It's Week 1 of the NFL season, and I've researched each matchup to find the three best longshot bets for the week. Below, I explain why Chris Olave should exploit a decimated Lions secondary, why the Buccaneers and Bengals are in for a very high-scoring contest and how two underdogs can pull off upsets. Here are the best longshot NFL Week 1 picks.
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NFL Week 1 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chris Olave 2+ Touchdowns (+1200)
I fully expect the Lions to beat the Saints, but last season’s 20th-ranked pass defense is depleted for this game. Safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch are out, and cornerback Terrion Arnold joined the Seahawks after an arrest this offseason.
The Lions allowed 31 passing touchdowns last season, which was tied for the sixth-most in the league. Additionally, I expect the Lions to be playing this game with a lead, which will lead to more passing situations for the Saints.
Last season, Chris Olave led the Saints with nine receiving touchdowns. He caught multiple touchdowns in two games, one of which was started by quarterback Tyler Shough.
Buccaneers vs. Bengals Over 63.5 Points (+422)
Last season, the Bengals allowed an average of 28.9 points per game. The defense allowed 30+ points seven times. However, for as bad as the defense was, the offense, when healthy, was incredible.
Despite Joe Burrow being the Bengals' starting quarterback in just seven games, Cincinnati still finished the season averaging 24.4 points per game. That was 12th-best in the league. In games started by Burrow, the Bengals averaged 26.1 points, despite being shut out once. They scored at least 32 points in four of those seven games.
The Buccaneers return Baker Mayfield to lead an offense that averaged 22.4 points per game last season. The Buccaneers' offense was frustrating at times last season, but it should find a rhythm against a weak secondary. And the Buccaneers' defense is going to give up a lot of points to one of the league's best offenses, after allowing 24.2 points per game last season.
Dolphins Moneyline & Panthers Moneyline Parlay (+466)
Week 1 always features shocking results. Last season, it was the Raiders defeating the eventual AFC champion Patriots in New England. The year before, it was the Saints, who finished 5-12, putting up 47 points in a 37-point win over the Panthers. This season, I'm backing two Week 1 underdogs to win.
First, I think the Dolphins are being overlooked in their matchup against the Raiders. The Raiders will be without Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty is banged up and Kirk Cousins' wide receiving corps is arguably the worst in the league. The Dolphins are going to be one of the worst teams in football, but let’s back the Week 1 upside of De'Von Achane and Malik Willis to narrowly defeat Las Vegas.
Then there are the Panthers. Fresh off an AFC South title, they're underdogs at home against the Bears. While the Bears' offense is exciting and averaged 25.9 points per game last season, I think the Panthers' defense is being underrated. This is a unit that held four of their final six regular-season opponents to 20 points or fewer last season. The only two teams to top that number were the Rams and Seahawks.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.