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PGA Betting Picks and Guide: The Northern Trust (2021)

by August 17, 2021
Jordan Spieth

The playoffs have finally arrived.

Following what has been an intense 3-4 final weeks of the regular season which had no shortage of drama, the 125 best golfers (per the FedEx Cup points) remain as the playoffs begin this week in New Jersey. With a field that will cut be down to 70 following this event, let’s take a look at the field as it stands and find the value where it remains.

Let’s take a closer look.

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Previous Winners of The Northern Trust

  • 2020: Dustin Johnson
  • 2019: Patrick Reed
  • 2018: Bryson DeChambeau
  • 2017: Duston Johnson
  • 2016: Patrick Reed

Course Preview (Liberty National Golf Course)

Located in Jersey City, NJ, Liberty National features backdrops of Manhatten as players try to navigate the 7,410 yards. The length won’t go unnoticed, as the course plays the 7th longest on Tour this season.

Featuring bentgrass surfaces throughout, players will notice some differences from the last time they played here in 2019. The most notable changes have come on #2, #9, #13, and #15, where a combination of bunkers and tee box length was added into the mix.

Relevant Betting Stats

  • Driving Accuracy
  • Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 Yards
  • SG: Approach
  • Approach: 200+ yards
  • Approach: Greens in Regulation

Outright PGA Betting Picks

Jordan Spieth (+1700 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

There are not many, if any, players on Tour that are hotter than Jordan Spieth.

Coming into this week as the #2 ranked player in the world, Spieth hasn’t missed a cut since January and, over his last five events, doesn’t have a single finish outside the top 20. He also has two solo 2nds in his last five as well.

Going back over his starts since the beginning of April, Spieth’s finishes become even more impressive with five top 10s and a win to go along with those two aforementioned seconds.

A quick look at the metrics shows just how good his form has been, as he ranks inside the top 10 on tour in SG: Total (1.457, SG: Around the green (.433), and putts per round (28.16).

As far as course history here at Liberty National, Spieth has three starts since 2013, including a T19, T19, and a strong showing while on the winning President’s Cup team here in 2017.

If Spieth can start strong on Thursday, there’s no reason he can’t go super low in a field of heavy hitters he’ll be anything but intimidated by as his confidence continues to surge.

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Johnny Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.