Everyone loves a good NFL underdog. Since they weren’t expected to win, the games they do are often among the most entertaining to watch and the most profitable to bet on for an outright win. That desire led to my best underdog NFL Week 1 picks.
In Week 1 last season, underdogs won outright in four out of 16 games and covered in eight. Who's going to do it this week? I've got a few ideas.
- More NFL Betting Advice
- NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- Expert NFL Game Picks
- NFL Betting Strategy
- Best +EV NFL Picks
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
NFL Week 1 Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Both teams were terrible last season. The Jets were 29th in scoring with 17.6 points per game, followed by the Titans at No. 30 with just 16.7 points per game. They were also two of the worst defenses in the league. The Jets allowed 29.6 points per game (No. 31); the Titans allowed 28.1 points per game (No. 28).
I'd give the Jets the edge simply because they have more veteran talent (Geno Smith, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson). If it were later in the season and Cam Ward had time to digest and learn Brian Daboll's system, I'd go with Tennessee. But in Week 1, this game has upset written all over it.
Pick: Jets Moneyline (+106)
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Josh Allen has not had good luck against Houston, going 1-3 all time and 0-2 since DeMeco Ryans took over the Texans. Allen threw for 253 yards against Houston last season but also threw two interceptions and was sacked eight times. C.J. Stroud will be available for this game. He led the team to a 23-20 win in 2024, completing 73.7% of his passes for 331 yards and a touchdown.
Both teams have gotten off to slow starts in the past, but I have more hope for a Buffalo offense returning eight starters. Houston has a rebuilt offensive line and a new No. 1 RB. But look for their defense to control the game and give the offense a chance to get it together.
Pick: Texans (+100)
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Detroit's offense is a top-10 unit, but so is the Saints’ defense. The Lions’ defense was mediocre, but the Saints’ offense was towards the bottom of the league - until Tyler Shough took over under center. With him at the helm, the Saints became more competitive and won four of their last five games. After an offseason as the QB1, I'm expecting big things out of Shough.
With a solid defense helping them out, I can see the Saints giving the Lions a good fight. Good enough to win? Maybe, but certainly good enough to win against the spread (ATS).
Pick: Saints +6.5 (+100)
