NHL Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (11/5)

We’re back with another edition of my season-long NHL Same Game Parlay picks and predictions article for Tuesday’s loaded 11-game NHL slate. Last week, we cashed a -106 SGP to extend our winning streak, as Minnesota erased an early 2-0 deficit to wind up winning 5-3 on the road against Pittsburgh, covering +2.5 and cashing over 5.5 total goals.

Tonight, I’m taking us to the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York for an Atlantic divisional matchup between the Ottawa Senators vs. Buffalo Sabres. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NHL free bets and weekly analysis.

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Tuesday's NHL SGP: 

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Ottawa Senators (-120) vs. Buffalo Sabres (+100) | O/U 6.5 (+108/-132)

Over 5.5 Total Goals (-150)

Ottawa ranks seventh in goals scored per game through 11 matchups, averaging 3.82 per outing. The Senators have talent and depth on offense and draw a decent matchup against Sabres goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Luukkonen has a 3.16 GAA and sub .900 save percentage with a 3-4 record, surrendering three or more goals in four of seven starts in 2024.

Buffalo has cooled off a bit on offense lately but they did score four to five goals in six consecutive games. Tonight, the Sabres face Linus Ullmark in the crease, who has allowed three total goals in his last two starts combined against the Blues and Rangers. Ullmark did allow nine combined goals against the Canadiens and Golden Knights beforehand though, so we’ll buy a goal and insert over 5.5 total goals as the first leg of our NHL SGP.

Ottawa Senators +2.5 (-670)

We’re going to buy Ottawa at +2.5 as a slight moneyline road favorite against Buffalo. The Sabres have only recorded one win by more than a two-goal margin this season, which ironically came against the Florida Panthers.

The Senators have only lost one game by more than a two-goal deficit, back on October 12th during their second game played on the road against Montreal. Ottawa has better goaltending and a more talented offense, which is why this line is juiced at -700 odds. Let’s insert Ottawa +2.5 to get our SGP close to even odds.

SGP (-102)

We’re sticking with buying two goals on a moneyline favorite on the road against an inferior opponent, while dropping from over 6.5 to over 5.5 total goals in a game that could wind up with a frenzy of scoring plays.