The Dolphins and Ravens each have just two wins. However, expectations are still relatively high for Baltimore, and they’re 7.5-point favorites in Miami. The following suggested player props align with the expected game scripts for each team based on the game’s spread. Below are my best NFL Thursday Night Football bets for Week 9’s Dolphins-Ravens matchup.
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Best Week 9 NFL Thursday Night Football Bets
All bets are for one unit unless otherwise specified.
Derrick Henry 10+ Rushing Yards in Each Quarter (+125 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Derrick Henry’s season hasn’t lived up to his standard. However, he played much better with Lamar Jackson starting, and Jackson is expected back this week. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, King Henry put up the following stats in Jackson’s four starts:
- 49 rush attempts
- 284 rushing yards (71 per game)
- 5.80 yards per carry
- 2.67 yards before contact per attempt
- 3.12 yards after contact per attempt
- 10.2% explosive run rate (runs of 15+ yards)
Henry has a sweet matchup this week. Since Week 5, the Dolphins have yielded 132 rushing yards per game, 4.93 yards per carry and an 8.4% explosive run rate.
According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Dolphins are tied for facing the second-highest situation-neutral rush rate (50%) this year. Henry should be busy out of the gate, allowing him to record at least 10 rushing yards in the first and second quarters. Moreover, if the game goes according to the spread, King Henry should be busy salting away the game in the second half, awarding him the opportunity to reach at least 10 rushing yards in the third and fourth quarters against a soft run defense.
Jaylen Waddle Most Receiving Yards (+200 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Jaylen Waddle’s primary competition for leading the game in receiving yards is Zay Flowers, who has shorter odds. Flowers should thrive against Miami’s lousy secondary. While the Ravens can turn to the run to salt the game away, Miami will likely air it out late as part of a comeback. In a game with a projected closer final margin, I’d likely give the nod to Flowers.
However, the Dolphins are large underdogs and have a pass-leaning offense when the game is close. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Miami has a 60% situation-neutral pass rate, and the Ravens have faced a 56% situation-neutral rate.
Jaylen Waddle 70+ Receiving Yards (+112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jaylen Waddle will probably need at least 70 receiving yards to lead the game in receiving yards, and if he reaches at least 70 and doesn’t lead the game, gamers can still come out ahead betting a unit on both.
Waddle’s production has exploded in Tyreek Hill’s absence. In four subsequent games, Waddle has recorded the following stats:
- 72.1% route participation
- 14.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 50.5% air yards share
- 21.3% target share
- 0.27 targets per route run
- 27 targets (6.8 per game)
- 28.7% first-read rate
- 18 receptions (4.5 per game)
- 319 receiving yards (79.8 per game)
- 3.16 yards per route run (YPRR)
- 11.81 yards per target
- 17.72 yards per reception
Waddle has tallied at least 95 receiving yards in three out of four games without Hill, with a median of 97.
Waddle’s matchup is also eye-catching. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Ravens have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game (159) to wide receivers this season. Per StatHead, Baltimore has allowed five receivers to reach at least 70 receiving yards this season.
Waddle should also enjoy Baltimore’s tendencies in coverage. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Ravens have played man coverage at the third-highest rate (39.4%) and single-high coverage at the fourth-highest rate (61.4%) this season. Waddle has 0.29 targets per route run and 1.89 YPRR against man coverage and 0.30 targets per route run and 3.08 YPRR against single-high coverage this season. FantasyPros projects Waddle for 70.8 receiving yards against the Ravens.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.