NFL Week 1 PrizePicks Player Predictions: Sunday (9/10)

Rejoice! Football is back. Below are a few NFL PrizePicks that caught my eye for the Week 1 of the NFL.

Best NFL Week 1 PrizePicks Player Predictions

This season: 0-0

Alexander Mattison Over 66.5 Rush Yards

As -5.5 favorites at home, the Vikings will likely be playing with a lead throughout the game against Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. They don't possess the lockdown interior defensive line used to have and were in the middle of the pack in rush defense last season.

Who else is running the ball for the Vikings? All reports from camp have Mattison pegged as a 3-down workhorse. Rookie Ty Chandler and Myles Gaskin sit behind him on the depth chart, but it's pretty doubtful they see much time on the field in week 1.

Mattison dominated carries when he filled in for Dalvin Cook in the past. In his four starts in 2021, Mattison had carry/yardage lines of 26/122, 25/113. 22/90, and 13/41.

J.K. Dobbins Over 59.5 Rush Yards

Similar to the Mattison play, the Ravens should be playing with a significant lead as -10 home favorites over the Texans, who have a rookie QB and head coach at the helm. John Harbaugh has stated that Dobbins will not have any snap count limitations and is in line for a hefty workload. He has a career 5.9 YPC and should feast on the ground in this spot. The Texans allowed the 4th highest YPC (5.1) last season and were 24th in rush defense DVOA.

Khalil Herbert Over 51.5 Rush Yards

The Packers were a run-funnel all season long last season, allowing the 5th-highest YPC (5.0) and had the 2nd worst rush defense by EPA's metrics. The Bears are well aware of this and torched Green Bay on the ground in their two contests last season. David Montgomery had 15 carries for 122 rush yards in week 2 and 14/61 in week 13.

There were only 2 games last season where an RB failed to eclipse this mark against them. Herbert appears to be locked in as the lead-back for the Bears this season. When he saw double-digit carries in 2022, Herbert had 50+ rush yards in 6/6 games, averaging nearly 84 yards per game.

Calvin Ridley Over 63.5 Receiving Yards

Trevor Lawrence was a top-five QB in the back half of last season and should only continue to grow this season. The Jags will undoubtedly want to get Ridley in a rhythm early and often since this will be his first game since Week 6 of 2021. Indianapolis possesses one of the worst secondaries on paper this year, and we all know what Ridley is capable of when he is on the field. He looked great in his limited time with Lawrence during the pre-season, connecting on all five targets for 71 yards.

Jahan Dotson Over 42.5 Receiving Yards

Dotson looks poised to make the classic 2nd year WR breakout. He showed flashes of his potential towards the end of last season and cleared this in four of his last five games, averaging 69 yards per game. He ranked in the 95th percentile in separation against one-on-one coverage last year and was in lockstep with Sam Howell in the preseason. Dotson had 7 grabs on 9 targets, resulting in 106 yards receiving.

The Cardinals graded out as one of the worst pass defenses last season, ranking 23rd in dropback EPA/play, and don't look any better heading into this season. This is such a low number for Dotson to eclipse, and he could do so after the first half.

CeeDee Lamb Over 73.5 Receiving Yards

There is no one on the Giants capable of slowing Lamb down, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him be receiving yards leader of the week. Wink Martindale, the Giants defensive coordinator, regularly leaves his cornerbacks in one-on-one coverage with his blitz-heavy approach, and we saw Lamb go off against this defense last year on multiple occasions. He finished with an 8/87 line with a TD in Week 3 and a 6/106 in Week 12. Lamb had 70+ yards in 11/17 games last season and should pick up right where he left off on Sunday Night Football.

Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @808Paperboi.