to wideouts last year. Barring an in-game setback, London should clear 69.5 receiving yards against the pass-funnel Vikings.
J.J. McCarthy passed for only 143 yards in his NFL debut against the Bears last week. He also attempted only 20 passes. Encouragingly, McCarthy saved his best for last in Week 1. After passing for only 56 yards in the first three quarters, he completed six of eight pass attempts for 87 yards in the fourth quarter.
Even on a low volume of passes, McCarthy understood his assignment, leaning heavily on Justin Jefferson. Jefferson had a 95.8% route participation rate, 10.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 74 air yards, 52.9% air yards share, 35.0% target share, 0.30 targets per route run and a 35.3% first-read rate. The luscious underlying data led to only four receptions and 44 yards, but Jefferson can perform much better this week if McCarthy builds on his strong fourth quarter last week. Atlanta permitted 157 receiving yards to Tampa Bay’s receivers in Week 1 after ceding the 11th-most receiving yards per game (152.2) to wideouts last season. As a result, FantasyPros projects Jefferson to have 92.4 receiving yards on Sunday Night Football.
Parlay Odds: +800
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.