NFL Thursday Night Football PrizePicks Player Predictions: Vikings vs. Eagles (Week 2)

The Eagles host the Vikings on “Thursday Night Football” after winning a dogfight in New England in Week 1. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s one-score luck from 2022 didn’t carry over to this year. They lost a one-score game at home against the Buccaneers. Understandably, the Eagles are favored, and the following picks were made with that in mind.

Here are my best PrizePicks player predictions for Week 2, “Thursday Night Football,” Vikings vs. Eagles.

Best TNF Week 2 PrizePicks Player Predictions

T.J. Hockenson OVER 5.0 Receptions

Hockenson is a target sponge for the Vikings. He had a 20.5% target share and, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), was targeted on 22.2% of his routes in Week 1. Additionally, Hockenson’s been targeted on 23.3% of his routes as a member of the Vikings. Hockenson has parlayed his usage into 6.5 receptions per game and a median of 6.5.

The matchup and game script are stellar for Hockenson to exceed 5.0 receptions again this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Eagles have allowed the 11th-most receptions (89) in 18 games since Week 1 of 2022 (excluding the postseason). Moreover, Philadelphia coughed up eight receptions to Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki last week, which might not be a one-week blip on the radar since they lost linebackers T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White, as well as safeties Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps, in free agency.

Finally, the Eagles are 6.5-point favorites. So, the game script should be negative for the Vikings, which is a positive for Hockenson’s receiving outlook. As a result, FantasyPros projects Hockenson for 5.3 receptions.

Alexander Mattison Under 49.5 Rushing Yards

A negative game script would be dreadful for Mattison’s rushing potential this week. However, the Vikings are also a pass-happy offense in neutral game scripts. Per Rotoviz’s pace tool, the Vikings had the third-highest pass rate (71%) in a neutral game script in Week 1. And since last year, they’ve had the second-highest neutral pass rate (64%).

Mattison also hasn’t done anything to force them to shift their pass-and-run split, living down to the “Midison” nickname his detractors have given him. He rushed for an underwhelming 3.1 yards per attempt on 11 carries in Week 1. Mattison has rushed for fewer than 4.0 yards per carry since 2021.

The matchup is also middling. Since last year, Philadelphia’s allowed a ho-hum 4.3 yards per carry to running backs. Furthermore, they permitted 54 rushing yards on 19 attempts (2.8 yards per carry) in Week 1. Thus, Mattison likely needs at least 14 attempts to exceed 49.5 rushing yards, and I don’t expect the game script to provide him that many opportunities.

Jalen Hurts UNDER 46.5 Rushing Yards

In the offseason, the Vikings hired Brian Flores as their defensive coordinator, and he hasn’t changed. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Vikings had the highest blitz rate (52.6%) in Week 1. When Flores was Miami’s head coach from 2019 through 2021. The Dolphins were 11th, second and second in blitz rate.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, Miami allowed the second-fewest rushing yards (128) to quarterbacks in 2019, the 13th-most rushing yards (317) to them in 2020 and the sixth-fewest (216) in 2021. Quarterbacks amassed only 13.5 rushing yards per game against Flores’s defenses in Miami during those three years.

Hurts is an elite running quarterback. So, he’ll almost certainly have some success on the ground against the Vikings. Nevertheless, since last year, Hurts has rushed for fewer than 46.5 yards in 11 of his last 19 games (including the postseason). Hurts’s median in those contests was 37 rushing yards.

In addition, Hurts is an excellent passer against the blitz. According to PFF, Hurts had their ninth-highest passing grade out of 42 quarterbacks blitzed on at least 50 dropbacks last year. Therefore, he can pick apart Minnesota’s blitz with his arm instead of relying on his legs. Finally, if the Eagles handle their business and have a good game script, they’re unlikely to overuse their franchise quarterback on unnecessary designed runs late in the game.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.