It’s Week 6 of the 2025 National Football League (NFL) regular season, and we have two more teams on a bye this week. The Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings are off in Week 6. The Sunday schedule kicks off with another overseas game, too, as the Denver Broncos and New York Jets meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Let’s build our bankroll with our best NFL Week 6 totals picks.
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Best NFL Week 6 Totals Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Line Movements & Public Leans
Listed are some of the largest line movements for Week 5 from opening to time of publishing:
- Broncos vs. Jets (London): 41.5 to 44
- Browns at Steelers: 42.5 to 37.5
- Rams at Ravens: 48.5 to 44.5
- Cowboys at Panthers: 46.5 to 49.5
- Chargers at Dolphins: 45.5 to 43.5
- Panthers at Saints: 43.5 to 46
- Titans at Raiders: 44.5 to 41
- Bengals at Packers: 48.5 to 44.5
- Lions at Chiefs (SNF): 48.5 to 53
Stats & More
The Baltimore Ravens are in action against the Los Angeles Rams, and they made some moves to shore up the defense this week, acquiring safety Alohi Gilman from the Los Angeles Chargers, as well as defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson, after his release from the Houston Texans. Will the reinforcements in the secondary help this defense, though? Baltimore is the only team in the NFL to play five games and cash the over all five times. They’re averaging 28.2 points per game (PPG) on offense, while allowing 35.4 PPG, including a 44-10 beatdown at the hands of the aforementioned Texans in Week 5.
Speaking of the Texans, they’re 2-3, and on a bye this week, so we won’t spend a lot of time on them. But, they’ve allowed 20 or fewer points in all five games, with an NFL-best 12.2 PPG allowed, while yielding just 265.8 total yards per game. They’re sixth in both passing yards (175.2) and rushing yards allowed (90.6) per game, too. Now, if they could just find an offensive line to block for quarterback C.J. Stroud, giving him more than a nanosecond to pass.
The over was 9-5 last week, with four teams on a bye. On the season, the total has gone high at a 41-37 (52.6%) clip. We had just three divisional games in Week 5, with the over going 2-1. The under is holding steady at 15-11 (57.7%) in divisional games, so keep that in mind going forward, although we have just one divisional game (Browns-Steelers) on Sunday.
The Cardinals (2-3) and Colts (4-1) meet in the ‘almost-had-a-touchdown-but-dropped-the-ball-before-crossing-the-goal-line’ bowl. OK, that’s too wordy, but you get the point.
In Week 4, Colts receiver Adonai Mitchell had what looked like a long touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams. However, just before crossing the goal line, he lost the ball, and a touchback was awarded to the Rams. That was costly, as the Colts lost 27-20. Under (50) bettors didn’t really mind, though, as it helped keep the total just below the number.
In Week 5, Cardinals back Emari Demercado had what should have been a long scoring run, and an exclamation point in a rout of the Tennessee Titans. Instead, he dropped it short of the goal line, and he got a tongue-lashing and smack from head coach Jonathan Gannon for his troubles, too. The Cardinals went from leading 21-6, and potentially 28-6, to losing 22-21, as the Titans mounted a huge comeback. Was it all Demercado’s fault? No. But that play shifted the tide dramatically. The total still went over (41.5) in that game, despite his unforced miscue.
The Cardinals have cashed low in three out of five games to date, including both previous games on the road. The Colts have a 3-2 edge to the under through five games, with a 2-1 mark at home. They’ve allowed eight or fewer points in two of those wins at home, too.
Look for the Colts’ defense to keep the Cardinals down. With two previous totals of 46.5 at home, the Colts have gone low. Let’s make it 3-for-3.
Pick: Under 46.5 Points (-110)
The Rams (3-2) and the Ravens (1-4) meet at M&T Bank Stadium, and it appears quarterback Lamar Jackson is going to sit out for a second straight game due to a hamstring injury. It only makes sense, too. Why risk aggravating the injury with a bye coming up in Week 7? Another game off will give the MVP candidate two more weeks to rest and get ready for Week 8, as Baltimore looks to dig itself out of an early-season hole.
The Rams have cashed high in three of the past four games, aided by an overtime loss against the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night in Week 5. The Rams have scored 23+ points in each of the past three games, while allowing at least 19 points in each of the past four outings.
Going from the Pacific Time Zone to the Eastern Time Zone, the Rams have cashed the over once, in Week 3 in Philadelphia, and the over is 2-0 for the Rams going east of the Mississippi River.
For the Ravens, they’re the only team to cash high in all five games this season. All other NFL teams have at least one under result. The defense has been abysmal in Charm City, allowing at least 37 points in three in a row and four out of five games to date. Only the toothless Browns offense was held in check by Baltimore in a 41-17 win by the Ravens, their only successful outing of the season.
We’ll keep going high until the Ravens prove they can stop somebody, or at least slow them down.
Pick: Over 44.5 Points (-115)
The bumbling Bengals (2-3) head to Lambeau Field to meet the Packers (2-1-1), who are rested and raring to go after a bye in Week 5. That doesn’t bode well for the Bengals.
Cincinnati turns to newly acquired veteran quarterback Joe Flacco to start Week 6. It isn’t often you get to face the same team twice within the span of three weeks, especially for two different organizations. Flacco led the Browns to their only win of the season, a 13-10 victory over the Packers in Cleveland in Week 3, as the under (41) cashed. The under has hit in three out of four games for Green Bay, save for its wild 40-40 tie in Dallas in Week 4 on Sunday Night Football.
For the Bengals, the over is 3-1 in the past four games, but the offense has been moribund. They’ve managed just 37 points in the past three weekends, with 24 points coming last week in Detroit, a 37-24 loss. Jake Browning had three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter after the Bengals were down 28-3, and the Lions were not as hungry as they were earlier in the game.
Expect there to be a learning curve for Flacco. Even a veteran can struggle to learn a new playbook, especially in a matter of a few days. Cincinnati’s offense will be watered down significantly, and the Packers are going to throw everything and the kitchen sink at Flacco, forcing running back Chase Brown to beat them on the ground. He has done a very mediocre job in the run game, and it isn’t about to get better this week.
Pick: Under 44.5 Points (-118)
Week 6 Teaser (6 Points)
- Cardinals at Colts: Under 52.5 Points
- Rams at Ravens: Over 38.5 Points
- Bengals at Packers: Under 50.5 Points
We nearly cashed our 6-point teaser for the second consecutive weekend, but the Chiefs and Jaguars had other plans for us on Monday night, delivering the loss after a pair of wins on Sunday. Let’s see if we can have a little bit of success with these three AFC versus NFC battles in Week 6. Again, as my good friend, Chris David, would say back in the day at VegasInsider.com, Press, Pass or Fade, but in the end - Good Luck.
