We have an international matchup Sunday morning between the Atlanta Falcons and the Indianapolis Colts in Berlin, Germany. Millions of dollars will be bet on this game. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's dive into my picks for first team and anytime touchdown scorers.
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Week 10 NFL Sunday Morning Football Touchdown Scorers Picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Atlanta Falcons First TD Scorer: Tyler Allgeier (+750)
The Falcons have arguably the best running back in the NFL on their roster in Bijan Robinson. However, the former Texas star isn't the team's top touchdown producer. Instead, Allgeier leads Atlanta in rushing touchdowns, totaling four, accounting for 57.1% of the team's total. By comparison, Robinson has only two rushing touchdowns despite having 55 more attempts. More importantly, Allgeier has scored the first Falcons in three games this season, including two of the past four contests.
Meanwhile, the Colts have had a solid run defense. However, Indianapolis has struggled to keep running backs out of the end zone, surrendering six rushing touchdowns this year, including three over their past two games. Last week, Jaylen Warren had two rushing touchdowns against the Colts, including the Pittsburgh Steelers' first score of the matchup. More importantly, the first touchdown scored against Indianapolis has been by a running back in half of their games.
Indianapolis Colts First TD Scorer: Jonathan Taylor (+140)
Last week, Indianapolis suffered their second loss of the year. Unfortunately, Taylor failed to find the end zone for only the second time since Week 1. Yet, bettors shouldn't expect that to happen again on Sunday. The superstar didn't score a touchdown in both Colts losses this season. By comparison, he has 12 rushing touchdowns and two receiving scores in the team's seven wins. Taylor's 14 offensive touchdowns are four more than the next closest player (Josh Jacobs with 10).
Furthermore, the superstar has scored the first Indianapolis offensive touchdown in three of the past seven games, including two of the past three contests. Meanwhile, the Falcons' run defense has struggled lately, allowing three rushing touchdowns to running backs over the past three weeks, including one to Terrell Jennings in Week 9. More importantly, Atlanta has also struggled to defend running backs in the passing game, allowing three receiving touchdowns to the position over the past month.
Anytime TD Scorer: Kyle Pitts (+260)
Pitts has never been a massive touchdown producer. The veteran tight end has 11 receiving touchdowns in 69 career games, totaling four or fewer scores every year. Furthermore, the former Florida star has only one receiving touchdown this season, scoring in Week 4. However, bettors shouldn't be surprised if Pitts finds the end zone on Sunday. He has had success playing overseas, scoring his lone touchdown as a rookie in the only international game of his career.
Indianapolis' pass defense got a massive boost on Tuesday, trading two first-round draft picks and Adonai Mitchell to the New York Jets for Sauce Gardner. The superstar cornerback should spend most of the game shadowing Drake London. Therefore, expect Michael Penix Jr. to lean on Pitts against a Colts defense that has struggled to keep tight ends out of the end zone. They have surrendered a receiving touchdown to opposing tight ends in four consecutive outings.
Anytime TD Scorer: Josh Downs (+300)
While Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman Jr. have been Daniel Jones' top two weapons in the passing game this year, both players face tough matchups on Sunday against the Falcons. Thankfully, the veteran quarterback can lean on Downs. The former North Carolina star is second on the team with three receiving touchdowns. Furthermore, he has been outstanding lately, averaging 6.3 targets per game over his past three outings, finding the end zone in every matchup.
More importantly, Atlanta's pass defense has struggled lately after starting the season on fire. They've given up four receiving touchdowns to wide receivers over the past two weeks, allowing two in both contests. Furthermore, the Falcons can't keep opposing No. 2 wide receivers out of the end zone. They've surrendered eight receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this year, with five going to the opposing team's No. 2 option. Two of those five touchdowns came over the past two weeks.
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.