I don't normally complain about "bad beats" in a market as fickle as Anytime TD scorers, but last Sunday saw a TD called back from Michael Pittman Jr. due to an absolutely ridiculous phantom OPI call, Emega Egbuka drop a wide open walk in TD, and Rashod Bateman drop a ball on a crossing route on the 2-yard line. We still got to the window with some nice odds in the 2/1 range with Tee Higgins and Colby Parkinson, but those handful of plays kept us from having a really big week. But enough of that, we're onto Week 15 which features some really nice matchups and great odds for some "second string" guys to score. It's time to get back on a hot streak heading into the playoffs.
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Best NFL Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted)
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC) (+175)
Second-year man Brian Thomas Jr. has had a pretty disappointing season on the heels of his stellar rookie campaign, with his 2025 season defined by injuries and an overall lack of production. Thomas has actually failed to eclipse 90 yards this year, and has just one receiving TD entering Week 15. Last week's performance was encouraging though, as Thomas recorded 87 yards on just three receptions, including a 39-yarder. The Jaguars figure to have a pretty cake matchup this week against a hapless Jets team with a defense that ranks 6th in terms of points allowed per game. His red zone stats aren't going to pop due to his lack of availability and the fact that he's more of a big-play receiver, as his 15.3 yards per reception ranks him in the top-10 of qualified WRs. I think it would behoove the Jags to give Thomas plenty of opportunities down the stretch to build his confidence and get him going before their playoff run. These odds are just a little too long for Thomas, who recorded double-digit receiving TDs last year, to get back into the end zone against a porous Jets defense which traded away, Sauce Gardner, one of the best CBs in the league, at the deadline.
Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans
This is a little bit of a play on the potential Woody Marks injury, and a little bit of a play on the terrible Cardinals rushing defense. The Cardinals rank bottom-10 in terms of rushing yards allowed, and bottom-5 in both fantasy points allowed and TDs allowed to opposing RBs. Despite the fact that he's conceded the majority of the backfield workload to Marks and has dealt with injuries throughout the season, Chubb has still accounted for just shy of one-fourth of all red zone carries for the Texans and has seen his workload increase the closer they get to the goal line, garnering 35% of all carries inside the 5-yard line. Add in the fact that this is the biggest spread CJ Stroud has had as a starter in his entire career, and this should lean to a very run-heavy ballgame which may figure more carries than normal for Chubb as the RB2. I think the Texans cruise this week, and you can do much worse than taking a shot on Chubb as a very relevant backup RB against a horrible rushing defense.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE) (+230)
Rhamondre Stevenson seemed to be fully back from his injury the last time the Patriots took the field, getting the start and recording more carries and all-purpose yards than his backfield mate TreVeyon Henderson. The Patriots will be returning from a bye this week as well, giving Stevenson a little extra time to get healthy. Both of the Patriots RBs have great matchups this week against a Bills defense that has sneakily been gashed by opposing RBs. The Bills are allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, including the 6th-most rushing yards and a league-leading 16 rushing TDs to RBs. Stevenson is responsible for two of those TDs himself, as he scored twice in their Week 5 victory over Buffalo. Despite the injuries and the rookie year hype surrounding Henderson, the Patriots RBs have logged the exact same amount of red zone rushes and rushes inside the 10-yard line, but Stevenson has proven to be the true goal-line back with eight rushes inside the 5-yard line compared to just three for Henderson. Give me Stevenson to score this week with odds that are considerably longer than Henderson's in a really good matchup against a Bills defense that he's already scored on twice against this season.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice returned from his suspension like he never left, with 7+ targets and 4+ receptions for six total touchdowns in seven games. He also ranks top-10 in the NFL in red zone targets and is currently ranked 2nd in terms of targets inside the 10-yard line, which is again absolute bananas considering the amount of games he's missed this season. He has also accounted for 11% of all Chiefs rushes inside the 5-yard line, which is pretty incredible considering the multiple RB options they have at their disposal combined with Mahomes ability to scramble. Kansas City absolutely has to win out to even have a shot to make the playoffs, and I expect for the ball to be in their best playmaker's hands early and often. I'm taking Rice to score this week at anything even odds or better.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI) (+280)
Don't get it twisted, this Eagles offense has been an absolutely brutal watch for a majority of the season. Things figure to come much easier this week, against a bottom-10 Raiders team that'll be starting Kenny Pickett without much of anything to play for the rest of the season. Goedert ranks 2nd behind AJ Brown in terms of red zone targets on the Eagles offense but actually has just as many targets inside the 10-yard line, accounting for 35% of all such targets. It's been five weeks since Goedert has scored, when he came off of a streak of scoring seven TDs in just six games, and he's absolutely due to get back in the end zone. At nearly 3/1 odds for a high-volume, high-leverage target with seven TDs on the season, give me Goedert to get back into the end zone this weekend.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Isaiah Likely (TE – BAL) (+220)
The fact that any relevant TE has odds in excess of 2/1 against the Bengals is pretty insane considering just how bad the Bengals defense has been against the TE position this year. The Bengals are the only team in football that has allowed more than 1,000 yards to TEs (1,258 to be exact), the only team to allow double-digit TDs to TEs (15), and are allowing a league-leading 16.6 fantasy points per game to TEs. Tight ends aside the Bengals defense has been putrid in general, leading the league in points and yards allowed per game. Likely has slowly seen his workload increase down the stretch, garnering a season-high six targets in each of their previous two games. He scored in their most recent contest in last week's loss to the Steelers, and should have scored on Thanksgiving night against this same Bengals defense if he didn't fumble the ball at the goal line for a touchback. Speaking of that Bengals game, he recorded a season-high 95 yards on just five receptions. The Bills has two TEs score against the Bengals just last week, and I think that could be in the cards again this week. I like Mark Andrews to score in this game as well, but I'll take Likely as the guy with the longer odds as my official pick for this game.
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
Theo Johnson (TE – NYG) (+250)
If it weren't for the Bengals historically bad defense against TEs, the Commanders would be the worst defense against the TE position in 2025. Washington is conceding the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs, and has allowed the 2nd-most TDs to the TE position. Theo Johnson has been a bright spot on this offense in the absence of Malik Nabers, recording 3+ receptions in all but one game that Nabers has missed. Johnson has become a real weapon around the goal line as well, leading the Giants in both red zone targets and targets within the 10-yard line, ranking top-15 in the entire NFL in terms of target share in both categories. It's been a while since Johnson has found the end zone after ripping off five TDs in a 6-week span over the middle of the season, but he couldn't ask for a better matchup to break that streak here in Week 15. He'll be a much bigger part of the offense than he was in New York's Week 1 matchup against Washington, and I think he gets back into the end zone in this A+ matchup.
Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears
Kyle Monangai (RB – CHI) (+135)
The Bears and Browns face off on Sunday in very fitting conditions for these two cold-weather teams, with temperature highs sitting in the teens right now. I see that resulting in a very run-heavy game script for the Bears as touchdown favorites against a Browns defense that has been absolute stalwarts against the opposing passing game. The Browns lead the NFL in terms of passing yards per game, but rank in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing yards per game and fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. That should make for a good matchup against this Bears rushing attack, which ranks 2nd in the NFL in terms of yards per game. Rookie RB Kyle Monangai has carved himself out a nice role in that dynamic rushing game, recording 12+ carries in all but two games since the middle of October, including five TDs in that eight-game span. All five of those TDs have come in Bears wins as well, which increases the likelihood that he scores this week based on game script alone. Monangai is essentially neck-and-neck with backfield mate D’Andre Swift in terms of carries inside the 20-yard line, which is pretty impressive for a rookie that really didn't factor into this offense until the middle of the season. I'll take Monangai to score what could be the only TD in this game which figures to be an absolute defensive grinder.
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – SF) (+310)
The 49ers enter this game as massive favorites of nearly two TDs against the 2-win Titans, which should mean increased opportunities for backup RB Brian Robinson Jr. Robinson has quietly held a pretty consistent workload as of late, garnering 7+ carries in each of their last four games and five out of the last seven. He's been very efficient as well, with 36+ yards and 4+ YPC in over half of those contests. B-Rob has gotten some chances in scoring territory as well, garnering 10% of 49ers carries inside the red zone and 10-yard line, respectively. The Titans have been susceptible to opposing RBs all season long, ranking bottom-10 in terms of fantasy points allowed to RBs and allowing T-3rd most TDs to opposing RBs. Both of B-Rob's TDs this season have come in games that have been decided by 10+ points, and I think we're in for a similar game script against the Titans here this week. Give me B-Rob to clean up in garbage time and record his 3rd rushing TD of the season in a great spot.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams
ARSB looked just fine in his return to action last week after exiting the Thanksgiving Day game early due to injury, racking up 92 yards on 6 receptions. There's not much to say about ARSB that you don't already know, but he has recorded at least five receptions and eight targets in all but two of his healthy games this season for nine receiving TDs, which is T-2nd in the NFL. The Sun God ranks 5th in the NFL in terms of red zone targets and T-2nd in terms of targets inside the 10-yard line, which is impressive for a WR of his stature. This game figures to have points galore, featuring the highest total on the board by a wide margin at a sky-high O/U of 55.5. In a game that includes 4 players with minus odds to score, I'll take ARSB at anything even odds or better as the clear WR1 and target monster around the goal line for Jared Goff and the Lions.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Rico Dowdle cemented himself as RB1 in Carolina this season despite the extension that they just recently signed with backfield mate Chubba Hubbard, as Dowdle has recorded multiple monster games of 130+ rushing yards and 50+ receiving yards. Dowdle has garnered 18+ touches in seven of Carolina's nine games since the beginning of October, with five total TDs over that span. He has recorded half of Carolina's red zone carries and carries inside the 10-yard line, and has accounted for 62% of all carries inside the 5-yard line. The Panthers should be able to lean into their run game as favorites of nearly a field goal, which figures to be a solid game plan against a Saints defense which has allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to opponent's RBs and ranks in the bottom-half of the league in fantasy points and TDs allowed to RBs. Dowdle scored the only Panthers touchdown in their surprising home loss to New Orleans just a few weeks ago, and I like him to find pay dirt against them again here in Week 15.
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN) (+210)
As a guy who gave out Troy Franklin to score last week, it seems like he's been slowly phased out of the offense in recent weeks, recording more than four receptions only once in their previous five games with just swven combined targets in the past two weeks. The opposite can be said for Sutton, who's averaging five receptions on eight targets over the previous three weeks after a midseason lull where he had a string of pretty underwhelming performances during the month of October. Franklin still leads all Denver receivers in red zone targets, but Sutton ranks 2nd on the team and has just two fewer targets inside the 10-yard line than Franklin. The Packers defense grades out pretty well against opposing wideouts, but I think that's just giving us some extra value on Sutton here who also has touchdowns on the season against pretty elite pass defenses in the Chargers and Texans. Give me Sutton at anything 2/1 odds or better to score this week.
Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks
Look, I get it, 44-year-old Philip Rivers is active and set to play this week for the Colts in his first start since 2020, but these odds are way too long for the star Rookie TE Tyler Warren. For starters, the Seahawks have been extremely vulnerable to the TE position this season, conceding the 7th-most fantasy points per game and 2nd-most receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. Warren is also far and away the Colts biggest threat in scoring position, ranking top-10 in the entire NFL in Red Zone targets and top-5 in terms of targets inside the 10-yard line. Plus, the Colts have shown that they aren't afraid to hand the ball off to Warren either, as he has six carries on the year for a TD. I do expect for the Colts to deploy a run-heavy game script, but the veteran QB Rivers knows that his best friend this week should be the very reliable TE Warren. Give me Warren at an extremely discounted price to find the end zone against a Seahawks defense that has been sneakily susceptible to the TE position all year long.
