I won't waste much time with a flowery introduction before digging into this week's plays, but I do want to say a quick word about the framework of this weekly BettingPros feature.
We have a large variety of player props to choose from every week. A lot of people love touchdown props. (Heck, who doesn't?) For yardage props, a lot of the online sportsbooks let you scale yardage totals to a number you like at odds you like. If you think Derrick Henry is really going to rock the Cowboys this week, you can get +400 odds on him to run for 100 or more yards, +600 on him to run for 110 or more yards, or +900 for him to run for 120 or more yards.
But for this weekly article, I'll stick to the yardage totals set by the sportsbooks. Will a player finish over or under a particular number of yards? That's my player-prop wheelhouse, and hopefully you find value in my hunt for lines that can be exploited.
Before we start, a quick recap of Week 2 …
The wins: Jayden Daniels over 195.5 passing yards, Derrick Henry over 72.5 rushing yards, J.K. Dobbins over 55.5 rushing yards, Brock Bowers over 34.5 receiving yards, Allen Lazard under 37.5 receiving yards, Brian Thomas over 37.5 receiving yards, Malik Nabers over 66.5 receiving yards
The losses: Jalen Hurts under 35.5 rushing yards, Calvin Ridley under 45.5 receiving yards, Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 42.5 receiving yards, Jerry Jeudy under 43.5 receiving yards, Cooper Kupp over 85.5 receiving yards
Fitz’s Favorite Week 3 Player Prop Bets
- Last week: 7-5
- Season record: 14-9
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday, Sept. 19.
Derek Carr OVER 240.5 passing yards
Carr is averaging 221.5 passing yards through the first two weeks, but only because the Saints have been trucking opponents so badly that they've been able to take their foot off the gas pedal and stop throwing in the latter part of games. Carr has thrown only 39 passes, but he's been fantastic in the offense of the new Saints offensive coordinator, Klink Kubiak. The veteran QB is completing 76.9% of his throws and averaging 11.4 yards per pass attempt.
Carr has a great matchup against an Eagles pass defense that struggled badly down the stretch last season and doesn't appear to have been fully repaired. The Philly pass defense ranks 25th in DVOA and just let Kirk Cousins and the Falcons quickly pass their way downfield for the game-winning touchdown on Monday night. Carr should cruise past this number.
Gardner Minshew OVER 217.5 passing yards
This bet wouldn't have been attractive if Bryce Young were still quarterbacking the Panthers. Carolina was struggling to put points on the board with Young at the helm, so the Raiders might have been able to lean on their running game in the second half. Veteran Andy Dalton should be able to give the Panthers' offense a little bit of life, preventing the Raiders' offense from going into a shell.
Minshew has thrown for 257 and 276 yards in his first two games with the Raiders, averaging 35.5 pass attempts per game. He has a terrific pair of weapons in WR Davante Adams and rookie TE Brock Bowers. Bet on the mustachioed Minshew to clear this low bar.
Josh Jacobs OVER 75.5 rushing yards
QB Jordan Love has been practicing with the Packers this week after spraining his MCL in Week 1. The guess here is that we don't see Love back in action until Week 4. The Packers are one of the more cautious teams in the league when it comes to bringing back injured players, and I expect them to exercise an abundance of caution with their franchise quarterback. Last week, with Love out and backup Malik Willis quarterbacking the Packers, Jacobs had 32 carries for 151 yards against the Colts.
Expect Green Bay to be extremely run-heavy again if Love is out, and while the Titans are better against the run than the Colts are, Jacobs should have no trouble clearing this number if he gets more than 20 carries. Even if Love ends up playing, this is still a solid bet. With Love under center in Week 1, Jacobs had 16 carries for 84 yards against the Eagles.
Ty Chandler UNDER 35.5 rushing yards
Chandler looked good last week in the Vikings' 23-17 win over the 49ers, rushing 10 times for 82 yards. He was less effective against the Giants in Week 1, with eight carries for 17 yards.
Chandler is still the clear No. 2 in the Minnesota backfield behind starter Aaron Jones, and Chandler has been limited to 19 snaps in each of his first two games. The Vikings will be up against a nasty Texans defense that held the Colts' Jonathan Taylor to 48 rushing yards on 16 carries in Week 1, then limited the Bears' D'Andre Swift to 18 yards on 14 carries in Week 2.
This number seems aspirational based on Chandler's good showing last Sunday. Bet the under.
Kyren Williams UNDER 64.5 rushing yards
A rushing total this low would have been child's play for Williams last year. This year is a different story.
The Rams' offensive line has been decimated by injuries. WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are hurt, too, drastically diminishing what had been a dangerous offense. The Rams haven’t been working their featured running back as hard as they did last season. Williams had 18 carries for 50 yards in Week 1 and 12 carries for 25 yards in Week 2. Behind a patchwork offensive line, Williams is averaging only 2.5 yards per carry.
The Rams aren't likely to be in a run-friendly game script this week as 6.5-point underdogs to the 49ers. A rushing total that would have seemed small for Williams last season now looks way too tall.
Derrick Henry OVER 65.5 rushing yards
After a sluggish Week 1 against the Chiefs, Henry got back on track last week with 18 carries for 84 yards vs. the Ravens. This week, he faces a Dallas run defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the run after Alvin Kamara trampled the Cowboys for 115 rushing yards and three touchdowns last week. I think Henry tops this number handily.
Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 53.5 rushing yards
After rushing for only 40 yards in Week 1 against a stingy Buccaneers run defense, Robinson rolled up 133 rushing yards against the Giants last week on 17 carries.
Robinson has become a fine running back, and because defenses must also honor the extraordinary running ability of the Commanders' rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, Robinson's job has become a little easier. I think he'll easily clear this number Monday night against a Bengals defense that gave up 120 rushing yards to the Patriots' Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 1.
Cade Otton UNDER 21.5 receiving yards
It doesn't appear that Otton will be playing a big role in Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen's system. Otton has drawn two targets in each of the Buccaneers' first two games and has one catch for five yards.
Otton has been a remarkably inefficient pass catcher during his short career, averaging 6.3 yards per target and 0.87 yards per route run. The under is a solid percentage play here.
Ladd McConkey OVER 35.5 receiving yards
McConkey draws a Week 3 matchup with the Steelers, who had trouble covering slot receivers last season. Pittsburgh is going to put its young lockdown cornerback, Joey Porter Jr., on Chargers receiver Quentin Johnston. McConkey will draw coverage from Steelers slot corner Beanie Bishop Jr., who has allowed an 88% catch rate and 1.48 yards per route run into his coverage. PFF currently has Bishop graded 86th among the 96 cornerbacks it has assigned grades. Smash the over.
Brock Bowers OVER 47.5 receiving yards
It won't be long before we start seeing Bowers' yardage totals set in the 50s or even the 60s. In his first two games, his stat lines have been 6-58-0 on eight targets and 9-98-0 on nine targets.
This kid is a monster. Keep smashing the overs on Bowers' yardage totals until the sportsbooks adjust.
