Week 7 was another profitable outing, getting Keenan Allen and Quinshon Judkins first team touchdowns to the window right around 2/1 odds and hitting on the red-hot Jake Ferguson to score again. If you add in the separate article that I wrote up specifically for the Jaguars-Rams London game, we cashed on Davante Adams anytime touchdown score and for him to score two or more touchdowns.
Week 8 features the return of National Tight Ends Day in the NFL, and whether it's a concerted effort or something more subconscious, we've seen tight ends have big days on their special holiday in recent years. I'm playing right into that narrative this week, with a majority of my card featuring tight ends to score with some juicy odds. Let's hope history repeats itself, and we get several of the big guys into the end zone this week. Check out my top NFL Week 8 anytime touchdown scorer picks below.
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Best NFL Week 8 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons
Darnell Mooney (WR – ATL) | +330
One of the few non-tight ends on my card this week is Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney, who many might forget is only one season removed from recording nearly 1,000 receiving yards and a career-high five touchdowns. Mooney's season has been severely limited with a hamstring injury, as he's only suited up for four games and really only been a participant in two, but he looked to finally be fully healthy in Atlanta's Sunday night contest in San Francisco.
Mooney returned to form as the Falcons’ deep threat in that contest, reeling in a 38-yard pass and coming up just shy on what would have been another really spectacular deep ball from Michael Penix Jr. The Dolphins are in complete disarray, and their defense has been abysmal, conceding the fourth-most points in the NFL at nearly 30 points per game. Penix and the Falcons have also been much better at home this year, putting up 26 points per game as opposed to just 10.7 points per game on the road. I think the Falcons are going to put up plenty of points against the Dolphins this Sunday, and with their other primary offensive options out of range in terms of odds that I want to play, I'll take a shot on Mooney to find the end zone for his first touchdown of the season.
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals
Mason Taylor (TE – NYJ) | +260
Jets tight end Mason Taylor has been finding his footing recently, garnering at least five targets and four receptions in four of his last five games, including two games of five or more receptions for 65+ yards. It looks like Tyrod Taylor is set to start under center for the Jets this week, and star wideout Garrett Wilson is likely to be out again, raising both Taylor’s ceiling and floor. Taylor and the Jets have an outstanding matchup this week against a Bengals defense ranked in the bottom three in points and passing yards allowed per game, as well as total passing yards.
They've also been the league's worst defense in terms of defending the tight end position, allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, including a league-leading nine receiving touchdowns allowed to tight ends. Tyrod Taylor's two passing touchdowns in his lone start against the Buccaneers this year are tied for the most in any Justin Fields-started game this season, in a game where he targeted Taylor six times. With Wilson and running back Braelon Allen on the sidelines, that leaves Taylor as the Jets’ leader in terms of red-zone targets on the season. I like him to cash in for his first career NFL touchdown on National Tight Ends Day.
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Colston Loveland (TE – CHI) | +260
With tight end Cole Kmet unlikely to suit up for the Bears this Sunday due to a herniated disc in his back, the door is wide open for Bears first-round draft pick Colston Loveland to have a breakout game. Loveland hasn't necessarily had the start to his career that many imagined, but there's a lot of reason to believe he could have a huge Week 8. For starters, the Ravens’ defense has been putrid this season, ranking in the bottom five in both passing yards and total yards per game, and giving up the most points per game in the NFL. The Ravens’ defense has been vulnerable to tight ends as well, currently conceding the sixth-most receptions per game and yards per game to the position. They also rank in the bottom half of the NFL in fantasy points allowed per game to the tight end position.
The Bears’ offense has been firing on all cylinders recently, putting up 26.8 points per game during their four-game winning streak as they become more and more comfortable with Johnson's offensive game plan. It's only a matter of time before the Bears start to weaponize Loveland, similar to the ways Sam LaPorta and T.J. Hockenson were used in Detroit. With Loveland set to absorb all of the snaps and targets from Kmet this week against the NFL's worst scoring defense, I think he could be in for a coming-out party. Give me Loveland to find the end zone for his first career NFL touchdown.
Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF) | +210
It looks like Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid will be able to go this week against the Panthers, after missing Buffalo's Week 6 matchup against the Falcons and getting an additional week to rest with the team on a bye in Week 7. That's really bad news for a Panthers defense that has been victimized by the tight end position this season, currently surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per game and yards per game to tight ends. They are tied for the fourth-most touchdowns allowed to tight ends as well. Kincaid has been effective in games he's suited up for this reason, recording six or more targets and a score in 60% of his games in a Bills offense that is extremely hard to predict on any given week.
Kincaid has also been very explosive for a tight end, averaging 14.4 yards per catch and recording a reception of 18+ yards in all five games he has played. Should Kincaid miss this game, I love Dalton Knox to slide in and score right in his place, just as he did against Atlanta in Week 6. Whoever gets the bulk of the work for Buffalo from the tight end position will have a big day against Carolina on Sunday, and I'm banking on that being Kincaid in his return to action.
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans
George Kittle (TE – SF) | +185
This play might come as a little bit of a surprise, as 49ers tight end George Kittle recorded exactly zero catches in his return to action on Sunday Night Football in Week 7, but that doesn't worry me one bit. Kittle was much more of a factor in the run game, as the 49ers ran roughshod over the Falcons’ defense for 174 yards (4.5 yards per carry). Things will likely not come as easily on the ground this week, as the 49ers are underdogs against a top-10 Texans rushing defense, which is allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game. With the health status of the San Francisco wide receiver corps still up in the air with the injuries to Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk, Kittle still figures to be the most reliable pass-catching option in the red zone.
Kittle scored in their opener before getting hurt, and he should be much more involved in the passing game this week against a really stout Texans run defense. Kittle has become such an integral part of establishing the Tight End University. There's no more fitting time for him to find the end zone than on National Tight Ends Day. I'll play him every single time at nearly 2/1 odds, especially on his holiday.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Theo Johnson (TE – NYG) | +380
Giants tight end Theo Johnson found his way back into the end zone against a very good Broncos defense in Week 7, making that four scores in his last four games, all of which were started by the Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart. It hasn't been fluky either, as the target share has been sustainable with four or more targets in each of those games and seven targets in two out of the four contests. They've been high-leverage targets as well, as Johnson's eight red-zone targets and four targets inside the 10-yard line both rank tied for the 11th-most in the NFL and make up 30% of targets to all Giants pass-catchers.
Those numbers are also skewed on the low end due to the early-season starts by Russell Wilson and the targets that went to Malik Nabers pre-injury. Johnson should be much more involved in the offensive game plan against the Eagles this time around, as the Giants are sizable underdogs and will likely not have such a favorable game script that allows them to lean as heavily as they did on Cam Skattebo the last time they met in Week 6. Johnson has proven himself to be the go-to target for Dart around the goal line. These odds are flat-out ridiculous for a pass-catcher averaging a touchdown per game for four straight games. Give me Johnson to score again at nearly 4/1 odds.
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots
I wrote up Patriots tight end Hunter Henry to score last week and was pretty disappointed to see fellow tight end Austin Hooper reel in a touchdown catch, but that's not stopping me from going back to the well on Henry this week. Henry's seven red-zone targets lead the Patriots and comprise nearly 30% of targets to all Patriots pass-catchers. His five targets inside the 10-yard line are tied for the eighth-most and make up 37% of those targets to all Patriots receiving options.
While the Browns have quietly been one of the NFL's most underrated defenses, they have been slightly susceptible to tight ends compared to other positions, ranking in the bottom half of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed per game to the position. The four touchdowns they have allowed to tight ends are tied for the fourth-most in the NFL. Also, whether a coincidence or not, all of Henry's touchdowns have come in the friendly confines of Foxborough, which is where this week's game will be played. Give me Hunter Henry as my final tight end to find paydirt on National Tight Ends Day.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Rookie receiver Tez Johnson has suddenly become a critical piece of a Buccaneers offense that has been ravaged by injuries to receivers Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka and running back Bucky Irving. Johnson has seen three or more targets and 45+ yards in three consecutive games. He has scored in two consecutive games. The Bucs figure to have a pretty favorable offensive matchup against a Saints defense surrendering the sixth-most points per game in the NFL. Johnson, in particular, should get some looks against a defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers and that is tied for conceding the eighth-most touchdowns to wideouts this season.
While the Bucs are certainly favored in this game, I think it might be a tighter game than many expect, and they can't afford to take their foot off the accelerator because of the multitude of injuries they're dealing with. While Egbuka will likely play, he didn't seem to be his same explosive self in Monday Night's game against Detroit, and Johnson's nine targets in that game tell me he'll likely receive a high volume of targets this week as well. These odds are just too long for someone who could easily lead Tampa Bay in targets this Sunday. I'll take Johnson to stay hot and score again against the Saints.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones (QB – IND) | +230
A couple of weeks ago, I said that I would consider Daniel Jones anytime his odds get north of 2/1, and I'm staying true to that this week. Jones actually totaled his best day on the ground against this same Titans defense he'll see on Sunday, running for 27 yards (6.8 yards per carry) with a long of 17 yards, all of which are season-high marks for Jones. The Titans have been gashed on the ground in general this season, surrendering the fourth-most rushing yards per game and allowing a league-high 12 rushing scores on the year.
Despite the incredible year that Jonathan Taylor is having, Jones is still responsible for 18% of all Colts red-zone rushes and 22% of all Colts carries inside both the 10-yard line and 5-yard line. The Colts figure to have a run-heavy game script on tap for a game they're 14-point home favorites. I expect them to have plenty of opportunities around the goal line. At -400 odds, Taylor is absolutely unplayable, but I'll take a shot on Jones (who has scored both times I've written him up this season) to snipe one of Taylor's touchdowns this Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN) | +130
Despite it being National Tight Ends Day, Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton is absolutely my favorite pick of the week to score. Sutton has scored in three out of seven games for the Broncos this season, and draws an A+ matchup against a Cowboys defense allowing the third-most points in the NFL and ranks dead-last in both total yardage and passing yards allowed per game. They've been especially bad against opposing wideouts, ranking fourth-worst in yards allowed per game to the position. They are also allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, including a league-leading 12 touchdowns.
While Troy Franklin sneakily leads the Broncos in red-zone targets, Sutton has received 20% of all targets inside the 10-yard line in a pretty diverse Denver offense and has also proven to be much more of a deep threat, with receptions of 22+ yards in five games, including two games with receptions of 32+ yards and one reception of 52 yards. I think Sutton should be much closer to even odds against this brutally bad Dallas defense, so anything at plus-money odds is a play for me. I don't hate a sprinkle on Sutton to score two or more touchdowns either, as the Cowboys have allowed multiple receiving scores in one game to Tetairoa McMillan, Romeo Doubs and Malik Nabers this season.
