The Dallas Cowboys will try to win their fourth game of the season this week when they travel to Maryland to take on their hated rival, the Washington Commanders, at Northwest Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET.
When the line for this historic rivalry game first opened, the Cowboys were 3.5-point favorites. However, with how the season has played out for both teams, there has been a massive shift as the Cowboys will be double-digit underdogs against the Commanders for the first time since the 2000 season.
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Cowboys vs. Commanders Betting Preview
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Details
- Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5, O/U 46.5
- Closing Line: Commanders -10.5, O/U 45.5 (-110/-110)
- Location: Northwest Stadium, in Landover, MD
- Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Last Meeting: January 7, 2024 - Dallas Cowboys won 38-10
Overview
The Dallas Cowboys’ downfall has been one of the biggest stories of the season. Who would have thought a team that went 12-5 the last three seasons would crash and burn as badly as Dallas has this season?
This team had the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense and No. 5 scoring defense last season. But this season, the defense is second to last, while the offense is in the bottom quarter of the league.
What happened? The answer to that question will likely be debated throughout the offseason as Dallas takes its next steps. However, this game may not have been a blowout loss waiting to happen.
Yes, Jayden Daniels has been one of the most exciting rookies in the NFL this season. He, along with new head coach Dan Quinn, has transformed a perennial loser into one of the better teams in the NFL at this stage of the season.
However, Daniels and the Commanders have not been the uber-impressive team they were in the first month of the season for a few weeks now. Since losing to the Ravens in Week 6, they’ve gone 3-2. But the wins were against some of the NFL’s worst teams (Carolina, Chicago, New York Giants).
The losses? They were against two playoff-bound teams - Steelers and Eagles. While Daniels has not played poorly, he has also not made plays when the Commanders needed him to.
But this Dallas team is so bad that it won’t matter, right?
Cooper Rush and the Cowboys’ offense have struggled, but when the Cowboys finally abandoned a dreadful run game against the Texans, Rush passed for 354 yards. All those yards only generated one touchdown against a decent Texans defense, though. What will happen against the Commanders’ mediocre defense?
Trends
- This game will be the third in a row between the Commanders and Cowboys where one team was a double-digit favorite. The favorite won and covered in the last two.
- A total of 75% of the bets and 85% of the handle at BetMGM are on the Commanders.
- Only 6% of Moneyline bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and 36% of the handle is on the Cowboys.
- The over is 14-16 in the last 30 meetings on Washington’s home field.
Bottom Line
There is no way Dallas should win this game, which means they might have a chance. Before this season, Cooper Rush had a 5-1 record as a starter for the Cowboys, so we know he is a capable quarterback. Although, he had a healthy defense and effective running game, helping him out then.
However, the Commanders’ less-than-impressive showing of late and Rush’s surprising success in the passing game last week have me thinking they might pull off an upset in this game. However, keeping it competitive might be more likely.
Pick: Cowboys +10.5 (-112)
