It’s Week 5 of the 2025 National Football League (NFL) regular season, and the bye weeks start to kick in. The Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers are off this week. That’s a shame, too, as the Bears and Steelers have been a constant source of Over results, going high at a 3-1 clip this season, while the Falcons and Packers have been a dependable source of Under results at 3-1 each.
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Best NFL Week 5 Totals Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Line Movements & Public Leans
Listed are some of the largest line movements for Week 5 from opening to time of publishing:
- Vikings vs. Browns (London): 41.5 to 36.5
- Cowboys at Jets: 44.5 to 47.5
- Raiders at Colts: 44.5 to 47.5
- Broncos at Eagles: 45.5 to 43.5
- Dolphins at Panthers: 46.5 to 44.5
- Texans at Ravens: 47.5 to 40.5
- Titans at Cardinals: 46.5 to 42.5
- Patriots at Bills (SNF): 46.5 to 48.5
Stats & More
The Buffalo Bills rank No. 1 in passing defense, allowing just 564 passing yards per game through four outings, and they’re one of six teams yet to allow a passing play of 40 or more yards. On the flip side, the Dallas Cowboys are dead-last in the NFL with 1,237 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and just one interception, while allowing 17 pass plays of 20+ yards. They’ve also allowed seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the next worst team (Commanders) have five. The worst teams in the AFC, in terms of 40+ pass plays allowed, are the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders with three apiece.
The Houston Texans are 1-3 this season, but it’s no fault of the defense. Houston leads the NFL in scoring defense with just 51 points allowed, or 12.8 points per game (PPG) through four outings. The next best teams are the Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, each allowing 67 points, or 16.8 PPG. Again, on the opposite side of the coin, the Baltimore Ravens have conceded an NFL-high 133 points, or 33.3 PPG, followed closely by the Cowboys with 132 points allowed, or 33.0 PPG.
So far through four weeks, the Over-Under is 32-32 (50.0%). In divisional games, the Under has a 14-9 advantage heading into Week 5, with just two divisional games on tap. Both of those divisional matchups are in primetime, with the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams battling Thursday, and the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills meeting on Sunday Night Football at Highmark Stadium.
The Cowboys (1-2-1) and the Jets (0-4) meet at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., and an early look at the weather indicates Sunday will be a Chamber of Commerce day, with abundant sunshine and temperatures in the 70’s with a light breeze.
With such good weather conditions, look for the ball to be flying all around MetLife on Sunday. The Cowboys have surprisingly struggled on the road, averaging 17.0 PPG on offense, while going for 40.0 PPG at home. However, the defense has been terrible, regardless of venue, allowing 27.5 PPG in two games on the road, and 38.5 PPG at home.
For the Jets, they’ve cashed the Over in three of four games to date, allowing at least 27 points in every game. At home, Gang Green opened the season with a 34-32 loss to old friend Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lost starting QB Justin Fields to a concussion in Week 2, tumbling to a 30-10 loss. Still, that’s 32.0 PPG allowed on defense in two games at home. With the high-octane Dallas offense coming to town, you can expect a ton of points. Frankly, it’s surprising the total is so low. Take advantage.
Pick: Over 47.5 Points (-104)
The Giants (1-3) and Saints (0-4) meet at Caesars Superdome on Sunday. The Giants scratched out a 21-18 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 4, getting into the win column in the NFL debut of QB Jaxson Dart. For the Saints, they’re still searching for Win No. 1.
The Under is 3-1 for the G-Men so far, allowing 22 or fewer points in three of four games, save for 40-37 OT loss in a shootout in Dallas back in Week 2. The Giants rebounded with 21 points against the Bolts after just nine points in a SNF loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3.
For the Saints, they’ve struggled to score points, going for 21 or fewer points in all four games, and 13 or fewer points in two of the outings. The defense has been atrocious, though, allowing 26 or more points in each of the past three games, cashing the Over in each outing.
With this game played under the roof in NOLA, you’d think we might have end-to-end action. However, remember while the Giants won last week, they also lost superstar WR Malik Nabers to a torn ACL, and he is done for the season. The offense might also be without RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. again, as rookie RB Cam Skattebo is likely forced to do most of the heavy lifting. It could be a slow go for the Giants on offense, despite the giving ways of the Saints. Additionally, New Orleans should struggle to put up points on Big Blue. It’s a low number, but a 20-13 kind of game wouldn’t be surprising in the least.
Pick: Under 41.5 Points (-102)
On Monday Night Football, the Chiefs (2-2) and Jaguars (3-1) meet at EverBank Stadium for a surprising AFC clash. There aren’t many people who would have predicted that the Jaguars would have a better record than the Chiefs going into Week 5.
The Chiefs have had surprising struggles on offense, going for 22 or fewer points in three of the first four games. Kansas City got well against Baltimore last week, posting a 37-20 win, but the Ravens have been terrible defensively, so the jury is still out on the KC offense.
The defense has allowed 20 or fewer points in three straight outings, including two games against the Ravens and defending Super Bowl champion Eagles.
For the Jaguars, they’ve allowed just 10.0 PPG in two games at home, although that was against the Panthers and Texans, two teams with a combined 2-6 record. Still, they’ve allowed 21 or fewer points in three of the four games overall.
We could see more field-goal opportunities than touchdowns in this primetime game. Kansas City just hasn’t been firing on all cylinders offensively, and Jacksonville’s offense could have some issues against the Chiefs, who have been decent.
Pick: Under 46.5 Points (-120)
We hit our 3-team, 6-point teaser last week, as the Texans shut out the Titans 26-0 with a total of 44.5. Dart’s Giants edged the Chargers 21-18 with plenty of room to spare on a total of 49.5. And, in Las Vegas, we needed the points, as the Bears nipped the Raiders 25-24 for an Over (47.5) on the total, but an Under (53.5) on the teaser total. Let’s do it again in Week 5. As my good friend Chris David would say back in the day at VegasInsider.com, Press, Pass or Fade, but in the end — Good Luck!
Week 5 Teaser (6 Points)
- Cowboys at Jets: Over 41.5
- Giants at Saints: Under 47.5
- Chiefs at Jaguars: Under 52.5
