NFL Week 2 Player Props Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

As someone who has an extensive DFS background, the transition to betting player props over the past four years has featured a lot of ups and downs. Yet, last year, I refined my process to incorporate more unders and anytime touchdowns. While the books have become sharper at setting prop lines, there are still ways to exploit unders and the anytime touchdown market.

As you read on, there will still be overs, but there has to be a massive market inefficiency.

So, without further ado, here's an under, an over and an anytime touchdown player prop bet for you to consider for NFL Week. I’ll be sweating alongside, as I bet everything that I recommend.

NFL Week 2 Player Props Odds, Picks & Predictions

Justin Herbert Under 286.5 Passing Yards (-114 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Many of us thought that Justin Herbert would take more shots downfield, with Kellen Moore replacing Joe Lombardi as Chargers offensive coordinator.

That didn't happen in Week 1 against the Dolphins. Last year, at 6.9 yards per attempt, Herbert was 35th out of 36 passers in Average Depth of Target (aDOT). In Week 1, his aDOT was a paltry 4.1 yards, and that was on a day when Los Angeles scored 34 points. Herbert ended up throwing for 228 yards on 33 attempts last week.

I have Herbert projected for somewhere in the 260-passing yards range. Add in the fact that the Titans have a very good pass rush, which flustered Derek Carr last week, and this has the makings of another under for Herbert.

C.J. Stroud Over 11.5 Rushing Yards (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

C.J. Stroud and the Texans take on the Colts on Sunday. The rookie QB had four carries for 20 yards with a long of 11 in his debut against the Ravens. The Colts just gave up 21 yards on the ground to Trevor Lawrence.

Houston struggled to protect Stroud, who was sacked five times against the Ravens. While the Colts defense isn't exactly known for its pass rush, the Texans’ offensive line is a work in progress and I think the Texans’ rookie QB will run to avoid pressure.

Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik said that in his first NFL game, Stroud "has more athleticism than a lot of people gave him credit for." Slowik went on to say that the Texans’ identity is to run the ball. And while that might mean Dameon Pierce will carry the rock more than last week, I expect Stroud to be on the move, as well.

My algorithm has him rushing for 27 yards, although I think that's a tad too high. Stroud should slam through this number.

David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

David Montgomery draws a matchup with a Seattle defense that just allowed the Rams to rush for three touchdowns. Montgomery had multiple red zone rushes in the season-opener in Kansas City, including an eight-yard touchdown scamper.

While Jahmyr Gibbs will be involved in the rushing attack, Montgomery looks to be the lead dog for Detroit. He had 21 touches, out-snapped Gibbs 55-17 and his blocking prowess will continue to keep him on the field, at least early in the season.