Today’s NFL looks much different than the game I (and maybe you) grew up with. Gone are the days of smash-mouth football. The league has consistently tweaked the rules to promote offense and encourage teams to move the ball through the air. Because of those changes, quarterback has become the most valuable position to fill when building a team. A team’s fortunes (and betting line) can move south in a hurry if their franchise QB goes down, and the experts agree.
“Absolutely (the QB) has become more important as time has gone on. It’s a combination of the rules and how dynamic they are now,” said the head oddsmaker of a well-known sportsbook. “The best QB is as impactful as a full touchdown on the spread. Others (just) a point or two.”
But how do the experts make that line adjustment if a backup is forced into action?
“The adjustment all depends on the capability of the backup,” said Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of superbook operations for Westgate. “There’s no specific formula, analytical analysis or … algorithm that’s activated. It’s based off of our opinion, which includes (the backup’s) past performances, experience and the opinions of about five (experts) in the room.”
Those opinions, however, are coming from people who have watched, listened to and analyzed more football than anyone not collecting a paycheck from the NFL office or any of the league’s franchises. I’d go as far as to say those “opinions” are really “facts.”
Today’s NFL looks much different than the game I (and maybe you) grew up with. Gone are the days of smash-mouth football. The league has consistently tweaked the rules to promote offense and encourage teams to move the ball through the air. Because of those changes, quarterback has become the most valuable position to fill when building a team. A team’s fortunes (and betting line) can move south in a hurry if their franchise QB goes down, and the experts agree.
“Absolutely (the QB) has become more important as time has gone on. It’s a combination of the rules and how dynamic they are now,” said the head oddsmaker of a well-known sportsbook. “The best QB is as impactful as a full touchdown on the spread. Others (just) a point or two.”
But how do the experts make that line adjustment if a backup is forced into action?
“The adjustment all depends on the capability of the backup,” said Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of superbook operations for Westgate. “There’s no specific formula, analytical analysis or … algorithm that’s activated. It’s based off of our opinion, which includes (the backup’s) past performances, experience and the opinions of about five (experts) in the room.”
Those opinions, however, are coming from people who have watched, listened to and analyzed more football than anyone not collecting a paycheck from the NFL office or any of the league’s franchises. I’d go as far as to say those “opinions” are really “facts.”
With that in mind, I took a look at the current depth charts of all 32 teams to get a feel for how much their starter is worth against the spread should they go down and the backup has to take the field. Using a combination of analytics, rankings and expert opinions, I charted each team’s quarterback situation based on the current depth charts and the probable line movement for each.
I compiled the depth charts and ranked each starting QB from 1 to 32 in multiple categories, using a hybrid of QB Rating, YPA (Yards Per Attempt), win/loss record, rushing yards and completion percentage. I then did the same for the backups. Once that was complete, I added rankings from my own personal opinion, along with what I heard from the experts when I was researching the topic. Lastly, I calculated the difference between the rankings between the starter and backup for each team, and then used some math to get that number to translate to the values you see in the chart.
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| TEAM |
STARTER |
BACKUP |
VALUE |
| LAC |
Justin Herbert |
Chase Daniel |
7 |
| KC |
Patrick Mahomes II |
Chad Henne |
6.5 |
| DEN |
Russell Wilson |
Josh Johnson |
6.5 |
| LV |
Derek Carr |
Nick Mullens |
6 |
| TB |
Tom Brady |
Kyle Trask |
5.5 |
| BUF |
Josh Allen |
Case Keenum |
5.5 |
| CIN |
Joe Burrow |
Brandon Allen |
5.5 |
| ARI |
Kyler Murray |
Colt McCoy |
5 |
| DAL |
Dak Prescott |
Cooper Rush |
5 |
| LAR |
Matthew Stafford |
John Wolford |
5 |
| CHI |
Justin Fields |
Trevor Siemian |
4.5 |
| BAL |
Lamar Jackson |
Tyler Huntley |
4.5 |
| GB |
Aaron Rodgers |
Jordan Love |
4.5 |
| MIN |
Kirk Cousins |
Kellen Mond |
4.5 |
| NE |
Mac Jones |
Brian Hoyer |
4 |
| PHI |
Jalen Hurts |
Gardner Minshew II |
4 |
| JAC |
Trevor Lawrence |
C.J. Beathard |
4 |
| DET |
Jared Goff |
Tim Boyle |
4 |
| CLE |
Jacoby Brissett |
Josh Rosen |
4 |
| IND |
Matt Ryan |
Nick Foles |
3.5 |
| HOU |
Davis Mills |
Kyle Allen |
3 |
| NYJ |
Zach Wilson |
Joe Flacco |
2.5 |
| TEN |
Ryan Tannehill |
Malik Willis |
2.5 |
| NYG |
Daniel Jones |
Tyrod Taylor |
2.5 |
| SF |
Trey Lance |
Jimmy Garoppolo |
2 |
| MIA |
Tua Tagovailoa |
Teddy Bridgewater |
2 |
| NO |
Jameis Winston |
Taysom Hill |
2 |
| WAS |
Carson Wentz |
Taylor Heinicke |
2 |
| ATL |
Marcus Mariota |
Desmond Ridder |
1.5 |
| CAR |
Baker Mayfield |
Sam Darnold |
1 |
| PIT |
Mitch Trubisky |
Kenny Pickett |
1 |
| SEA |
Drew Lock |
Geno Smith |
0.5 |
Riches to Rags
The entire AFC West tops the chart. All four starting quarterbacks (Herbert, Mahomes, Wilson and Carr) hold the fortunes of their offenses in their hands. If any one of them goes down, the line should move about a full touchdown. Tampa Bay (Brady), Buffalo (Allen) and Cincinnati (Burrow) would also have the line move nearly a TD if their franchise QB couldn’t suit up.
Contender to Pretender
Arizona (Murray), Dallas (Prescott) and the Rams (Stafford) all have Super Bowl aspirations. Those dreams, and the point spread, would take a major hit if any one of those signal callers went down. Chicago (Fields), Baltimore (Jackson) and Green Bay (Rodgers) also fall into this range of a 4.5 to 5-point line move.
Lost Their Edge
Starting QBs who figure to move the line a little more than a field goal include New England (Jones), Philadelphia (Hurts), Jacksonville (Lawrence), Detroit (Goff) and Cleveland (Brissett). Inexperienced starters, along with the Lions’ Goff, seem to be the common thread once we start getting further down the list. The Colts (Ryan) fall into this tier as well but have an experienced backup in Nick Foles which closes the gap a bit.
Out Of Range
Teams that will drop 2.5 to 3 points, or in theory get into field goal range one less time per game are Houston (Mills), Tennessee (Tannehill), the Jets (Wilson) and the Giants (Jones). Young, unproven offensive leaders or seasoned, older veterans top these franchise depth charts and fill the backup roles so the delta between narrows to three points or less. Expect to see less of a line move here than at the top of the chart.
Take Your Pick
The last eight teams in the chart don’t have much of a talent gap between the guy calling the signals and the guy on the sidelines in the baseball cap holding a clipboard. For that reason, teams like Miami, Carolina, Washington and Seattle won’t see much line movement should their starter go down. A two-point swing at most should be expected.
I think the key takeaway here is that you can never put too much emphasis on who is running the show on offense. You can have all the talent in the world at the other ten positions on the field, but if you don’t have a proven leader under center you should feel much less comfortable about backing a side or a total.
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