The Chiefs are favored to complete the three-peat. However, the game’s spread is a slight 1.5 points. Kansas City will likely need to play their brand of football to wrap up their third straight Super Bowl win, which means putting the ball in the hands of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes handling the ball will reduce the opportunities on the ground for the running backs and increase the chances for Kansas City’s pass-catching options.
Thus, one of the following suggested higher/lower pick’em plays is a “lower” for one of Kansas City’s running backs. Another is a “higher” for Mahomes’ top pass-catching weapon. Sandwiched between those props is another “lower” for an oft-ignored player in the passing game.
The Chiefs are favored to complete the three-peat. However, the game’s spread is a slight 1.5 points. Kansas City will likely need to play their brand of football to wrap up their third straight Super Bowl win, which means putting the ball in the hands of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes handling the ball will reduce the opportunities on the ground for the running backs and increase the chances for Kansas City’s pass-catching options.
Thus, one of the following suggested higher/lower pick’em plays is a “lower” for one of Kansas City’s running backs. Another is a “higher” for Mahomes’ top pass-catching weapon. Sandwiched between those props is another “lower” for an oft-ignored player in the passing game.
Isiah Pacheco’s production has lacked since he returned from injured reserve (IR). Through the season’s first two games, Pacheco had 34 rush attempts for 135 yards. However, he was out from Week 3 through Week 12.
Pacheco returned from IR in Week 13 with seven rush attempts for 44 yards. Sadly, his efficiency cratered after that game. He had 14 rush attempts for 55 yards and 3.93 yards per carry in Week 14 but 3.0 yards per carry or fewer in four out of five subsequent contests.
The Chiefs might have hoped Pacheco would shake the rust off, feeding him seven, 14, 13 and nine carries in his first four games back from IR. They’ve since stopped feeding him ineffective carries. In Pacheco’s past three games, he’s had only five, five and six rush attempts for 12, 18 and 18 yards. Pacheco hasn’t done anything to prompt the Chiefs to feed him more, and Kareem Hunt has performed acceptably, albeit without much flash.
In addition, the matchup isn’t ideal for Pacheco’s rushing outlook. The Eagles have a pass-funnel defense. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Philadelphia has faced a 66% situation-neutral pass rate in the playoffs. FantasyPros projects Pacheco for only 5.5 rush attempts in the Super Bowl.
Facing a pass-funnel defense is stellar for Patrick Mahomes’ passing outlook and the receiving upside for some of his pass-catchers. Nevertheless, not everyone is involved in Kansas City’s passing attack.
The running backs haven’t been heavily involved in the passing game for the Chiefs. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in Kansas City’s last seven meaningful games (Week 13 through Week 17 and the playoffs), Hunt, Samaje Perine and Pacheco have had route participation rates of 28.1%, 22.5% and 20%, respectively. The three-way split has resulted in 10, 10 and 11 targets (1.4, 1.4 and 1.6 per game) for the running backs in that sample.
Hunt has eclipsed 1.5 receptions in only two of his last seven games, falling short in three straight and five of his past six games. Finally, if the game script gets away from the Chiefs, Perine is the club’s best bet to play in catch-up mode as their most qualified passing-down running back. FantasyPros projects Hunt for only 1.2 receptions in the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs have rotated through their wide receivers. Yet, Xavier Worthy has emerged as a mainstay on the field and Mahomes’ top pass-catching weapon. In Kansas City’s last seven meaningful games, Worthy has paced the team in route participation (79.3%), target share (22.1%), first-read percentage (26.2%), receptions (42) and receiving yards per game (59.3).
The rookie speedster has played his most impactful football down the stretch, setting a season-high for receiving yards (85) in the AFC Conference Championship. He’s surpassed 56.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games. FantasyPros projects him for 58.4 receiving yards against the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
