The SEC Tournament kicked off yesterday in Nashville, Tennessee as one of the most anticipated tournaments among the power conferences. As the tournament currently projects, 13 different SEC teams are in the tournament with the conference ranking as one of the best in the KenPom era. Even the No. 16-ranked South Carolina got some heralded wins and might've been a tournament team if it was in the ACC. But the focus is on the top.
Auburn is currently the consensus favorite to win the SEC tournament at +150, followed close behind by Florida (+265), Alabama (+425) and Tennessee (+600). Not only are these top SEC teams, but all four rank in the top six nationally. There's a decent chance your National Champion is in that group.
Johni Broome is battling with Cooper Flagg for the John R. Wooden Award. Auburn is fighting with Duke for title favorites but there is no question that the SEC is the best conference this year. We still have to wait one more day for the double-bye top-four-seeded teams to play.
In this article, we're focusing on previewing the SEC Tournament’s second round, so let's get to it.
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Thursday's Best SEC Tournament College Basketball Bets
Arkansas vs. Ole Miss
Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Ole Miss -3.5 | Total: 144.5
After handling business against South Carolina - and perhaps locking up their tournament bid - Arkansas is greeted by No. 9 seed Ole Miss Runnin' Rebels as a near two-possession underdog. They ran hot to start the year, defeating BYU and Louisville and starting hot with a 4-0 SEC record to begin tournament play. Since January 15th, Ole Miss went 6-8, ranking 40th in Division I (DI) hoops.
Overall, this team ranks in the top 30 both offensively and defensively. They take care of the ball at one of the highest clippings in the nation, manufacturing shots at a high clip with the 59th-best field goal rate in basketball. They also do a great job of forcing turnovers, ranking 17th in defensive field goal rate, as they rarely allow quick transition points.
What I'm most curious to watch in this matchup is Arkansas' offense against Chris Beard's defense. It's not like the Razorbacks have been quite efficient offensively, ranking 74th overall this season and 14th in SEC play. They won't surprise with talented shooters and missing Adou Thiero and Boogie Fland are clear knocks on their game.
It seemed like John Calipari's squad ran out of steam yesterday, scoring 11 points in the final 10 minutes. Asking them to come back again with their fast pace against a top-30 unit that lines up well is a lot to ask. I trust Ole Miss to force turnovers and take advantage of them by turning them into buckets. Arkansas has the talent, but I simply think they will be out-coached here.
Prediction: Ole Miss 73, Arkansas 68
Best Bet: Ole Miss -3.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Texas vs. Texas A&M
Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Texas A&M -6.5 | Total: 138.5
After upsetting Vanderbilt yesterday, Texas is back fighting for their tournament lives in a must-win matchup against Texas A&M. The Longhorns rode the backs of Tre Johnson and Tramon Mark - 19 points each - and converted 25 free throws en route to a victory.
The defense Texas will face tonight is going to be a bit different. The Aggies are a top-10 defensive unit that will force Texas to take outside looks while forcing turnovers and allowing no second-chance looks. Even when opponents get offensive boards, they're converting at the fifth-lowest clip in the nation against the Aggies.
Offensively, Texas A&M lives and dies by the offensive board. That keeps them alive a lot of the time considering they do so at the highest clip in the nation. When these two teams met most recently, the Aggies went 12-23 from the perimeter but couldn't convert their interior looks and still lost 70-69 after shooting 36% from inside the arc.
In matchup number one, the Aggies only shot 2-of-19 from deep but hauled in 11 offensive boards and shot 66% inside the arc en route to an 80-60 dub.
Tonight, I expect the Aggies to ride their positive offensive momentum to a victory. The Longhorns send opponents to the charity stripe at a top-60 rate. The Aggies’ shooting won't blow anyone away, but with the extra rest and schematic advantage, I expect them to get theirs, even on an off-shooting night. It may end up being closer than a seven-point game, but I trust the Aggies' offensive unit.
Prediction: Texas A&M 75, Texas 67
Best Bet: Texas A&M Team Total Over 72.2 Points (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mississippi State vs. Missouri
Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Missouri -3.5 | Total: 156.5
After absolutely dominating LSU, Mississippi State gets to face off against Missouri in the quarter-finals of the SEC tournament. These teams only faced off once this year - an impressive victory by Missouri on the road as they shot 47% from deep en route to an 88-61 victory. That's what they're capable of.
Missouri boasts a top-five offensive unit that ranks even higher in the last month of play. They manufacture looks with the highest free throw rate in the nation but excel at scoring everywhere on the court. They can shoot the lights out from deep if given the opportunity. Three different players shoot above 40% from deep, and that's not even including Tamar Bates, who is at 39.7%.
The problem is their defense. Despite scoring 80+ points in their final three games, they also allowed 90+ in, resulting in three straight losses. In the last month, their overall defensive efficiency ranks outside the top 150, allowing the 282nd-worst effective field goal rate.
Against the Bulldogs, Missouri will have to worry about Josh Hubbard, who went nuclear yesterday against LSU and tallied 24 points in the first matchup between these two teams. What else will be tough for Missouri is keeping Mississippi State off the offensive glass.
Missouri is a sub-300 ranked defensive rebounding unit and the near-proximity battle favors Mississippi State. It's not as if Mississippi State will exactly be hyper-efficient, but against the Missouri defense, they just might be. Given the dominance of Missouri's offense and the high field goal rate both teams should exhibit, I'm riding the over here.
Prediction: Missouri 84, Mississippi State 81
Best Bet: Over 155.5 Points (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Oklahoma vs. Kentucky
Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Kentucky -6.5 | Total: 159.5
The nightcap once again features the best game of the night in the SEC as Oklahoma faces Kentucky after an impressive victory over Georgia. Despite trailing late, Oklahoma capitalized on a 16-0 late run to earn their spot in the quarter-finals and help their tournament resume all the more as they attempt to lock up a tournament bid. After watching this game, it's hard to doubt Oklahoma and their recent play.
Jeremiah Fears is fearless (bet you've never heard that one before) as he led the Sooners to a victory with a 29-point effort. It's hard to doubt what Porter Moser has built in Norman and almost no team has played better on a neutral court than Oklahoma this year. The Sooners get nearly 22% of their points from the charity stripe with a high free throw rate and can score nearly anywhere on the court. They're the ninth-most efficient offense in transition and won't be limited pace-wise by Kentucky.
Kentucky will counter with an electric offense of their own. Despite losing Jaxson Robinson, the Wildcats are still a hyper-efficient squad under Mark Pope that ranks eighth in ShotQuality offense. They will take what's given to them while taking care of the ball and running at a fast clip. Kentucky won't allow many second-chance looks but they do foul at a relatively high clip, so advantage Oklahoma there.
When these teams went toe-to-toe in their only matchup of the season, Oklahoma led late before dropping the game 83-82. Otega Oweh went off for 28 points down low while both teams shot above 62% from inside the arc.
While the near-proximity defense isn't anything to write home about for Oklahoma, I do expect them to keep this game close, similar to before. They are still playing for their tournament lives for all they know and I trust Porter Moser to scheme up something nice and at least keep this one close.
Prediction: Kentucky 84, Oklahoma 82
Best Bet: Oklahoma +6.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
