March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Northern Kentucky vs. Houston
Northern Kentucky Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Marques Warrick |
15.6 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
18.3 |
17.6 |
20.2 |
2.3 |
3.5 |
| Sam Vinson |
9.0 |
4.4 |
2.0 |
13.4 |
11.1 |
15.4 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
| Trevon Faulkner |
6.1 |
2.7 |
0.6 |
8.8 |
6.7 |
9.4 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
| Xavier Rhodes |
6.7 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
9.4 |
9.6 |
12.3 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
| Chris Brandon |
5.6 |
10.9 |
0.6 |
16.4 |
6.1 |
17.0 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
| Trey Robinson |
6.3 |
4.5 |
1.3 |
10.8 |
7.6 |
12.1 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
| Hubertas Pivorius |
0.8 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
| Imanuel Zorgvol |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| A’lahn Sumler |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
| LJ Wells |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jake Evans |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Isaiah Mason |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Noah Hupmann |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Mitchel Minor |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cole Sherman |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Houston Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Marcus Sasser |
14.9 |
2.8 |
3.2 |
17.7 |
18.1 |
20.9 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
| Jarace Walker |
11.0 |
7.3 |
2.0 |
18.3 |
12.9 |
20.2 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
| J’Wan Roberts |
10.6 |
8.8 |
1.3 |
19.4 |
11.9 |
20.7 |
0.0 |
1.5 |
| Jamal Shead |
10.4 |
3.4 |
6.3 |
13.8 |
16.7 |
20.1 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
| Tramon Mark |
9.5 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
14.5 |
11.6 |
16.7 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
| Emanuel Sharp |
5.2 |
2.3 |
0.5 |
7.5 |
5.7 |
8.0 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
| Ja’Vier Francis |
2.0 |
1.8 |
0.1 |
3.7 |
2.0 |
3.8 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| Terrance Arceneaux |
4.0 |
2.8 |
0.7 |
6.8 |
4.7 |
7.5 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
| Reggie Chaney |
2.7 |
2.8 |
0.4 |
5.5 |
3.1 |
5.9 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| Ramon Walker |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Ryan Elvin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Darius Bowser |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Northern Kentucky vs. Houston Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Northern Kentucky
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Sam Vinson Under 12.5 Points |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
UB |
| Sam Vinson UNder 1.5 3Ps |
120 |
1 |
1.2 |
DK |
| Trey Robinson Under 1.5 3Ps |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
DK |
| Chris Brandon Over 8.5 Rebounds |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
Houston
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Jamal Shead Over 4.5 Assists |
-129 |
1.29 |
1 |
UB |
| Tramon Mark Under 5.5 Rebounds |
-106 |
1.06 |
1 |
FD |
| J’wan Roberts Under 9.5 Rebounds |
-113 |
1.13 |
1 |
FD |
| Jamal Shead Under 12.5 Points |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
| Jarace Walker Over 1.5 Assists |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
MGM |
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