The 2025 NFL season rolls on with a full Week 3 slate. After the Dolphins and Bills kicked things off on Thursday, it’s time to get ready for the rest of the week’s NFL action. Tracking how much betting lines move during an NFL week can provide useful information to us bettors. As sportsbooks collect more information and public or sharp money flows in, lines take more shape.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line. Let’s take a look at how the spreads and totals have moved for every remaining NFL game this week.
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NFL Week 3 Line Movement Analysis
The table below summarizes the home team spread and game total movement for this week’s NFL games. Below, we’ll break down some of the more significant line movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| CIN | MIN | -4.5 | -3 | 1.5 | 44.5 | 42.5 | -2 |
| LAR | PHI | -4.5 | -3.5 | 1 | 45.5 | 44.5 | -1 |
| PIT | NE | 1.5 | 1.5 | - | 43.5 | 44.5 | 1 |
| NYJ | TB | -7 | -7 | - | 45 | 43.5 | -1.5 |
| IND | TEN | 3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 | - |
| LVR | WSH | -6.5 | -3.5 | 3 | 47.5 | 44 | -3.5 |
| HOU | JAC | -1 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 44 | 44 | - |
| ATL | CAR | 3.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 44.5 | 43.5 | -1 |
| GB | CLE | -7.5 | -8.5 | 1 | 42.5 | 41.5 | -1 |
| DEN | LAC | -2.5 | -2.5 | - | 45.5 | 46 | 0.5 |
| NO | SEA | -7 | -7.5 | -0.5 | 42 | 41.5 | -0.5 |
| ARI | SF | -1 | -3 | -2 | 43.5 | 46.5 | 3 |
| DAL | CHI | -1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 48.5 | 50.5 | 2 |
| KC | NYG | 6 | 6 | - | 42.5 | 45.5 | 3 |
| DET | BAL | -5.5 | -4.5 | 1 | 51 | 53.5 | 2.5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Opening odds from 9/14 | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings
- Spread Movement: MIN -4.5 to MIN -3
- Total Movement: 44.5 to 42.5
Both the Bengals and Vikings will start backup quarterbacks for this Week 3 matchup. It'll be Jake Browning for Cincinnati with Joe Burrow sidelined with his toe injury. As for Minnesota, it's Carson Wentz under center as J.J. McCarthy sits with an ankle injury.
As a result, this game has seen notable line movement on both the total and spread this week. The Vikings are now favored by just three points at home after previously being 4.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the total has dropped to 42.5, and it may even fall further by Sunday's kickoff.
Browning and Wentz aren't your typical backups without previous experience. Browning started seven times in Burrow's absence in 2023 and put up some good performances. Wentz has 94 career starts under his belt, though he's only started eight games since the 2021 season.
Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders
- Spread Movement: WSH -6.5 to WSH -3.5
- Total Movement: 47.5 to 44
How about another quarterback injury? Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has missed practice this week with a sprained knee suffered in last Thursday night's loss to Green Bay. He's questionable to play and appears in real danger of missing this game. It would leave Marcus Mariota as Washington's starter under center.
Predictably, the spread has moved significantly towards the Raiders' direction. The Commanders are now just 3.5-point home favorites after giving nearly a full touchdown earlier this week. The total has also dropped three full points amid the Daniels injury situation.
As tempting as it may be to follow the line movement, the Raiders are in a tough spot this week. Las Vegas has to travel across the country and play on short rest after losing to the Chargers on Monday night. Plus, Geno Smith and the offense struggled mightily last game. Yet, the Washington offense may have issues overcoming Daniels’ absence.
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears
- Spread Movement: CHI -1.5 to DAL -1.5
A week ago, the Eagles flipped from being underdogs to favorites on the road at Kansas City. That proved to be a bit of foreshadowing as Philly took the win. In Week 3, we have another spread flip as Dallas is now favored on the road over Chicago.
It appears enough early-week money has come in on the Cowboys to move this line. It's also likely a response to the Bears losing by 31 points to Detroit last week. Chicago also blew a double-digit second-half lead in Week 1, allowing the Vikings to score 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.
As for Dallas, a letdown on the road is certainly possible after pulling off a dramatic overtime win against a division rival last Sunday. The Cowboys' defense has left a lot to be desired, especially after allowing 37 points and 506 total yards to the Giants. Can Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams get the offense going, though?
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
- Spread Movement: SF -1 to SF -3
- Total Movement: 43.5 to 46.5
Another game where we've seen the total and spread both shift with quarterback injury news. Brock Purdy returned to practice this week, and it looks like the arrow is pointing up in terms of his availability for Sunday. That's resulted in the total rising two points and the 49ers becoming slightly bigger home favorites.
The San Francisco offense was fine last week with Mac Jones at quarterback, but it also came against the lowly Saints. Getting Purdy back for this week's divisional matchup against Arizona could be clutch. It should at least boost the offense.
As for the Cardinals, a 2-0 start to the season is nice. Yet, those victories were both one-score results over the Saints and Panthers. The Arizona defense also just allowed 352 total yards and 26 first downs to Carolina last week. That shaky defensive effort, along with Purdy’s possible return for San Fran, helps explain the total rise.
