The NFL International Series kicks off in Melbourne, Australia, in Week 1. The game will be played at 10:35 AM local time on Friday morning, which will be equivalent to 8:35 PM ET on Thursday night (streamed via Netflix). It’s pretty crazy that the league has tasked these teams with playing under such unusual circumstances, especially during the first week of the season. Both teams face massive travel and rest implications that add another layer to a super key NFC West matchup that could affect NFC playoff seedings. I think this game underwhelms, but that doesn’t mean I won’t be watching.

So sit back, throw some shrimp on the barbie, and cheer for defense! Because imagine not taking the UNDER in the land down UNDER. Couldn’t be me. Lock of the week. Under 48.5.

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NFL Week 1 International Series: Melbourne, Australia

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Under 48.5

Trends

NFL International Series games have averaged just under 44 total points per game from 2007-2024, with designated visitors outscoring designated home teams 24-20 on average - a real historical trend pushing toward the Under relative to this 48.5 total.
The Rams’ last six games at neutral/international venues have gone Under the total.
Only 2 of the last 5 all-time meetings between the Rams and 49ers have gone Over 48.5 points in regulation.
The Rams have gone Over in each of their last six games.
As home favorites specifically, the Rams have trended Under since 2024 (3-8) and since 2023 (5-12).
The 49ers are 2-6 ATS as road underdogs. The Rams have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the 49ers.

Injuries

DL Sam Okuayinonu - OUT (foot)
DL Mykel Williams - PUP, will miss the first four games (recovering from a torn ACL suffered in 2025)
EDGE Nick Bosa is expected to play; concern is his return from a season-ending injury.
DL Keion White and Romello Height are also listed as questionable.
TE George Kittle - also confirmed likely to play (Sept 7, per OC Klay Kubiak), returning from last season’s Achilles injury. Workload TBD.
WR Puka Nacua - psoas injury, but per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler (9/6), he’s “been back in stride… no setbacks,” and the Rams expect him to play (not expected to be suspended).
TE Terrance Ferguson - was out with “soreness,” is back doing individual drills, and is expected to play.
DE Myles Garrett - minor knee inflammation in camp; per Ian Rapoport, “don’t expect him to be limited at all”; expected to play.
DT Aaron Donald - will be inactive.

Overall:

The historical International Series scoring number (just under 44 points per game since 2007) lines up with taking the game total under 48.5, as does the Rams’ neutral-site history (six straight Unders). Plus, the two teams’ head-to-head total history (2 of 5 Over 48.5) points in the same direction. The Rams have had the upper hand ATS versus the 49ers in the recent matchups. And if that trend continues…I’d bet it has a lot to do with their revamped defense.

When I recorded early lookahead bets for Week 1, this game total always stood out to me. Way too high. I want/need this game total under. And I believe that all the variables/trends at play clearly support this as the side of the bet you want to be on. Week 1 games typically shy toward the under. League-wide, Week 1 openers have gone Under in 54.6% of games since 2014 (95-79-1).

The one trend that contradicts the under is the Rams. Currently, they are on a red-hot six-game straight over streak. But this seems more like a pattern destined for regression. The 2026 Rams defense is VASTLY improved compared to the 2025 unit that created more high-scoring contests.

The Rams traded for DPOY Myles Garrett this offseason and Aaron Donald came out of retirement to rejoin the line - both real, and both plausible drivers of a legitimately better Rams front.

LA’s defense looks ready to rock and roll even if Donald has to miss Week 1.

The Rams ranked fourth in pressure rate last season (26%) and just added last year's reigning sack record-breaker.

Jared Verse had no problems generating pressures last season, but he didn't always finish with the sack. That won't be an issue with Garrett entrenched as the Rams' top pass rusher. Add that the Rams led the NFL in dropped interceptions (10) and revamped their secondary with the additions of CBs Jaylen Watson/Trent McDuffie - LA is knocking on the door of DST No. 1 in fantasy football circles. Expect them to make noise in Week 1.

And although the 49ers are still licking their wounds from last year’s defensive injuries, they will still have some of their key personnel back, such as LB Fred Warner and EDGE Nick Bosa. They also added DT Osa Odighizuwa and LB Dre Greenlawn.

Keep in mind that both of these defenses LAST SEASON ranked top-15 in scoring.

Also worth weighing on the travel/rest angle: the Rams are taking a late-arrival approach to Australia (traveling the day before kickoff) while the 49ers have gone the early-arrival route - the opposite prep strategies could cut either way on energy levels Thursday night. Whatever the outcome, you can bet teams traveling to Aussie in the future will follow the victorious team’s plan.

Props

I know I have shed some optimism on the 49ers’ defense, but our resident San Fran fan/analyst – Chris Welsh – still thinks it’s BUNS. I definitely think their defensive line can get exposed, putting the Rams’ rushing attack in a positive position to post high rushing totals. Blake Corum seized a larger role in the Rams’ backfield in the second half of 2025, surpassing 38.5 rushing yards in 7/10 games played. The BettingPros projections also have him to go over this number, as he is likely to switch off drives with Kyren Williams. Corum totaled 14 carries for 69 yards in two matchups versus the Niners in 2025 (4.9 ypc).

Considering this projects to be a split backfield, Williams’ rushing-attempts prop is also very juicy at 13.5 carries. The Rams RB1 surpassed 13.5 carries only thrice in his last 11 games played in 2025 (27%). He barely got there both times he faced the Niners last season (14 rushes in each game).

The Prizepicks and Underdog Optimizers also like the under on Williams’ rushing attempts based on the implied probability win % from a consensus of sportsbooks (55.6%).

Deebo Samuel caught at least 3 passes in 13/16 games played in 2025 (81%) while playing with the Washington Commanders. He also hit this number in 10/14 games played in 2024 during his most recent season with the 49ers. He is familiar with the 49ers offense and QB Brock Purdy, so I expect him to see plenty of schemed looks near the LOS against an improved Rams’ secondary. Klay Kubiak said earlier this week that “we gotta get Deebo the ball, we gotta get him his touches.”

Samuel always plays better at the start of the season than in the second half, when his production tends to dwindle. The 30-year-old WR was a top-20 fantasy WR from Weeks 1-11 in 2025. He finished the season 7th in YAC/reception despite the second-half falloff. The Prizepicks and Underdog Optimizers also like the over on Samuel’s receiving yards based on the implied probability win % from a consensus of sportsbooks (55.6%).

On the TD bets, I am lukewarm on going too aggressive, since I like the game total under. I like Corum/Samuel, but Mike Evans at north of 2-1 is definitely my favorite. Evans finished top-5 in 2023 and 2024 in receiving TDs. The TD upside is very real in the 49ers' offense; get this: Jauan Jennings finished 5th in red-zone targets last season (first in red-zone target rate). He also led the 49ers WRs in red-zone targets in 2024. Simply put, Evans is slated to score a lot of TDs in 2026. Think "this year's Davante Adams." And Brock Purdy is not afraid to sling it in the red zone. Finished 3rd in 2023 with 31 passing TDs (and that was with CMC scoring every single week...2024 was the first season where Purdy posted a passing TD rate below 7% (4.4%). Purdy's 8.5 yards per attempt ranked second-best in the NFL. He ranked 5th in passing yards per game (257.6) in 2024. The positive regression came HARD in 2025 as the 49ers QB totaled 20 passing TDs in just nine games played and finished 2nd in passing TD rate percentage with 2.22 passing TDs per game in 2025 (second behind only Matthew Stafford).