NFL Week 16 PrizePicks Player Predictions: Sunday (2023)

Happy Holidays from the NFL! We’ve got a bevy of games this Christmas Eve and a trio of contests on Monday night. The game of the week hands down is the Ravens taking on the 49ers, and you best believe there’s a prop write-up for that banger of a matchup in this article. Let’s jump right into it!

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Best NFL Week 16 PrizePicks Player Predictions

This season: 51-54

D’Andre Swift Over 64.5 Rush Yards

Losers of three straight, this is a get-right spot for the Eagles taking on the Giants at home. New York is 22nd in defensive EPA per play and 26th in opponent yards per play. As 13-point home favorites, this looks like a game where the Eagles will be able to lean on the ground game heavily once they find a lead. Zoning in on their rush defense, the Giants are 25th in rush EPA, and have allowed the fourth-highest yards per carry to running backs. Since taking over as the lead back for Philadelphia in Week 2, D’Andre Swift has averaged 69 rush yards per game and has at least 56 rush yards in nine of 13.

Calvin Ridley Over 57.5 Receiving Yards

With news of Trevor Lawrence playing, this is a smash spot for Calvin Ridley. The Buccaneers are a pass funnel for every single offense. We saw Desmond Ridder (now benched) throw for 347 yards against them two weeks back. They are 25th in dropback EPA per play and have allowed the second-most receiving yards to wide receivers. Jaxsonville is pretty thin at receiver right now with both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones out as well, so it will essentially be the Ridley and Evan Engram show in the passing attack for them. The Jaguars defense isn’t stopping anyone right now either, so this game looks primed for a good old-fashioned shootout, which sets up Ridley to see plenty of action throughout the game.

Isaiah Likely Over 38.5 Receiving Yards

Isaiah Likely has filled in nicely for Mark Andrews. Over the last three games without Andrews around, Likely has recorded 40, 83, and 70 receiving yards, and is tied with Odell Beckham Jr. in targets with 13. The 49ers haven't really ceded much production to tight ends, but that has more to do with the quality of TEs they have faced. Trey McBride went off against them last week for 102 yards on 10 grabs. T.J. Hockenson had 86 yards on 11 receptions back in Week 7 as well. I'm not here to say Likely is as good as them, but he is a big part of the passing offense right now. With the 49ers consistently putting up around 30 points a game, Baltimore will have to keep up, and Likely should go over this mark once again.

Chuba Hubbard Over 17 Rush Attempts

Even since Frank Reich has been fired, the Panthers have leaned on their running back substantially, and Chuba Hubbard has been the primary recipient. Over the last three games, he has handled a whopping 25, 22, and 23 carries. The Packers aren’t really adept at stopping the run either, ranking 19th in rush EPA, and allowing the 9th-highest yards per carry to tailbacks. They have also allowed the third most rush attempts per game to the position.

Justin Jefferson Over 83.5 Receiving Yards

A big Justin Jefferson game should be in the cards this weekend, as the Vikings take on the porous Lions defense. They are 23rd in dropback EPA. In his first game with Nick Mullins last week, he had a team-high 10 targets, which he turned into seven receptions for 84 yards. The Lions should be able to get what they want on offense, and the Vikings will have to answer through their passing attack.

DJ Moore Over 65.5 Receiving Yards

The Bears get as good of a matchup as any passing attack will get. Arizona has routinely been beaten through the air and ranks 31st in dropback EPA per play. DJ Moore is Justin Field’s most trusted target and has 68+ receiving yards in six of nine full games with him, averaging 96 yards per game. Alternate lines could be in play for him, given his propensity to cross the century mark with Fields. He has 100+ yards in four games.

Javonte Williams Under 55.5 Rushing Yards

New England’s rushing defense is like running into a brick wall. They own the best rush EPA and have allowed the second-lowest yards per carry to running backs. They held Clyde Edward-Helaire to a 13/37 line last week, Austin Ekeler to 14/18 the week prior, and Saquon Barkley finished with a 12/46 mark back in Week 13. A running back has rushed for 56 yards or less in 10 of 15 games against them.

Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @808Paperboi.