NFL Wild Card PrizePicks Player Predictions (Saturday)

The first day of Wild Card Weekend features two regular season rematches. First, the Houston Texans will look to avenge a 36-22 loss to the Cleveland Browns. In the first meeting between the two teams, CJ Stroud did not play. Then, the Miami Dolphins will attempt to upset the Kansas City Chiefs after losing 21-14 to them in Germany earlier this year.

Here are the best PrizePicks plays for the Saturday Wild Card NFL playoff games.

Check out all of our predictions using our PrizePicks cheat sheet >>

Here are the best PrizePicks plays for the Saturday Wild Card NFL playoff games.

Check out all of our predictions using our PrizePicks cheat sheet >>

Best NFL Sunday Night Football PrizePicks Player Predictions

CJ Stroud Under 242.5 passing yards

Despite missing two full games, Stroud ended his rookie year as the league's eighth-leading passer. Yet, he struggled against solid pass defenses this season. Though the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers had problems, they finished the year ranked second and third in pass yards allowed per game. In two games against those teams, Stroud was 26-of-47 for 231 yards and zero touchdowns.

The only team in the league with a better pass defense than the Jets or Panthers is the Browns. And, while you could argue that the numbers against the Jets and Panthers were inflated because teams were always winning against them, thus more inclined to run the ball, the same can't be said of the Browns. The Browns’ defense really is as good as their statistics say. As great as Stroud has been this season, he will fail to throw for 240 yards on Saturday.

Travis Kelce Under 58.5 receiving yards

Kelce's 2023 season was a disappointment. He scored just five touchdowns and finished with only two 100-yard games. Over his past eight games, he's recorded fewer than 50 yards five times, and he hasn't caught more than seven passes in a game since Week 7.

When the Chiefs and Dolphins met for the first time in Week 9, the Dolphins held Kelce to three catches for just 14 yards. We expect the Dolphins to take a similar defensive approach on Saturday, double-teaming Kelce and forcing another Chiefs player to beat them.

But even if the Dolphins fail in their defensive scheme against Kelce, this is too many yards. Kelce hasn't topped 58 yards since Week 14. With sub-zero temperatures and winds over 15 miles per hour expected for Saturday night's game, Kelce probably won't even come close to this total.

Jerome Ford Over 43.5 rushing yards

This is a fishy line. When these two teams met earlier this season, Ford ran the ball 15 times for just 25 yards. That's an average of 1.7 yards per carry. He's run for 25 or fewer yards in four of his past five games. So, why is this number so high?

It seems that oddsmakers expect the Texans to take a different defensive approach in this game after they were torched for 368 yards by Joe Flacco in the first meeting. The defense neutralized the run, as they've done so many times this season, but they never had a chance to win because their pass defense was so bad. This time, the Texans will focus more on Flacco, opening up the running game for Ford and Kareem Hunt.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.