Following Tuesday's massive 13-game NHL schedule, there are only two games on the docket tonight. Below, I'll dive into each of the contests from a sports betting angle and provide my top betting picks for each game. Here are my top NHL picks & predictions for Wednesday, March 11th.
Wednesday's NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Montreal Canadiens (+135) vs. Ottawa Senators (-160) | O/U 6.5 (-115/-105)
The Senators (32-22-9) return home following a successful five-game road trip, where they picked up points in every game courtesy of a 4-0-1 record. They'll host the Canadiens (35-18-10) this evening, who are on the heels of a 3-1 victory over the Maple Leafs last night. This Atlantic Division showdown is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON.
This should be an exciting matchup tonight between two playoff hopefuls. I expect to see some scoring, so I'll be on the over. Starting with the Habs, they used Jakub Dobes between the pipes in Tuesday's win, which means it's likely we'll see Sam Montembeault in the crease tonight. That's great news for over bettors, as Montembeault brings in a 3.43 GAA (54th) and a .872 SV% (56th). The well-rested Senators, who averaged four goals per game during their recent road trip, should pull their weight in getting the final score over the total.
On the other side of the ice, the Canadiens should find the back of the net a few times. The Senators have solid underlying defensive metrics, but one important stat stands out that has caused them issues this season: Ottawa is dead last in the league in team save percentage (.871). They'll take on a young, skillful Montreal offense that leads the league in shooting rate (13.38%). The last six meetings between these division rivals went over the total. That's a trend I expect to continue tonight.
Bet: Over 6.5 Goals (-115)
Washington Capitals (-120) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (+100) | O/U 6.0 (-115/-105)
The playoffs are likely out of the picture for both of these franchises. The Capitals (32-26-7) are seven points out of the final Wild Card spot, while the Flyers (29-23-11) are directly behind the Caps, sitting nine points out of the postseason race. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, PA.
I'll play the Capitals on the Moneyline. Washington has dominated this series in recent history, winning seven of the last eight meetings.
My biggest issue with the Flyers right now is their offense. This group is struggling mightily on the offensive end, ranking 32nd in goals per 60 minutes (2.05) and in high-danger shots on goal (21) over the last 10 games. Their power-play unit is just 30th in the NHL at 16.02%.
Washington's offense clearly has the higher ceiling in this matchup. Even though the Capitals are just 16th in goals per 60 minutes (3.19) over the last 10 games, they rank sixth in high-danger shots on goal (39) during the same period. They're due for an offensive breakout, like we saw in their 7-3 rout of the Flames on Monday. I like Washington to grind out a victory on the road tonight.
Bet: Capitals Moneyline (-120)
