We’ve got an intriguing ranked SEC matchup between the Ole Miss Rebels and the Auburn Tigers in Jordan-Hare Stadium at Auburn.
Ole Miss has won their last three games against Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU and will now look to put another ranked opponent on their resume. Meanwhile, Auburn has won three of their last four games, with the lone loss coming against Georgia, which isn’t so bad.
Auburn defeated Arkansas two weeks ago and is coming off a bye week while Ole Miss obliterated LSU at home. Some say having momentum is good when going up against a team on a bye week, while others believe the rest helps a team more in these spots.
I say, forget about all those trends and dive into the actual numbers to see how this game plays out.
- Opening Line: Ole Miss -1.5, O/U 65.5
- Current Line: Ole Miss +2.5, O/U 66
- Last meeting: October 24, 2020, Auburn 35, Ole Miss 28
Opposing defenses can’t stop the Ole Miss offense. The Rebels are scoring 41.9 points per game with 541.1 yards on the offensive end. Meanwhile, the defense can’t stop anything, allowing 28.3 points per game and 420.3 yards per game this season.
Matt Corral was banged up after rushing 30 times against Tennessee, but against LSU, he made sure to get out of bounds and slide instead of getting beat up. He looks healthy and has thrown for 15 touchdowns with just one interception all year. Corral also has nine rushing touchdowns and is one of the Heisman hopefuls at this time.
Ole Miss has struggled to run block with their offensive line, but that hasn’t played a factor in the run game. The offense is still getting the job done.
However, Auburn’s defense is elite, and they do some things very well. The Tigers allow just 19.7 points per game, with just 340.6 yards per game allowed. The coverage and pass rush has held the opposition to 217.7 yards per game in the air, and the rushing defense also hasn’t been bad either.
The last time Ole Miss faced a tough defense like Auburn was against Alabama. In that game, Ole Miss finished with 21 points, and those 21 points were generous.
Meanwhile, Auburn’s offense averages 35.4 points per game behind an inconsistent Bo Nix. However, Nix is a tough player to stop when he’s on his game, and with Ole Miss allowing over 420 yards per game, there’s reason to believe Nix has what it takes at home.
- Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
- Under is 7-0 in Rebels last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Auburn’s defense doesn’t get enough credit. The Tigers’ defensive line is elite, and the coverage has done great things all year. Against Corral, Auburn will keep him off-balanced find ways to get stops against this high-powered offense.
On the other hand, Ole Miss allows nearly 80 more points per game this season and more than a touchdown than Auburn. Auburn will be electric behind Nix at home, who has been getting better throughout the season and against SEC play.
Nix has just two interceptions on 211 throws and knows how to escape pressure and create chances for himself and the team, even on third and longs.
I like Auburn to pull out the win at home with a solid defensive performance.
Pick: Auburn -2.5 (-110)
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