NFL Wild Card Weekend Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2024)

Here is an early look at NFL Wild Card Weekend odds and trends:

NFL Wild Card Weekend Early Odds & Trends

Browns @ Texans - Saturday, Jan. 13 - 4:30 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - CLE -2.5; O/U 44.5

Browns trends:

2-0 ATS; 1-1 to the Over in 2 Playoff games since 2021 (both as road underdogs)
Previous 5 games with rest disadvantage: 3-2 ATS
Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 7-12-1 ATS
Previous 23 games following a loss: 13-10 ATS
Previous 30 road games: 12-17-1 ATS; 19-11 to the Over
Previous 36 conference games: 16-20 ATS
Kevin Stefanski as a favorite (Career): 16-21-1 ATS

Texans trends:

5-5 ATS; 5-5 to the Over in Playoff games since 2012
4-2 ATS; 4-2 to the Under in home Playoff games since 2012
Previous 7 games with rest advantage: 3-4 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a home underdog: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 15 games following a win: 6-9 ATS
Previous 30 games: 19-11 to the Under
Previous 30 games as an underdog: 17-12-1 ATS; 17-13 to the Under
Previous 36 conference games: 20-16 ATS
CJ Stroud as an underdog (Career): 5-3 ATS
DeMeco Ryans as an underdog (Career): 6-4 ATS

Best bet: Texans +2.5

This line has taken off a bit since opening but has hit some resistance once it got to 3. I agree with that resistance, as Cleveland's defense has not been nearly as good on the road, and the Browns have struggled as road favorites in recent seasons. Though Houston is disadvantaged in terms of experience, I think three points are too many for Stroud and this offense at home. Give me the points with the Texans while this spread is still at a field goal.

Dolphins @ Chiefs - Saturday, Jan. 13 - 8:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - KC -4.0; O/U 44

Dolphins trends:

1-1 ATS; 1-1 to the Over in playoff games since 2017
Previous 10 playoff games: 8-2 to the Under
Previous 10 road games: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 3-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS
Previous 21 games following a loss: 9-11-1 ATS
Previous 37 conference games: 21-15-1 ATS
Tua Tagovailoa (Career): 29-21-1 ATS
Mike McDaniel as an underdog (Career): 5-9 ATS

Chiefs trends:

Previous 10 playoff games: 6-4 ATS; 6-4 to the Under
Previous 10 home playoff games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 30 games: 19-11 to the Under
Previous 30 home games: 12-18 ATS; 21-9 to the Under
Previous 30 games as a home favorite: 13-17 ATS; 21-9 to the Under
Previous 40 games following a win: 18-21-1 ATS
Previous 41 conference games: 17-23-1 ATS
Patrick Mahomes as a favorite (Career): 41-44-2 ATS

Best bet: Under 44

While the offensive playmakers on each team might incline you to bet the over, I would advise against that as the Chiefs have been a heavy under team in recent seasons. Add in the fact that the health of both Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle is in question. Plus, the Dolphins will be playing in freezing temperatures against a Kansas City offense that hasn't found consistency all year long. I think we have the perfect recipe for an under in this one.

Steelers @ Bills - Sunday, Jan. 14 - 1:00 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - BUF -10; O/U 36.5

Steelers trends:

Previous 9 games with rest advantage: 6-3 ATS
Previous 10 playoff games: 2-6-2 ATS
Previous 10 playoff games as an underdog: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 7-3 ATS
Previous 30 games: 19-11 ATS; 19-11 to the Under
Previous 30 games as an underdog: 17-12-1 ATS
Previous 30 road games: 17-13 ATS; 18-12 to the Under
Previous 37 conference games: 21-15-1 ATS
Mike Tomlin as an underdog (Career): 57-31-3 ATS

Bills trends:

Previous 10 playoff games: 3-7 ATS
Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 3-7 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 games with rest disadvantage: 6-4 ATS
Previous 30 home games: 16-12-2 ATS; 17-13 to the Under
Previous 36 games following a win: 16-19-1 ATS
Josh Allen (Career): 49-39-5 ATS
Sean McDermott as a favorite (Career): 38-31-4 ATS

Best bet: Bills -10

While Mike Tomlin has once again dragged the Steelers to the playoffs, I think they're going straight into a buzzsaw this weekend. Josh Allen and the Bills have been firing on all cylinders since the middle part of the season, coming back to win the division when many thought they might miss the playoffs altogether. I don't see Pittsburgh having any success on offense, and I think the Bills score enough to cover the largest spread of the weekend.

Packers @ Cowboys - Sunday, Jan. 14 - 4:30 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DAL -7.5; O/U 50.5

Packers trends:

Previous 10 playoff games: 6-4 ATS; 8-2 to the Over
Previous 10 road playoff games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 playoff games as an underdog: 6-3-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 games: 6-4 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 20 road games: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 13-7 ATS
Previous 29 games following a win: 18-11 ATS
Previous 30 games as an underdog: 19-11 ATS
Previous 37 conference games: 22-15 ATS
Jordan Love as an underdog (Career): 7-4 ATS
Matt LaFleur as an underdog (Career): 19-8 ATS

Cowboys trends:

Previous 10 playoff games: 3-7 ATS; 6-4 to the Under
Previous 10 playoff games as a favorite: 3-7 ATS
Previous 30 games: 17-13 ATS; 17-13 to the Over
Previous 30 home games: 20-10 ATS; 18-12 to the Over
Previous 30 games as a favorite: 21-9 ATS
Previous 30 games as a home favorite: 17-13 ATS; 20-10 to the Over
Previous 36 games following a win: 20-16 ATS
Previous 39 conference games: 26-13 ATS
Dak Prescott as a favorite (Career): 49-33-2 ATS
Mike McCarthy as a favorite (Career): 111-74-4 ATS

Best bet: Over 50.5

Cowboys home games have been over machines in recent years, especially when they're a decisive favorite. They'll be up against a Joe Barry-led defense that made even Bryce Young (who just got shut out in consecutive games to end the season) look like an All-Pro. I think Dallas scores at will here and expect for Jordan Love and the Packers to put up enough points of their own to push this one over the point total.

Rams @ Lions - Sunday, Jan. 14 - 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - DET -3.5; O/U 51.5

Rams trends:

Previous 10 playoff games: 5-5 ATS; 6-4 to the Under
Previous 10 games: 7-3 to the Over
Previous 10 road games: 6-3-1 ATS; 6-4 to the Over
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 6-3-1 to the Under
Previous 29 games following a win: 13-16 ATS
Matt Stafford as an underdog (Career): 44-52-3 ATS
Sean McVay as an underdog (Career): 18-14-2 ATS

Lions trends:

1-2 ATS; 2-1 to the Under in playoff games since 2012
Previous 21 games following a win: 14-7 ATS
Previous 30 games: 21-9 ATS; 17-13 to the Over
Previous 30 home games: 21-9 ATS; 19-11 to the Over
Previous 30 games as a favorite: 18-12 ATS; 20-10 to the Over
Previous 30 games as a home favorite: 18-12 ATS; 21-9 to the Over
Previous 36 conference games: 25-11 ATS
Jared Goff as a favorite (Career): 39-29-3 ATS
Dan Campbell as a favorite (Career): 14-8-1 ATS

Best bet: Rams +3.5

Detroit fans are having their worst nightmares come to life right before their eyes, with Matthew Stafford leading a red-hot Rams team into Ford Field for this Wildcard matchup. There should be a ton of offense in this game, and I expect it to come down to whoever possesses the ball last. In a game like that, I'll gladly take the points with the underdog, especially with a coach like Sean McVay, who has been there and done that many times before.

Eagles @ Buccaneers - Monday, Jan. 15 - 8:15 p.m. EST

Current Consensus Lines - PHI -3; O/U 44

Eagles trends:

Previous 10 playoff games: 7-3 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 10 road playoff games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 10 playoff games as a favorite: 8-2 to the Under
Previous 16 games following a loss: 5-11 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road favorite: 7-12-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 30 games: 12-16-2 ATS; 17-13 to the Over
Previous 30 road games: 11-18-1 ATS; 18-12 to the Under
Previous 39 conference games: 16-20-3 ATS
Nick Sirianni (Career): 22-27-2 ATS

Buccaneers trends:

Previous 9 home playoff games: 8-1 to the Under
Previous 9 playoff games as an underdog: 6-3 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 games: 12-8 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 7-12-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 30 games as a home underdog: 17-13 to the Under
Previous 30 games following a win: 16-14 ATS
Baker Mayfield (Career): 37-48-1 ATS
Todd Bowles (Career): 45-52-5 ATS

Best bet: Eagles -3

Against my better judgment, I'm going with the Eagles to cover this field goal spread as short road favorites against a Buccaneers team that did nothing more than be the best team in a horrible NFC South. Yes, the Eagles have looked like trash down the stretch, and yes, they may be dealing with multiple injuries on the offensive side of the ball. I'm simply buying the ultimate dip in their market and trusting their pedigree to find a way to win this game. Philadelphia is clearly the more talented team with a coaching advantage, which is saying something, considering how poorly Nick Sirianni has coached this year.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: