Only a handful of games remain for each team this NHL season, and naturally, the playoff race is coming down to the wire. The league rolls out a four-game schedule on Monday, with three of the four games having major playoff implications. Below, I'll dive into each of the four games from a sports betting angle, touching on the odds and breaking down where I'm laying my money on the ice tonight. Here are my top NHL picks & predictions for Monday, April 6th.
Monday’s Top NHL Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Tampa Bay Lightning (-118) vs. Buffalo Sabres (-102) | O/U 6.5 (-110/-110)
The night gets started with this whale of a matchup between the Lightning (48-22-6) and the Sabres (46-23-8), who are currently battling it out for an Atlantic Division title. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET from the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY.
It's official, the Sabres have finally snapped their 14-year playoff drought, and the organization will return to the postseason for the first time since 2011.
I'm going to sell high on Buffalo and fade them in this spot against Tampa tonight. The Lightning are picking up steam, entering the new week riding a 5-1-1 stretch of play.
Over the last 10 games, the Bolts are third in expected goal differential per 60 minutes (+0.9), while the Sabres have slid to 23rd (-0.4) in the category. Tampa has the better goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.31 GAA, .912 SV%), more elite star power and the better offensive depth. Let's back the upward-trending Lightning as short road favorites.
Bet: Lightning Moneyline (-118)
Seattle Kraken (+140) vs. Winnipeg Jets (-170) | O/U 6.0 (+100/-120)
This is the lone game on Monday that really has no impact on the postseason. Now, technically, neither the Kraken (32-32-11) nor the Jets (33-31-12) have been eliminated yet, but they're each at least six points out of a Wild Card with only a handful of games remaining. This Western Conference clash gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET from the Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg, MB.
With this total sitting at six goals, it looks like a no-brainer to lock in the under. It's confirmed that Connor Hellebuyck will tend the twine tonight, and while he hasn't been elite this season, he still owns a respectable 2.77 GAA (28th). The Jets have gone under the total in five of their last seven games, and the under is also 9-2 in their last 11 home games.
Ultimately, I just don't have confidence in either offense right now. Over the last 10 games, the Kraken are 25th in shooting rate (10.08%), while the Jets are 29th (9.92%). The teams are 29th (2.45) and 28th (2.53), respectively, in goals per 60 minutes during the same 10-game sample size. With an all-time netminder and two sluggish offenses, I think it's best to play the under in this one.
Bet: Under 6.0 Goals (-120)
Chicago Blackhawks (+140) vs. San Jose Sharks (-170) | O/U 6.5 (+100/-120)
The Sharks (36-32-7) are only two points out of the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference, and they also have a game-in-hand on the Predators (81 points) and the Kings (81 points). They'll try to take care of the lowly Blackhawks (28-35-14) this evening to inch closer to a postseason spot. Puck drop is slated for 10:00 p.m. ET from the SAP Center at San Jose in San Jose, CA.
The Blackhawks have been the best under team this season (46-31). With a lofty total of 6.5 goals, I will go ahead and play the under in San Jose tonight.
Neither offense has been playing well recently. Over the last 10 games, the Blackhawks are 31st in goals per 60 minutes (2.19), while the Sharks are just 25th (2.68). On the defensive side, Chicago ranks seventh in team save percentage (.902) during the 10-game stretch, and they also still boast the league's second-best penalty-killing unit at 83.77%.
With all of the young talent on the ice, I can understand why we have this high of a total. However, we have to draw the line somewhere. Let's lock in the under.
Bet: Under 6.5 Goals (-120)
Nashville Predators (+115) vs. Los Angeles Kings (-135) | O/U 6.0 (-102/-118)
The stakes are high in this game, but it's really quite a simple scenario. The winner of this Predators (36-31-9) versus Kings (31-26-19) showdown will hold the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. The NHL nightcap is set for 10:30 p.m. ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
These teams just played a 5-4 shootout thriller on Saturday, which Nashville won, but I expect to see the defenses tighten up with the stakes so extreme on Monday. That game was a bit of an anomaly, as six of the last nine meetings between the clubs have stayed under the pregame total.
Statistically, we have a couple of mid-tier defenses squaring off in this game. Over the last 10 games, the Predators are 11th in GAA (2.75), while the Kings are 16th (2.99). Los Angeles has allowed the fifth-fewest high-danger shots on goal (25) during the 10-game sample size, while Nashville is a modest 20th (36).
Both teams rank 19th or worse in high-danger shots on goal offensively in the last 10 games. Look for a low-scoring grinder of a game to close out Monday's slate. Give me the under.
Bet: Under 6.0 Goals (-118)
