For the past few NFL seasons, each Sunday night I've written an early bets piece highlighting some applicable trends I've noticed for the upcoming week.
I'm not a trends bettor, but I find that historical situational data helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
So here are some trends for Week 12 as well as a few early bets I like based on the current lines in the market and my early personal projections, which I will update throughout the week along with our premium BettingPros spread projections.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Note: For more of my early Week 12 bets, check out the BettingPros App.
All lines and odds are from the BettingPros NFL odds page and as of Nov. 20. All the historical trends information is from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions
Check out our Bills at Lions matchup page.
- Kickoff: Thursday, Nov. 24, 2022, 12:30 pm ET
- Location: Ford Field
- Consensus Spread: Lions +9.5
Bills at Lions: 2022 ATS Records
- Bills ATS: 4-5-1 (-14.6% ROI)
- Lions ATS: 6-4 (15.6% ROI)
Detroit Lions Trend
- HC Dan Campbell: 17-9 ATS (25.1% ROI) as underdog
- HC Dan Campbell: 6-3 ATS (27.3% ROI) vs. opponent with winning record
Bills at Lions: Early Bet
- Best Line: Lions +10 (-115, DraftKings)
- Early Projection: Lions +8
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the lookahead line of +10.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
Check out our Texans at Dolphins matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- Consensus Spread: Dolphins -11.5
Texans at Dolphins: 2022 ATS Records
- Texans ATS: 5-5 (-5.2% ROI)
- Dolphins ATS: 5-5 (-4.1% ROI)
Miami Dolphins Trends
- QB Tua Tagovailoa: 11-4 ATS (40.4% ROI) at home
- QB Tua Tagovailoa: 5-2 ATS (37.0% ROI) in 2022 games with a 90% snap rate
Texans at Dolphins: Early Bet
- Best Line: Dolphins -11.5 (-110, FanDuel)
- Early Projection: Dolphins -13.75
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the lookahead line of -10.
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
Check out our Saints at 49ers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: Levi’s Stadium
- Consensus Spread: Saints +8.5
Saints at 49ers: 2022 ATS Records
- Saints ATS: 4-7 (-30.4% ROI)
- 49ers ATS: 4-5 (-15.3% ROI) – before 49ers play Week 11 MNF
New Orleans Saints Trends
- QB Andy Dalton: 42-33-2 ATS (10.2% ROI) as underdog
- QB Andy Dalton: 4-4 ATS (-4.4% ROI) in 2022
San Francisco 49ers Trends
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 17-28-1 ATS (19.3% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 16-24-1 ATS (15.8% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 8-16-1 ATS (26.9% ROI for faders) as home favorite
Saints at 49ers: Early Bet
- Best Line: Saints +8.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Early Projection: Saints +7.25
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the early line of +8.5.
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