The Stanley Cup Finals are here and we have two teams very worthy of hoisting that beloved trophy. Can the Oilers break the Canadian curse and claim the first championship for the country in over 30 years, or will the Panthers finally claim their first championship in franchise history? Let’s analyze and look at the best bet for Game 1.
Saturday's Best NHL Bet
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Edmonton Oilers (+124) at Florida Panthers (-148) | O/U 5.5 (-115/-105)
There is a big difference between the Oilers we saw earlier in the playoffs and the one that is four wins away from hoisting the Stanley Cup. During the first two series, they were aggressive at the start of games and would get multiple-goal leads. Frequently, they would pull up on the gas, resulting in blown leads and games.
They did that a couple of times against the Stars, but we saw them flip a switch in the final two games of the Western Conference Finals. They battled for pucks in the neutral zone, attacked the net, and grabbed second chances on missed shots. They still maintain their dominant puck possession, including 42% in their offensive zone.
The offense has been fantastic throughout the playoffs, and they have the top four point leaders: Connor McDavid (31), Leon Draisaitl (28), Evan Bouchard (27), and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (20). Zach Hyman leads the playoffs with 14 goals as well.
Some credit does have to go to goalie Stuart Skinner. He was benched for two games during the Vancouver series, but he has been phenomenal and had a .947 save percentage across the final three games.
The Panthers we saw in the final three games of the Eastern Conference Finals were as close to the regular season team as we had seen in these playoffs. They had been second during the regular season in expected goal share (56.93%), and up until Game 3 of the ECF, it was at 47% in the playoffs. They fired that up to over 60% with 37 shots on goal per game in the final three.
They are still a highly defensive-centric team. They have been physical throughout the playoffs and have led by far with 685 hits, just like they did in the regular season. They also got in the way of the puck and were second in blocked shots.
They have top forward lines that can compete with anyone; Matthew Tkachuk has 19 points in the playoffs, Carter Verhaeghe has eight goals, and Sam Reinhart also has eight.
Don’t forget goalie Sergei Bobrovsky who has allowed just 2.20 per game in the playoffs.
Both teams have played against excellent defenses along the way, and they themselves have been playing well defensively, as well, especially in their previous series. Edmonton's puck possession will not be as dominant as it has been because the Panthers' defense does very well at taking it away and playing physical defense. That puck possession balance will help them grab the first game of this series.
Pick: Panthers Moneyline (-148)
