North Carolina vs. VCU: NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament predictions and preview for North Carolina vs. VCU.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview: North Carolina vs. VCU

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

North Carolina 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Everything about North Carolina’s tournament outlook is limited by Caleb Wilson’s injury. The First Team All-ACC freshman was having a historic year before surgery ended his season in February, and without him, the Tar Heels enter the tournament with consecutive losses and major questions. Without Wilson in the lineup, this squad drops from 21st overall to 32nd, per Hoop Explorer, with the defense dropping from 20th to 40th. EvanMiya dropped the Tar Heels outside his top 45 without Wilson. Since Feb. 14, UNC ranks 38th on Bart Torvik. Wilson is obviously a big loss.

Henri Veesaar is the player who has to fill the void. The junior center put up 28 points and 17 rebounds in the loss to Clemson in the ACC Tournament and is a legitimate NBA-caliber interior presence who creates matchup problems by being able to score in the post, step out on the perimeter, and rebound at an elite rate. He and Seth Trimble are the most reliable contributors left. The rest of the supporting cast is a concern. The bench has combined for single-digit scoring in each of the last two games, and the second unit has not given Hubert Davis anything meaningful to work with when the starters are struggling.

The three-point defense is the other genuine problem. UNC ranks outside the top 200 nationally in opponent three-point percentage, and Clemson exploited it by shooting nearly 50% from deep in the ACC quarterfinals. Any opponent that can spread the floor and shoot will find open looks against this scheme. The Tar Heels also rank 344th in field goal rate allowed with few forced turnovers, so opponents will get shots up most possessions. When sorting for away/neutral games, UNC ranks 43rd, per Bart Torvik, with one of the biggest efficiency differences in home vs. non-home games, per Haslametrics.

KenPom still has North Carolina inside the top 30, and the wins above bubble metric is respectable, so the regular-season resume holds up. But this is not the same team it was in February with Wilson in the lineup, and a two-game skid entering the tourney alongside a documented defensive vulnerability makes trusting North Carolina difficult.

VCU 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Phil Martelli Jr. walked into Richmond in his first season as VCU’s head coach and delivered a second straight A-10 tournament championship, something the program had never done in consecutive years. The Rams went 27-7 overall and shared the regular-season title with Saint Louis at 15-3 before running through Pittsburgh, beating Duquesne, Saint Joseph’s, and Dayton to cut the nets down. They swept Dayton in the regular season and made it a clean 3-0 on the year in the championship game, winning 70-62 behind freshman Nyk Lewis’s 17 points and 11 rebounds. This is a deep, balanced team that refuses to let any one player carry the load. They sling it from dip and get to the charity stripe at a top-15 clip nationally. Seven players averaged at least seven points per game this year as the production is distributed and relentless. Lazar Djokovic and Terrence Hill Jr. swept the first-team All-A10 honors, the first pair of Rams teammates to do that in the same season. Hill, who also took home Sixth Man of the Year and Most Improved Player, leads the team at 14.1 points per game on 46 percent shooting and is the kind of shot-creating, mid-range bucket-getter who can impose his will at any point in a game. And he comes off the bench. Djokovic, a 13.8-point, 5.4-rebound junior forward, brings the length and versatility that makes the offense hard to guard. Lewis won A-10 Rookie of the Year and has been a genuine difference-maker on the boards. Brandon Jennings anchors a defense that leads the team with 57 steals on the year and earned All-Defensive team honors. The concern is that this team’s defense has been a real step down from last year’s Rams, ranking 60th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 27th in 2024-25, and sitting last in the A-10 in paint points allowed. Martelli Jr. plays a faster, higher-tempo style than predecessor Ryan Odom, which generates offense but also creates exposure at the other end. The combination of depth, experience, and tournament pedigree at this program gives VCU a meaningful floor, but the defensive ceiling will be tested quickly against an NCAA opponent with real size in the paint, where the Rams funnel opponents' shot attempts.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

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