Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M: NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament predictions and preview for Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview: Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Saint Mary’s 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Saint Mary’s head coach Randy Bennett has done this before. Another West Coast Conference regular season title, a 27-5 record, and a KenPom ranking inside the top 25. The Gaels have built one of the most consistent non-power-conference programs in the country, and they’re doing it again in 2026.

What makes this team different from some previous editions is the depth of offensive firepower. Paulius Murauskas led the WCC in scoring and has been one of the most efficient scorers in the country all season. Andrew McKeever leads the conference in rebounding with his 7-3 frame and has been a consistent double-double threat. Mikey Lewis, who poured in 31 points against Gonzaga in the regular-season finale to clinch the title, gives them a high-volume, high-efficiency perimeter weapon who can get scorching-hot in a hurry. Freshman Dillan Shaw can contribute double-figure rebounding nights.

Saint Mary’s leads the nation in free-throw percentage and ranks in the top 10 in rebound margin nationally. They rank 15th in offensive rebound rate, leading to a lot of second-chance opportunities.
The question is whether the WCC schedule has prepared Saint Mary’s for the physicality of the second weekend. The Gaels have had some credible wins this year, but the jump from WCC competition to what they’ll see in the Round of 32 is real. In Quad I games, the Gaels went 1-4 with the 157th ranked offense, coming in at 62nd overall. Vanderbilt crushed Saint Mary’s by 15 in the Gaels’ only high-major game. Saint Mary’s ranks 361st in the Haslametrics' away-from-home rating. Despite the concerns, what also has always been true is that Bennett’s teams are among the most efficiently prepared in the country, and this roster has the firepower to win on any given weekend.

Texas A&M 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Bucky McMillan took over a program that lost all of its experienced rotation players to graduation or the transfer portal and built something worth talking about in year one. The Aggies went 21-11 and 11-7 in the SEC, locked up the 6-seed in the conference tournament, then got blown out by Oklahoma in the second round in a performance that reflected this team’s ceiling problem more than the full body of work.

Rashaun Agee emerged as A&M’s best player after Mackenzie Mgbako departed early in the season. Agee averaged 14.7 points and 8.8 rebounds per game and carried the frontcourt through a difficult SEC schedule. Rylan Griffen caught fire offensively at the right time, posting 45 points and hitting nine threes over the final two regular-season games. Pop Isaacs, the former Creighton and Texas Tech transfer, brings proven Quad 1 production from his previous stops and gives McMillan a secondary creator off the perimeter. Five different players average double-digit points, and this is one of the most experienced teams in college hoops. The aggressive press defense is the identity of this team. Bucky Ball ranked inside the top 40 in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency this season with turnovers and limited threes.

What the Oklahoma loss confirmed is that when the offense has a bad shooting night, and the rebounding advantage they rely on evaporates against mobile, switching defenses, they are toast. McMillan’s system is designed to play fast and attack off transition, which creates irregular pressure but also leads to the kind of turnovers that plagued the Aggies in the first half against the Sooners. But against a program unfamiliar with their play, the Aggies could surprise opponents with their style. The defensive foundation gives them a realistic path to a first-round win. How far they go after that depends on which Griffen and Isaacs show up.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

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