The NFL is a bettor’s dream, offering a boatload of wagering options. One of the best betting markets is the NFL Week 4 player prop bet market. They are an opportunity to bet on a player’s stats, such as passing yards, rushing yards, receptions, or touchdowns. They have perfect crossover appeal for fantasy sports gamers dipping their toes into the betting world. Savvy gamblers wisely check many books for the best prop odds, and the following suggestions are my favorite props after scanning multiple sportsbooks.
So, let’s look at some NFL Week 4 player prop bets.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Breece Hall Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The tide might be shifting in the Jets’ backfield. According to FantasyPros, Breece Hall played 51% of New York’s snaps in Week 3, and Michael Carter was behind him at a 49% snap share.
In addition, Hall has been highly efficient on the ground. He’s averaged an eye-catching 5.3 yards per carry while rumbling for 112 yards on only 21 carries. Additionally, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hall is seventh out of 51 running backs with at least 15 rush attempts this year with 4.00 Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A).
Hall has also had four runs for 10-plus yards on his modest workload. And even in a part-time role, he’s had more than 38.5 rushing yards in his last two games, rushing for 50 in Week 2 and 39 in Week 3. So, if Hall’s role doesn’t change, he can go over his yardage prop. And if he steals more work from Carter, he should obliterate his prop.
The matchup is also ideal this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers are 17th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). PFF also ranks Pittsburgh 16th in rush defense. In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Steelers have yielded the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs this year.
The game script should also help Hall and Gang Green’s rushing attack. The Steelers are only 3.5-point favorites. So, the game should be close and in a neutral game script, allowing the Jets to pound the rock to their heart’s content. Finally, FantasyPros projects Hall to run for 44.0 yards, putting him over his line of 38.5 yards.
Rashaad Penny Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Unfortunately, Penny hasn’t carried his moment from an explosive finish to 2021 to 2022. Still, he’s healthy, heading Seattle’s backfield and has a mouthwatering matchup this week.
Kenneth Walker made his debut in Week 2, but Penny sits atop the depth chart. Penny has handled 20 of 33 backfield carries in the last two weeks. Penny also played a whopping 69% of Seattle’s snaps last week in a competitive game.
Further, the Seahawks played faster and ran more plays last week, allowing Penny to rush for 66 yards on 14 attempts. Again, the newfound pace is excellent for Penny’s outlook this week. And again, the matchup is superb.
The Lions are 24th in rush defense DVOA and 30th in PFF run-defense grade. Detroit has also been gashed for 4.56 yards per carry by running backs this season. Additionally, the Lions are only 3.5-point favorites. Further, they might struggle mightily on offense without Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. So, the Seahawks should be in a neutral or good game script this week, allowing them to feed Penny.
The FantasyPros projection algorithm is encouraged by Penny’s outlook, projecting him for 66.7 rushing yards. So, gamblers should feel good about betting on Penny to rush for more than 60.5 yards against the Lions this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.